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2013 Chess World Cup Predictions

The 2013 World Cup is coming up in Tromso, Norway in 1 month.  Norway seems to be the past, present, and future for modern chess: besides having the World #1, it held the super strong Norway Chess tournament (Category XXI) less than 2 months ago, and will hold the 2014 Chess Olympiad in a year.

 

Information on this year's World Cup:

Players: 128

Qualification Methods:

  • Previous Tournament Results (World Championship, World Cup, Women's World Championship, World Junior, National Championships, Zonals and Continental Championships)
  • FIDE Rating
  • Nominees (by FIDE tyrant President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov or by the Tournament Organizer)
Tournament Type: Knockout, Single Elimination, 2 games per match (until the Final), top half vs bottom half reversed (#1 seed plays #128 seed, #2 plays #127, ... , #64 plays #65,etc.),  with rapid/blitz/armageddon tiebreaks as necessary.


Matches:

2 games each (until the 4-game Final), Time Control: 40/90, SD/30, inc/30

Tiebreak 1: G/25 inc/10 (2 games)

Tiebreak 2: G/10, inc/10 (2 games)

Tiebreak 3: G/5, inc/3 (2 games)

Tiebreak 4: Armageddon, G/5 vs G/4, inc/3 from move 61 (1 game)

 

Prizes (after 20% FIDE deduction, each in USD):

Round 1 Elimination (64 players): $4,800 each

Round 2 Elimination (32 players): $8,000 each

Round 3 Elimination (16 players): $12,800 each

Round 4 Elimination (8 players): $20,000 each

Round 5 Elimination (4 players): $28,000 each

Round 6 Elimination (2 players): $40,000 each

Round 7: Winner: $96,000 and entry to the 2014 Candidates Tournament.  Loser: $64,000, entry to 2014 Candidates.

 

The winner and runner-up of the World Cup determine 2 of the 8 spots in the 2014 World Championship Candidates Tournament.  New this year, the rating seeds into the Candidates Tournament must also play in either the World Cup or Grand Prix Series.  Therefore, World #2 Levon Aronian and World #3 Vladimir Kramnik are playing in the World Cup.  World #1 Magnus Carlsen will either become the World Champion this November (by beating WC Vishy Anand in their match) or become automatically seeded into the 2014 Candidates.

 

World Cup Calendar:

Sun, Aug 11: Round 1, Game 1

Mon, Aug 12: Round 1, Game 2

Tue, Aug 13: Round 1, Tiebreaks

Wed, Aug 14: Round 2, Game 1

Thu, Aug 15: Round 2, Game 1

Fri, Aug 16: Round 2, Tiebreaks

Sat, Aug 17: Round 3, Game 1

Sun, Aug 18: Round 3, Game 2

Mon, Aug 19: Round 3, Tiebreaks

Tue, Aug 20: Round 4, Game 1

Wed, Aug 21: Round 4, Game 2

Thu, Aug 22: Round 4, Tiebreaks

Fri, Aug 23: Round 5, Game 1

Sat, Aug 24: Round 5, Game 2

Sun, Aug 25: Round 5, Tiebreaks

Mon, Aug 26: Round 6, Game 1

Tue, Aug 27: Round 6, Game 2

Wed, Aug 28: Round 6, Tiebreaks

Thu, Aug 29: Rest Day

Fri, Aug 30: Round 7, Game 1

Sat, Aug 31: Round 7, Game 2

Sun, Sep 1: Round 7, Game 3

Mon, Sep 2: Round 7, Game 4

Tue, Sep 3: Round 7, Tiebreaks

 

American Players (8):

Hikaru Nakamura, 2775, Qualified by Rating, #6 seed, plays #123 WGM Deysi Cori (2439) in Round 1

Gata Kamsky, 2763, Qualified by Rating, #8, plays #121 IM Lou Yiping (2483) in Round 1

Alexander Onischuk, 2667, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #55, plays #74 Eduardo Iturrizaga (2642) in Round 1

Ray Robson, 2628, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #84, plays #47 Andrei Volokitin (2688) in Round 1

Larry Christiansen, 2584, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #95, plays #33 Laurent Fressinet (2708) in Round 1

Alejandro Ramirez, 2583, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #97, plays #31 Evgeny Tomashevsky (2709) in Round 1

Gregory Kaidanov, 2577, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #99, plays #30 Alexander Areschenko (2709) in Round 1

Alexander Shabalov, 2553, Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #106, plays #23 Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (2719) in Round 1

Conrad Holt, 2530Qualified through 2013 US Championship, #112, plays #17 Nikita Vitiugov (2734) in Round 1

 

Players absent in the World Cup from the July Top 60 FIDE List (either because they chose not to play in the 2013 WC or they did not qualify):

#1 Carlsen 2862

#8 Anand 2775

#10 Topalov 2767

#30 Ding Liren 2714

#34 Naiditsch 2710

#41 Almasi 2707

#43 Wang Yue 2705

#45 Van Wely 2701

#48 Kasimdzhanov 2699

#50 McShane 2697

#53 Rublevsky 2695

#54 Rapport 2693

#59 Short 2688

 

My picks/predictions (predicted winners in bold, upsets have a *):

Round 1 (Round of 128, players are GMs unless noted otherwise):

1. Aronian vs. 128. Markov (no title)

2. Caruana vs. 127. IM Akash

3. Kramnik vs. 126. FM Bwalya

4. Grischuk vs. 125. FM Bjelobrk

5. Karjakin vs. 124. Sebbar (no title)

6. Nakamura vs. 123. WGM Cori Smile

7. Gelfand vs. 122. Rahman

8. Kamsky vs. 121. IM Yiping Smile

9. Mamedyarov vs. 120. IM Shoker

10. Dominguez vs. 119. El Gindy

11. Ponomariov vs. 118. IM Hansen*

12. Hao vs. 117. IM Qingnan

13. Svidler vs. 116. Ushenina

14. Adams vs. 115. IM Yunguo*

15. Leko vs. 114. Johannessen

16. Morozevich vs. 113. Sambuev

17. Vitiugov vs. 112. Holt Frown

18. Giri vs. 111. Salem*

19. Ivanchuk vs. 110. Duda

20. Radjabov vs. 109. Cori

21. Andreiken vs. 108. Pouria

22. Korobov vs. 107. Durarbayli*

23. Vachier-Lagrave vs. 106. Shabalov Frown

24. Nepomniachtchi vs. 105. Yi

25. Navara vs. 104. Mareco

26. Bacrot vs. 103. Agedestein

27. Alekseev vs. 102. Adhiban

28. Jakovenko vs. 101. Paragua*

29. Liem vs. 100. Barbosa

30. Areshchenko vs. 99. Kaidanov* Smile

31. Malakhov vs. 98. Hansen*

32. Tomashevsky vs. 97. Ramirez* Smile

33. So vs. 96. Ipatov

34. Fressinet vs. 95. Christiansen Frown

35. Riazantsev vs. 94. Felgaer

36. Vallejo Pons vs. 93. Flores*

37. Eljanov vs. 92. Brunello*

38. Wojtaszek vs. 91. Fier*

39. Moiseenko vs. 90. Adly

40. Movsesian vs. 89. Hammer*

41. Shirov vs. 88. Yifan*

42. J. Polgar vs. 87. Ortiz Suarez

43. Jobava vs. 86. Kravtsiv

44. Akopian vs. 85. Ngoc Truong Son*

45. Bruzon vs. 84. Najer*

46. Volokitin vs. 83. Robson Frown

47. Chao vs. 82. Postny

48. Ragger vs. 81. Popov*

49. Inarkiev vs. 80. Rafael Leitao

50. Granda vs. 79. Melkumyan

51. Kryvoruchko vs. 78. Negi*

52. Bologan vs. 77. Hracek*

53. Dreev vs. 76. Azarov

54. Fedorchuk vs. 75. Dubov

55. Onischuk vs. 74. Iturrizaga* Frown

56. Matlakov vs. 73. Smeets*

57. Shimanov vs. 72. Jones*

58. Romanov vs. 71. Filippov*

59. Safarli vs. 70. Amin

60. Sasikiran vs. 69. Lupulescu

61. Zvjagintsev vs. 68. Swiercz*

62. Khismatullin vs. 67. Kobalia*

63. Yangyi vs. 66. Beliavsky

64. Lysyj vs. 65. Istratescu

 

Round 2 (Round of 64):

1. Aronian vs. 64. Lysyj

2. Caruana vs. 63. Yangyi

3. Kramnik vs. 67. Kobalia

4. Grischuk vs. 68. Swiercz

5. Karjakin vs. 60. Sasikiran

6. Nakamura vs. 59. Safarli Smile

7. Gelfand vs. 71. Filippov

8. Kamsky vs. 72. Jones Smile

9. Mamedyarov vs. 73. Smeets

10. Dominguez Perez vs. 74. Iturrizaga*

12. Hao vs. 53. Dreev

13. Svidler vs. 77. Hracek

15. Leko vs. 50. Granda

16. Morozevich vs. 49. Inarkiev

17. Vitiugov vs. 81. Popov

19. Ivanchuk vs. 46. Volokitin

20. Radjabov vs. 84. Najer

21. Andreiken vs. 85. Ngoc Truong Son

23. Vachier-Lagrave vs. 42. J. Polgar

24. Nepomniatchi vs. 88. Hou Yifan

25. Navara vs. 89. Hammer*

26. Bacrot vs. 39. Moiseenko*

27. Alekseev vs. 91. Fier

29. Liem vs. 93. Flores

33. So vs. 97. Ramirez Frown

34. Fressinet vs. 98. Hansen*

35. Riazantsev vs. 99. Kaidanov Frown

43. Jobava vs. 107. Durarbayli

47. Chao vs. 111. Salem

54. Fedorchuk vs. 118. IM Hansen

78. Negi vs. 115. IM Yunguo

92. Brunello vs. 101. Paragua


Round 3 (Round of 32):

1. Aronian vs. 33. So

2. Caruana vs. 98. Hansen

3. Kramnik vs. 35. Riazantsev

4. Grischuk vs. 29. Liem*

5. Karjakin vs. 92. Brunello

6. Nakamura vs. 27. Alekseev Smile

7. Gelfand vs. 39. Moiseenko

8. Kamsky vs. 89. Hammer Smile

9. Mamedyarov vs. 24. Nepomniachtchi*

12. Hao vs. 21. Andreikin*

13. Svidler vs. 20. Radjabov

15. Leko vs. 47. Li Chao

16. Morozevich vs. 17. Vitiugov

19. Ivanchuk vs. 78. Negi

23. Vachier-Lagrave vs. 74. Iturrizaga

43. Jobava vs. 54. Fedorchuk

 

Round 4 (Round of 16):

1. Aronian vs. 16. Morozevich*

2. Caruana vs. 15. Leko

3. Kramnik vs. 19. Ivanchuk*

5. Karjakin vs. 21. Andreiken

6. Nakamura vs. 43. Jobava Smile

7. Gelfand vs. 23. Vachier-Lagrave

8. Kamsky vs. 24. Nepomniachtchi Frown

13. Svidler vs. 29. Liem


Round 5 (Round of 8):

2. Caruana vs. 7. Gelfand

5. Karjakin vs. 13. Svidler

6. Nakamura vs. 19. Ivanchuk Smile

16. Morozevich vs. 24. Nepomniatchi


Round 6 (Round of 4):

2. Caruana vs. 6. Nakamura Smile

5. Karjakin vs. 16. Morozevich


Round 7 (Finals):

5. Karjakin vs. 6. Nakamura

Final Score: 2.5-1.5

A preview of the World Cup Final? Karjakin vs Nakamura in Zug earlier this year (photo from Chessdom)


* I put a lot of upsets for several reasons: the matches are short (2 matches) -> anything can happen, people I like/have heard of, close ratings, youth, randomness, etc.  I don't expect my predictions to be good.

 

My pick to win: World #6 Sergey Karjakin (2776), who has been near the top of the rankings for a while, but has never competed for the World Championship title, despite winning several strong tournaments including Norway Chess, World Rapid Championships, Wijk aan Zee, Tal Memorial, Dortmund, Russian Superfinal, etc.).  He excels at rapid chess, which is quite helpful for the tiebreaks.

  

Is this former chess prodigy due to win this year's World Cup? (photo from Chessdom)

 

Stay tuned for the World Cup in a month!

Grant

Comments


  • 14 months ago

    Ocapi777

    why are y'all ranking Nakamura so high, because he's from US??? lol American Exceptionalism

  • 15 months ago

    EvanTheTerrible

    I have Nakamura beating Morozevich in the final. I made a bracket for the tournament. :)

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