Opening with most wins?

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17th December 2007, 04:18am
#1
by Clownfish
Uppsala Sweden
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 204

There must be one of the standard openings that is regarded as "best", since it has lead to most wins in tournaments, in clubs, on the internet, etc. Even though you might use a palette of openings, to challenge your opponent with something less common, or for fun, there should be ONE that is statistically shown to be the most succesful. Anyone knows of such statistics?

17th December 2007, 05:05am
#2
by scandinaviandefense
Michigan United States
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 459
I don't think there is a "best" opening, but some are superior to others.
17th December 2007, 01:48pm
#3
by Fromper
Boynton Beach, FL United States
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 357

If there was one "best" opening that won the most, grandmasters would never play anything else. After all, their careers are based on winning as many games as possible. The fact that GM's play a wide variety of openings pretty much disproves your point that one opening must be "best".

 

Generally speaking, at the master and grandmaster level, there are some openings that are known to be "safe" (high drawing percentage), and others that are known to give better winning chances, but are "risky" (low drawing percentage, high winning percentage, but also high losing percentage).

 

For instance, in the world championship played a few months ago, there were probably more games in the Petroff (Petrov) Defense than any other opening, and most of those games ended in draws. The players with the black pieces intentionally chose that opening, because they consider it a safe way to try for a draw with black. If they were trying for a win instead of a draw, they'd have gone with something riskier instead, like the Sicilian or Ruy Lopez. This would give them a better chance to try for a win, but also a greater chance of losing and much lower chance of drawing.

 

--Fromper 


17th December 2007, 02:42pm
#4
by PawnFork
St. Louis United States
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 324

Best for white or best for black?  The same masters who try to go over old variations to search for new variations are also doing their  best to undermine the novelties of their fellows.  The result is that there are openings and lines within openings that are "hot" for a while, much as there are trends in fashion.  When one line is refuted, for the time being it is dropped. 

 

As often as not, what you play depends on what you do not want to play.  White does not want to play a Queen's gambit, and so moves e4.  Black does not want to see a Spanish and replies c5.  White loathes the main line of the Sicilian and moves ... 

 

Openings you steerr clear of have books written by Basman.  These include the St. George, the Grob, etc.

 

Unless you really enjoy doing a lot of book study, avoid the most popular openings too, starting with the Spanish/Ruy Lopez.  But if I were you, I would opt to start looking for solid moves I understand.  It is not as easy as it sounds.  Frankly, there is nothing as frightening as learining a line from a book, and have your untutored opponent do something completely different.  Unless you are used to ad-libing, you will be in danger of going into a panic and giving your opponent an important psychological advantage. 

 

Good Luck!

17th December 2007, 03:02pm
#5
by RN9
Toronto, Ontario Canada
Member Since: Oct 2007
Member Points: 157

Statistically the best openings for white and black are as follows:
                          White
Queens Gamit Win/Tie % 58 1.d4 d5 2.c4
Blackmar Diemer Gambit Win/Tie % 67 1.d4 d5 2.e4
Rut Lopez (Spansih Game) Win/Tie % 56.5 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5

                         Black

 Sicilian Defense Win/Tie % 48.5 1.e4 c5
Nimzo-Indian Defense Win/Tie % 48.5 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 37 3.Nc3 Bb4
Robatsch Defense (Modern Defense) Win/Tie % 47.5 1.e4 g6

 All of this information was found in Bruce Pandolfini's book Treasure Chess. 

17th December 2007, 03:16pm
#6
by Fromper
Boynton Beach, FL United States
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 357

??? The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit has the best winning percentage in the game???

 

I'd love to know where he got that from. I'm sure it's based on a database of games, but are they only master games? Grandmaster games? Anybody with a pulse?

 

How about if we only consider games at the master or higher level where the two players are within 200 rating points of each other? I'd say that would be the best way to determine how good an opening really is.

 

Just for the record, I'm not one of those anti-Blackmar-Diemer snobs. I play the gambit myself, but I'd never try to convince anyone that it's sound, let alone the best opening in the game. 

 

--Fromper 


17th December 2007, 03:24pm
#7
by Elwood
Senoia, GA United States
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 117

I found this site (or one very close) about two years ago when I started playing chess (not loosing every game).  I think it answers your question.

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/adam.bozon/stats.htm

 

It also shows what openings tend to be more drawish.

17th December 2007, 03:32pm
#8
by NM Reb
Lisbon Portugal
Member Since: Sep 2007
Member Points: 1606
I wouldnt trust that bdg % because very often thats an opening played by a stronger player against a weaker player so the stats are misleading for sure.
17th December 2007, 04:18pm
#9
by Elwood
Senoia, GA United States
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 117

The best opening is the one that works for you.

 

17th December 2007, 09:21pm
#10
by Fromper
Boynton Beach, FL United States
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 357
Elwood wrote:

The best opening is the one that works for you.

 


 That's definitely the best advice yet.

 

Looking at that statistics page was interesting. The opening I've been doing poorly with because it doesn't really suit my personal playing style is the Blackmar-Diemer Gambit, which is supposedly white's second best opening overall, or the best by winning percentage (it has the lowest drawing percentage). The openings I'm taking up to replace it are stuff like the Colle and Van Geet (Dunst), which are supposedly among white's worst.

 

The point is that you have to play what suits your style. All of these openings are playable. You'll probably learn from your losses if you take up openings that go against your style, so that's a plus. It's all a matter of taste, style, and experience.

 

Personally, I don't do well with the wild, attacking gambits, but I've learned a lot from them. So I'll keep playing them in some of my practice games that don't matter, but switch to quieter openings that are more my style for my tournament games and some of the practice games. But that's just me.

 

--Fromper 


18th December 2007, 01:15am
#11
by Clownfish
Uppsala Sweden
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 204

Great with some discussion!

Statistics, like that link, is what I wanted to see. It is of course evident that if everyone always played ONE opening, because it was considered the best, suddenly changing to another opening would probably give a win, because your opponent would be unexperienced with that opening. So, it depends on you, on your opponent and so on, making The best opening is the one that works for you.

an obvious truth... Still, looking at which openings have been succesful, risky, safe etc, will give you a hint on which path to take, which openings are likely to go with your style in the long run... 

Thanx for interesting input!


18th December 2007, 01:34am
#12
by thegab03
Paris Ireland
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 1792
CoolFor me,people play an opening that they can understand,both on attack as on the defence with a pretty decent chance of a possible win!For me the Ruy Lopez(Spanish)or the Italian offers a wide and interesting game that will give one a good taste about chess statagy and genuine pleasure to play!!!!Wink
18th December 2007, 02:33am
#13
by silentfilmstar13
Medford, OR United States
Member Since: Sep 2007
Member Points: 2082
The argument that there is not one best opening is complete devoid of logic.  We can certainly agree that in most positions there is a correct move, a move that holds a slight statistical edge, perhaps.  We are not capable of calculating every possibility from the beginning position with a depth of, say, 200 moves.  Just because we can't find it, though, doesn't mean it isn't there.
18th December 2007, 05:59am
#14
by Clownfish
Uppsala Sweden
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 204
silentfilmstar13 wrote: The argument that there is not one best opening is complete devoid of logic.  We can certainly agree that in most positions there is a correct move, a move that holds a slight statistical edge, perhaps.  We are not capable of calculating every possibility from the beginning position with a depth of, say, 200 moves.  Just because we can't find it, though, doesn't mean it isn't there.

 Agreed!

A mathematically and/or statistically BEST is not the same as a subjective and/or experience-dependent BEST.... 


18th December 2007, 07:50am
#15
by KingLeopold
Scottsdale, AZ. United States
Member Since: Oct 2007
Member Points: 318
RN9 wrote:

Statistically the best openings for white and black are as follows:
                          White
Queens Gamit Win/Tie % 58 1.d4 d5 2.c4
Blackmar Diemer Gambit Win/Tie % 67 1.d4 d5 2.e4
Rut Lopez (Spansih Game) Win/Tie % 56.5 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5

                         Black

 Sicilian Defense Win/Tie % 48.5 1.e4 c5
Nimzo-Indian Defense Win/Tie % 48.5 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 37 3.Nc3 Bb4
Robatsch Defense (Modern Defense) Win/Tie % 47.5 1.e4 g6

 All of this information was found in Bruce Pandolfini's book Treasure Chess. 


 I believe the Queen's Gambit win/tie % was 68% making it the #1 wonning opening


18th December 2007, 07:57am
#16
by KingLeopold
Scottsdale, AZ. United States
Member Since: Oct 2007
Member Points: 318
Fromper wrote:

??? The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit has the best winning percentage in the game???

 

I'd love to know where he got that from. I'm sure it's based on a database of games, but are they only master games? Grandmaster games? Anybody with a pulse?

 

How about if we only consider games at the master or higher level where the two players are within 200 rating points of each other? I'd say that would be the best way to determine how good an opening really is.

 

Just for the record, I'm not one of those anti-Blackmar-Diemer snobs. I play the gambit myself, but I'd never try to convince anyone that it's sound, let alone the best opening in the game. 

 

--Fromper 


 He states he got it from Bruce Pandolfini's book Treasure Chess


18th December 2007, 08:40am
#17
by Fromper
Boynton Beach, FL United States
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 357
KingLeopold wrote: Fromper wrote:

??? The Blackmar-Diemer Gambit has the best winning percentage in the game???

 

I'd love to know where he got that from. I'm sure it's based on a database of games, but are they only master games? Grandmaster games? Anybody with a pulse?

 

How about if we only consider games at the master or higher level where the two players are within 200 rating points of each other? I'd say that would be the best way to determine how good an opening really is.

 

Just for the record, I'm not one of those anti-Blackmar-Diemer snobs. I play the gambit myself, but I'd never try to convince anyone that it's sound, let alone the best opening in the game. 

 

--Fromper 


 He states he got it from Bruce Pandolfini's book Treasure Chess


 When I said that I wanted to know where he got that from, I meant that I wanted to know where Pandolfini got it from. What sources was he using to determine the information to put in his book?

 

--Fromper 


18th December 2007, 12:32pm
#18
by PawnFork
St. Louis United States
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 324

who knows?  So, what is your style?  What style are you looking for?

 

Reading an opening book is good to give you ideas on how to set objectives.  Once you have that the power relationships are universal.  Ratings do mean more than opening.

 

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