Does Glicko Rating System Work Well With CC?

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12th April 2009, 07:36pm
#41
by bullrock
Columbia, South Carolina United States
Member Since: Jun 2008
Member Points: 132
ichabod801 wrote:

...the problem may not be in the system, but in the constants.

The constants are set up here such that most players have an RD near or above 100.  If that is how chess.com wants it to be, then there is no problem.

8th May 2009, 05:05am
#42
by ExtraBold
Sheffield United Kingdom
Member Since: Nov 2008
Member Points: 341
bullrock wrote:
ichabod801 wrote:

...the problem may not be in the system, but in the constants.

The constants are set up here such that most players have an RD near or above 100.  If that is how chess.com wants it to be, then there is no problem.

How do you "want" a particular value of a constant - it's not like a flavour of ice cream.

What, surely, we all want is the value of constants that gives the best rating system. If RDs go too high, you get too much fluctuation around your true strength. If they go too low, there is not enough movement to reflect a genuine improvment. So there is a delicate balance to strike.

My impression is that RDs are too high and there is too much fluctuation. But it ought to be possible to do some reasonably advanced diagnostics on how well the ratings predict the results of games, to fine tune the constants.


8th May 2009, 05:42am
#43
by bullrock
Columbia, South Carolina United States
Member Since: Jun 2008
Member Points: 132
ExtraBold wrote: If RDs go too high, you get too much fluctuation around your true strength.

Yes, and since the average RD on this site 130 (see the thread about inflated ratings for the link to chess.com page that shows the average players' stats) and achieving a low RD requires that you play hundreds of simulataneous games, high fluctuation is something we must all deal with on this site.  The admins of this site have so far been unwilling to have a debate on this subject.  In the thread about inflated ratings a staff member commented once or twice and then abruptly dropped out of the conversation as soon as my link showing the average RD of chess.com players appeared.

18th May 2009, 07:08am
#44
by ExtraBold
Sheffield United Kingdom
Member Since: Nov 2008
Member Points: 341

Strange. To go to all the effort of using a Rolls Royce system like Glicko, and not tweaking the constants to get the best results. It's like using a Ferrari to pull a caravan. 

18th May 2009, 09:48am
#45
by richie_and_oprah
Marie Byrd Land International
Member Since: Feb 2009
Member Points: 1861

Just wanted to add that I have since come around in my thinking and now agree fully that this system is not a good fit.

13th October 2009, 05:00am
#46
by linksspringer
Scotland, UK Netherlands
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 6368

How about this: a guy doesn't play here for over a year and his Glicko goes over 320. He wins a game against a higher rated opponent and his rating goes up by more than 500 points. Doesn't that sound ridiculous?
Even if you think that an average Glicko of 130 is OK, it seems to me that the Glicko of a "returning" player should not be as high as a player who is just starting on chess.com....

13th October 2009, 07:46am
#47
by ichabod801
Maryland United States
Member Since: Dec 2008
Member Points: 777
linksspringer wrote:

How about this: a guy doesn't play here for over a year and his Glicko goes over 320. He wins a game against a higher rated opponent and his rating goes up by more than 500 points. Doesn't that sound ridiculous?
Even if you think that an average Glicko of 130 is OK, it seems to me that the Glicko of a "returning" player should not be as high as a player who is just starting on chess.com....


 Is it ridiculous? In order to get that big a shift, he would have to beat someone over 400 points higher than he is (and someone with a low RD). Isn't that evidence that in the past year he has learned enough to improve his rating by that much? If he has learned that much, he deserves the rating boost. If he hasn't learned that much, he'll lose the ratings boost when he loses the next couple games against similarly rated opponents.

13th October 2009, 08:22am
#48
by SerbianChessStar
Belgrade Serbia
Member Since: May 2009
Member Points: 2476
richie_and_oprah wrote:
bullrock wrote:
richie_and_oprah wrote:

  


What do you consider a high RD?  Mine right now is 50 or so.   I play between 30 and 48 games at a time.  Some take longer than others to complete.  Each day I finish between 3 and 12 games, and in 2 months have completed approx. 440 games for an average of roughly 7 games/day.


 Your RD is 109..

The lowest i'v seen on this site is 46 so far..

I agree though.. Ouachita is 150 RD.. thats ridiculous.. no wonder hes so high in rating.. (but then he can drop REALLY low... even a draw insures him to drop over 70 rating)

They should lower the RD for every1.. so new comers RD's a bit lower then it should be and every1 elses is lower then it should be etc..

13th October 2009, 08:35am
#49
by erik
Mountain View, CA United States
Member Since: May 2007
Member Points: 10022

i'm not opposed to tweaking the RD settings some. i am currently at RD 81. i play a lot of chess here (obviously). what should my RD be? what would be more fair in your opinion?

here is my current rating graph of 1 year:

 

does that fluctuate too much? i dunno. i know that my actual SKILL doesn't change that much, but i know that the amount of effort i put into my games, and the amount of stress i feel, does fluctuate that much. plus, i know i have gotten a lot better with all of the study and play that i do.

personally i am not a ratings watcher. i don't care about my rating as anything more than a rough indicator. perhaps that is reflected in our loose RD. maybe we should tigthen it up. but with ratings you can never win :) people want their ratings to go up faster, and down more slowly. right now we get some complaints of people's ratings dropping too much, but we never get complaints about them rising :) if we change it, we might start getting more complaints. i dunno.

we've also complemplated shaving 100 points off of everyone's rating and making the starting rating 1000. but if we do that, and we lower the RD... how many games before an 1800 rated player is accurately rated?

13th October 2009, 09:58am
#50
by ichabod801
Maryland United States
Member Since: Dec 2008
Member Points: 777

Well, if you shaved everyone's rating by 100 points, the 1800 would be as accurately rated as they were before the shave, because the ratings are relative. If you dropped the starting rating by 200 at the same time, that would merely mess up the old player's ratings relative to the new player's ratings. I have no idea how long that would take to balance out. It would depend on the rate of new players coming in and the number of games per rating period. I could try to run some simulations on that.

I haven't thought about the ratings deviations as much, so I'm not sure of the effects of lowering everyone's RD. I have been wondering about the length of the ratings period compared to the typical rate of play here. If the ratings period is a day, but I'm only finishing a game every two or three days, my RD is going to keep floating up because of the periods where I don't have a completed game. If the rating period is a week then that's not a factor. 

14th October 2009, 11:11am
#51
by ExtraBold
Sheffield United Kingdom
Member Since: Nov 2008
Member Points: 341

erik, I think the problem is not people whining about their ratings going down, but quite simply the question of accuracy.

It's great having tournaments for 1400-1600 players, etc, but if the ratings are unnecessarily inaccurate, this is undermined.

You're right that effort varies greatly, and this suggests a higher RD than would otherwise be best. My guess is that it is too high even for that.

Can I suggest an experiment. Calculate what everybody's ratings would be today if the RD increased, say, 5 times more slowly. And see if those ratings more accurately predict match results than the current ratings do.

14th October 2009, 04:09pm
#52
by jonnyjupiter
Northamptonshire England
Member Since: Jul 2008
Member Points: 693

I'm beginning to change my mind on this topic.

My last 10 games:

Average opponent rating: 1927. Results: 8 wins, 2 draws

Starting rating = 2468. Current rating = 2424

I lost 103 points from my 2 draws (against opponents rated 2015 and 1813), but because they were my first results in a while, my RD had increased significantly. My wins all came in quick succession, so my RD kept falling, making each win worth less. It seems a bit tough that with this record I've actually dropped 44 ratings points overall. It looks like I'm going to draw another couple of games against 2000-2100 players, so my rating is going to take another hammering.

Conclusion: I think the constant for calculating the RD should be reduced for turn-based chess. I'll no doubt change my mind when the current system works in my favour...

15th October 2009, 06:30am
#53
by ichabod801
Maryland United States
Member Since: Dec 2008
Member Points: 777

@jonnyjupiter: A 2468 in a ten game match with a 1927 has an expected score of 9.5. Therefore 8 wins and 2 draws is a slight underperformance (just based on the average), and a slight ratings drop is reasonable.

15th October 2009, 03:54pm
#54
by erik
Mountain View, CA United States
Member Since: May 2007
Member Points: 10022

ok - looking for INTELLIGENT replies to this topic:

http://www.chess.com/forum/view/community/math-people-only-changes-to-how-much-ratings-change

basically, i think that a target RD for someone who plays a LOT of chess on Chess.com should be 30-50. i play quite a bit and i'm 81.

come give your opinion!

17th October 2009, 04:27am
#55
by jonnyjupiter
Northamptonshire England
Member Since: Jul 2008
Member Points: 693
ichabod801 wrote:

@jonnyjupiter: A 2468 in a ten game match with a 1927 has an expected score of 9.5. Therefore 8 wins and 2 draws is a slight underperformance (just based on the average), and a slight ratings drop is reasonable.


Thanks for that - it does help me to understand it. I did feel that I was playing poorly for one of the draws, so if I had won that my rating would have stayed pretty much at a level.

Fair enough then - I underperformed and thus my rating dropped appropriately. Hey ho.

17th October 2009, 04:33am
#56
by Kacparov
Torun Poland
Member Since: Feb 2009
Member Points: 6436

I play very much, can anyone please tell me what's my RD? I guess about 70.

17th October 2009, 04:34am
#57
by Ian_Sinclair
Taree Australia
Member Since: Dec 2007
Member Points: 2090
Kacparov wrote:

I play very much, can anyone please tell me what's my RD? I guess about 70.


Here u go mate! :-)

Current: 2162
Today's Rank: #1724 of 76,709
Percentile: 97.8%
Glicko RD: 71
Highest: 2274 (13 Jul 2009)
Lowest: 1344 (24 Feb 2009)
Avg. Opp.: 2044
Best Win: 2342 (Idir-Z)
Worst Loss: 1759 (ArminBHF)
17th October 2009, 04:38am
#58
by Kacparov
Torun Poland
Member Since: Feb 2009
Member Points: 6436

What a good guess from me!

17th October 2009, 05:00am
#59
by Ian_Sinclair
Taree Australia
Member Since: Dec 2007
Member Points: 2090

Hahaha Yes, very good guess indeed!

17th October 2009, 05:15am
#60
by Kacparov
Torun Poland
Member Since: Feb 2009
Member Points: 6436

Maybe it would be even better if asked a bit earlier :)


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