How likely is it to be a fluke to be playing a perfect chess game 100% of the time?  To be making the right moves at the right times so your plans are always working out and the opponents plans always failing?

Not very but...I've played against some tremendous players who know the openings, strategies and tactics.  The best you can do is match them.

Not likely, this is what I thougth as well. Sure there's a snowballs chance in hell it's a fluke, but a better explanation is that there's a method to the madness.