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Following on from: http://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/carlsen-and-the-quest-for-2900
I thought I'd preview the Gashimov Memorial, which starts in on April 20th, with Carlsen potentially looking to break through the 2900 barrier.
According to http://www.kosteniuk.com/EloCalc/elo.php
with his opponents being:
at an ELO average of 2760, and with his current offical rating of 2881 (2882.3) Live, Carlsen will need to score 6.64 to maintain his rating.
BTW, this will be a Category XXII (2780) field, very strong indeed!
Broken down, we can expect him to finish with the following ratings based on the following results:
It seems very unlikely he will reach 2900 in this tournament. He'd need to produce a performance of 8.5/10, which would be an ELO tournament performance well in excess of 3000.
This could well be a tough tournament. Karjakin and Mamedyarov are coming off strong Candidates performances, while Caruana and Nakamura will be chomping at the bit, after missing out. Radjabov is an unknown quantity, as his rating has dropped a lot in the past year, but he may now be playing closer to his old 2793 strength.
I'd like to see Nakamura have a really good tournament. A rivalry between him and Carlsen would really put chess back on the map. A Red Bull v G-star Raw showdown!
The form Karjakin is in right now, he might very well win this tournament. Carlsen is probably going to beat Naka twice, Mamedyarov, Radjabov and Caruana once and draw the rest, or lose one to Caruana or Karjakin. If he loses to Karjakin, it would make for a close fight. It would be interesting to see how Radjabov fares in this tourney, as that might change all predictions.
I think Carlsen will draw his games against Nakamura, especially with black it's unusual that he wins, it has only happened once the last three years, and that was last time when Nakamura blundered away the win. Caruana and Mamedyarov are both comparatively uncomfortable opponents for him and I think he will lose against one of them. Then score three wins, and end up with a +2 result. Maybe enough to win as usual but I will predict Caruana as the surprise winner 0.5 ahead of or equal with Carlsen. Funny that Karjakin has minus scores against all other players in the field, and I have a feeling he will have a bad tournament this time.
Over the last five years, Carlsen has won most of the tournaments he has played, with an occasional second and more rarely a third.
From 2009 to date, Carlsen has played in 23 classical tournaments. He won 13, finished second five times, third four times, and fifth once. These were all "Super-GM" tournaments with no more than three "local" and weaker entrants. This is an incredible record against fields which rarely included players under 2700.
Going by rating expectations, Carlsen could win the tournament while losing rating points, as in the title match with Anand. But he has shown a focus, a sense of responsibility to the title since winning it. Granted, that was only Zurich, but that was the highest average rating of any tournament in history, and he won the classical segment with 3 wins and two draws, a clear two points ahead of second.
I want to see what Carlsen shows us in the Gashimov Memorial.
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