14747 Players currently online!
Man vs. Machine - good luck!
Turn-based games at any time!
Vote for the best move to win!
Do you have what it takes?
Backgammon, Yatzy, and more!
Sharpen your tactical vision!
Get advice and game insights!
Learn from top players & pros!
View millions of master games!
Your virtual chess coach!
Perfect your opening moves!
Test your skills vs. computer!
Find the right private coach!
Can you solve it each day?
Bring it all together!
Beginners, start here!
Make friends & play team games!
News from the world of chess!
Search all Chess.com members!
Find local clubs & events!
Who's the best of your friends?
Read what members are saying!
Following on from: http://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/carlsen-and-the-quest-for-2900
I thought I'd preview the Gashimov Memorial, which starts in on April 20th, with Carlsen potentially looking to break through the 2900 barrier.
According to http://www.kosteniuk.com/EloCalc/elo.php
with his opponents being:
at an ELO average of 2760, and with his current offical rating of 2881 (2882.3) Live, Carlsen will need to score 6.64 to maintain his rating.
BTW, this will be a Category XXII (2780) field, very strong indeed!
Broken down, we can expect him to finish with the following ratings based on the following results:
It seems very unlikely he will reach 2900 in this tournament. He'd need to produce a performance of 8.5/10, which would be an ELO tournament performance well in excess of 3000.
This could well be a tough tournament. Karjakin and Mamedyarov are coming off strong Candidates performances, while Caruana and Nakamura will be chomping at the bit, after missing out. Radjabov is an unknown quantity, as his rating has dropped a lot in the past year, but he may now be playing closer to his old 2793 strength.
I'd like to see Nakamura have a really good tournament. A rivalry between him and Carlsen would really put chess back on the map. A Red Bull v G-star Raw showdown!
The form Karjakin is in right now, he might very well win this tournament. Carlsen is probably going to beat Naka twice, Mamedyarov, Radjabov and Caruana once and draw the rest, or lose one to Caruana or Karjakin. If he loses to Karjakin, it would make for a close fight. It would be interesting to see how Radjabov fares in this tourney, as that might change all predictions.
I think Carlsen will draw his games against Nakamura, especially with black it's unusual that he wins, it has only happened once the last three years, and that was last time when Nakamura blundered away the win. Caruana and Mamedyarov are both comparatively uncomfortable opponents for him and I think he will lose against one of them. Then score three wins, and end up with a +2 result. Maybe enough to win as usual but I will predict Caruana as the surprise winner 0.5 ahead of or equal with Carlsen. Funny that Karjakin has minus scores against all other players in the field, and I have a feeling he will have a bad tournament this time.
Over the last five years, Carlsen has won most of the tournaments he has played, with an occasional second and more rarely a third.
From 2009 to date, Carlsen has played in 23 classical tournaments. He won 13, finished second five times, third four times, and fifth once. These were all "Super-GM" tournaments with no more than three "local" and weaker entrants. This is an incredible record against fields which rarely included players under 2700.
Going by rating expectations, Carlsen could win the tournament while losing rating points, as in the title match with Anand. But he has shown a focus, a sense of responsibility to the title since winning it. Granted, that was only Zurich, but that was the highest average rating of any tournament in history, and he won the classical segment with 3 wins and two draws, a clear two points ahead of second.
I want to see what Carlsen shows us in the Gashimov Memorial.
"Bobbing for Dlugy W/ Host GM Max Dlugy"
Vintage Soviet Russian Set Pictorial
by goodknightmike a few minutes ago
by bobbylobbybrink a few minutes ago
by BattleChessGN18 2 minutes ago
Starting Out v. Move by Move
by jlconn 3 minutes ago
by batgirl 4 minutes ago
What is Your Repetoire?
by CyberPhantom 6 minutes ago
The Bullet Chess Handbook
by MorraMeister 10 minutes ago
by ylblai2 14 minutes ago
11/30/2015 - The Art of Breaking Through
by coolguy2007 17 minutes ago
Game doesn't load, but continues to search.
by chesslion65 19 minutes ago
Why Join | Chess Topics |
Help & Support |
© 2015 Chess.com
• Chess - English
We are working hard to make Chess.com available in over 70 languages. Check back over the year as we develop the technology to add more, and we will try our best to notify you when your language is ready for translating!