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@pellik: There is evidence I use to convince myself of my opinion, but of course, we all probably have disagreements as to what counts as evidence.
For me, just the fact that I have seen lots of grandmaster blunders, whether in tournament games or in bullet, suggests to me that we can expect extremely basic errors to happen once in a blue moon, though extremely rarely. It is probably due to the sort of temporary blindness we all get, like when we mispronounce a word, even though we know very well the correct way to pronounce it. It just happens, for some people more than others.
Although it's true that you can argue that perhaps blunders are more likely to come when you are under pressure, or feel tension (which might more often happen against a strong player; for instance, when GM Stripunsky hung his bishop and rook against GM Onishcuk, maybe it was because he was nervous playing Onischuk), it's one assumption against another -- it's just as easy to claim that it might actually be more likely for a grandmaster to make such a basic mistake against an amateur (but again, it is still ridiculously unlikely), simply because if he feels overconfident in his position then he might not be quite as careful as he would be if he had a harder game.
The above paragraph is the only counter argument I can find against the paragraph above that. I can not repeat enough that no matter what the psychological circumstances are, it will always be extremely unlikely for this kind of thing to happen; but again, I am not arguing for likely; I am arguing for possible.
It's not just 'under-pressure'. There is no pressure. The GM can simply follow basic positional considerations and the 1300 will fall apart. Blunders for GMs are when you are so busy calculating that you forget about something simple, or miss that a formerly undefended square is now defended, etc. When the GM can win 100% of the time without needing to calculate complicated variations or search for an advantage he is just not going to commit a serious blunder.
Another consideration is that even if there is some tiny chance for such an upset it is quite possible that in all of human existance there will never be enough games between 1300s and 2700s for such a thing to occur.
Apparently a trip to Starbucks can change this.
Again pellik, it's just one assumption against another.
I just know, from my experience from playing people much weaker than me (indeed, even people around 1300 once in a while), that you sometimes get into these closed-ish or symmetrical-ish positions where, although you want your opponent to just give you an obvious blunder, the nature of the position forces you to take a more grinding approach. Remember that, of course, as good as a great player is, all they can do is try to provoke a mistake, and exploit it. If the position doesn't give many opportunities like that, it won't necessarily happen like magic.
Also, I totally agree that what you describe is the most common way a GM would make a blunder; however, I would not go the extra step and say that any other circumstances in which a GM would make a blunder are absolutely nonexistent. Sometimes you're trying to attack on the kingside, play Qg4, and forget about that queen on a4 black had that's covering it. It's simply temporary blindness that anyone is capable of.
Games like Stripunsky-Onischuk, or even Petrosian-Bronstein, seemed to be, essentially, unprovoked blindness. In fact, in the Petrosian game, Petrosian had a fantastic position as white, and was grinding his opponent in the usual fashion. However, he simply forgot that the knight was controlling d6 (I think the queen was hung on d6), and in fact, when you look at it, it is sort of tricky in a way -- sometimes your eyes play tricks like that on you, especially if you're in the mindset that your position is "too dominating" for one of your pieces to actually be attacked.
I find it funny how people say...hey theres a chance that the gm will blunder...Well yeah there is a one in a million chance and there is a guarantee that the 1300 will positionally (if not outright blunder) blunder within the first 5-6 moves of the game.
In that position, the perfect move would have been a accepted draw offer 49 moves ago
Another option: 1300 could randomly choose his next move and so with probability around 1/20^60 he will play the best move every time-and he will win or at least draw the game.
No, a 1300 does not play randomly, he very deliberately plays bad moves because he thinks they're good.
In a game with 1300 ranked player with 2700 ranked player; worry is to be done by 2700 ranked player, other wise it shall be most entertaining game, as result is known to both sides, before start of game.
The problem is that 1300 could not recognize or exploit such blunders by 2700s if they happened. And neither example you site is even a 2700 player at the time.
That's the problem? Well, I think he could, if they were simple enough!
Of course, I know that there is often this psychological energy where the weaker player feels like his opponent can't blunder, so when that person does blunder the weaker player gets nowhere near realizing it was a mistake, but I don't think that will apply 100% of the time.
I think it's at least as tough of an assumption that a 1300 won't see that simple blunder purely due to this psychological effect than the assumption that once in a while, this effect might not work.
No more infinite monkey discussion? Nobody wants to discuss whether an elephant would win a fight against an ant 100% of the time? Come on guys!
Would an elephant sized ant beat an elephant in a fight?
Would an ant sized elephant beat an ant in a fight?
Yes to the first, no to the second.
Looks like pound for pound the ant wins eh.
Actually an elephant sized ant couldn't exist - it would asphyxiate itself.
Elephant sized ants are suicidal, TIL.
It also wouldn't be able to move.
Yes, an inconvenient side effect of being dead.
Ok then, how about an elephant vs a swarm of ants with total ant mass equal to one elephant mass.
Google calculations give me ~1.5 million ants.
"Giant ants were the terror of the movie Them! (1954). Rajesh and Howard realize giant ants would be a cool new method of transportation. But Sheldon Cooper is right: unfortunately physics determines that giant ants cannot exist on our planet as we know it."
Spock made a brief appearance in the movie. If giant ants aren't possible, they must have shrunk the people.
An elephant is not much the fighting animal... it probably wouldn't recognize the danger in time.
also, 1.5 million ants are way more flexible than an elephant! There are just so many ways they can split and swarm... how will he block 10,000 of them coming up his nostril? while 20,000 more are busy tickling an armpit, 5000 busy bothering the end of his digestive canal, and 15,000 more crawling up an ear? This could drive anyone crazy!
Piece value in chess: 9 for a queen, 10 for a couple rooks, 12 for four minor pieces - in total, 31 pawns.
Now, how would a setup of King + usual pieces, standing on their first line, fare against an array of King + 31 pawns where the black king stands on e8 and the pawns occupy the whole of the 7th, 6th, 5th and 4th ranks except for, say, d4?
I remind you that each pawn can make a double jump on its first move!! Monstrous indeed :-)
I'd take that against a 2700 player any day of the week - hey! Material is even and he even gets white :-) he should be happy (true that I'm no 1300, but I promise to patzer him a couple pawns at some point...)
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