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17 straight draws...
A 1300 rated player will NEVER defeat a Super GM 2700 in a normal game.
Show me such a result from a "normal" OTB game with sensible time controls and I will happily eat humble pie.
Robin Moss FM
Why are you paying for a membership when you can get it for free as an FM?
Ah OK, you should join Team England. http://www.chess.com/groups/home/team-england
Find all games where 2700+'s lost. Including overlooked mates. queen blunders etc.
Could a 1300 realistically have put together any of the winning games?
If so, show me.
Not sure of his exact rating at the time but:
But look at the actual game, Rooperi asked for one where a 1300 could find the moves.
With quadrillions of "tries," possibly. Otherwise, no.
All of the above are great reasons why the chance would be extremely low -- I don't disagree these put the odds laughably against the 1300; I'm just saying that this doesn't mean zero chance. Let's say there is a 1 in 10000 chance the 1300 reaches the Gelfand position or something of the same level of advantage for white. And even here, we'll say that it's extremely unlikely that the 1300 will even win that. However, if he has even a 1 in 5000 chance of winning that position, something, then eventually, the 1 in 5 million shot may occur with enough tries.
Of course, this comes with the assumption that both components, the scenarios I have marked 1 in 10000 and 1 in 5000, are possible -- that's what I believe, for reasons given in earlier posts. If that is the case, then they simply have to both occur at the same time for the upset to happen, represented above.
What changed? Now you agree it won't happen?
I'm not sure on the number -- could be 1 in 10000, could be 1 in 1000000000000000.
Scottrf lol :-)
Elubas probably something in between these two...
I had not seen that game before, what was Karpov thinking about? Guess you would have to ask him.
Apparently it was a 'blindfold' game.
Estimating probabilities above 90% and below 10% are very difficult for people in general.
I really doubt this would happen often, but maybe as a miracle?
So many posts, so little information. The answer is yes. There is about 0.032% chance of a 1300 player beating a 2700 player.
That's roughly a one-in-3000 chance, which is a whole lot better than any state lottery (thousands of times better!) and even better than your chances of getting a four-of-a-kind in 5-card-stud poker (which is about 1/4,000), much less a royal flush (which is much worse, at 1/650,000).For reference and information on how to make these calculations yourself, look up "Elo Rating System" on wikipedia.
There's a whole bunch of better information than "look in wikipedia"
Once the rating difference grows much beyond 400 points, the equations cease to be accurate predictors of observed outcomes.
According to FIDE, if the difference between two player's ratings is 677, the stronger player has 99% chance of winning
If difference is 800, the chance of winning is, for all intents and purposes, 100%.
Here's a link to their handbook with the relevant table:
Simuls aren't reated for a reason, FEDTEL ;)
Here's what I don't like about the rating system:
If Magnus has the highest rating of all time, does that mean he's the greatest of all time, or the greatest among his generation? I think the rating itself is more a relative term than an absolute figure, so comparing players at their peaks based on rating isn't worthwhile. If you get right down to it, the rating system is flawed when you put it that way. I suspect the number will keep inflating, and the potential expansion of GM titles is indefinite.
Super duper bad mamma jamma grand master!
"Tradewise Gibraltar Chess Festival Round 4! Hosts IM Elisabeth Paehtz & GM Simon Williams "
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