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Of course, I'm talking about games when both players want to win.
I also don't buy %0 percent chance, because I think I can get a win against a Boris Gelfand type blunder.
Well, I will give you the biggest upset that I have ever seen. Once in club chess rated at a long time control GM Darryl Johansen lost to a 1300 rated player. I don't know what Johansen's rating was at that time [it was late 80's early 90's from memory]. That is ONCE out of 1000's of rated club games.
So I will say 0% chance in the sense of it being so asymptotically unlikely.
I think a 1300 player would struggle to beat Gelfand after that blunder to be honest. That's even if they found the Qf2 move that the strong GM commentators didn't. How sure are you really of beating Gelfand from here?
If the 2700 dies or has to forfeit the game, yes, the 1300 has a chance to win.
Just remember that a 1300 isn't going to last long enough for the 2700 to blunder; and the blunder better be quick checkmate one, or the 2700 will likely still win.
Yeah, the point is that they don't blunder from easy positions. Blunders come from positions where there are complcations, and normally when you are poor positionally.
A 1300 even if they can avoid tactics, isn't good enough positionally to put a GM under any sort of pressure.
It could possibly happen in a simul where the 2700 player was playing maybe 20 players and somehow hung his queen or something.
Actually it is 0%.
Not to say that it's impossible, but to express the chance you need a much higher accuracy/more decimals.
Excellent chances to win, unless he wakes up.
Although I do admit huge upsets can happen. My best non-rated upset was back when I was 1100, and a 2300 hung his queen on me in a queen + several pawns endgame. My best rated upset was beating a 2200 when I was 1647.
From my experience of watching chess players each gap of 200 pts is 1 difference in chess technique that is massive. For instance one thing that I notice is that 2000 players are much, much worse than 2200 players at dealing with counterplay in a won game with tactical complications; the 2200 player will win such positions easily and without fuss. So 2700 - 1300 = 7 of those "technique blocks". That is a heck of a lot.
If such an upset does happen it is usually a quick game with a serious opening inaccuracy through carelessness. The game was pretty quick in the case of Johansen losing - about 20 moves. Of course Johansen is not a 2700 GM. So the task is harder still.
A player who actually has a SUSTAINED rating of 1300 has 0% chance.
I beat or draw 1300's 100% of the time in otb play and have a rating of about 1700 although I play much better than that. A 2200 player beats me 15-1. A 2700 player beats a 2200 30-1. So what does that tell you?
Or the 2700 is Chucky in the mood to "chuck" pieces your way for free
I think in realistic terms, a 1300 player would need to given a huge advantage in order to beat a 2700 player. For example, the 2700 player has a total of 15 seconds to play out all their moves while a 1300 player has a much longer time control.
Realistically short of the 2700 getting very sick during the match due to an illness or food poisioning or someting along those lines, it is not likely at all that a 1300 player would beat a 2700. Of course with tons of money (i.e. bribes) anything is possible :)
In OTB games, I've often seen 2200 players win back against 1600-1700 players after blundering a piece.
So 0% for me too
Why not simply let someone call the GM on the mobile during the game?
But wins like this are too unlikely to happen in tournament practise. There are simply way too few games between players of that rating difference.
In a big simul, such an upset is of course possible. (There are underrated guys at 1300 that actually can play a little chess and if you simplify quickly and then drop a piece being a Super-GM is not much help)
Well I don't know about a 1300 beating a 2700 but in my case a 1750 player I have played some 1000 rated players who play so loose that the unexpected can happen (Akeetam for one). Lost to a 1300 player playing too safe recently and been so up in material in one game my position became swamped by my own material.
Even in a simul, a win is rather unlikely, unless the 1300 guy is seriously under-rated.
A draw might be possible (GMs are happy to draw in simuls, as it doesn't affect their payment and they can go home earlier )
try a large stick lol
My answer to this question ties in with the fact that those online players who strategically play others 400 or so points lower than them are not necessarily going to make a profit in points in the long run, because even though they could get 25 wins in a row, all of that will eventually be returned by an "unexpected" loss.
I don't really think anything is impossible -- maybe a grandmaster could pull a stripunsky, and hang his bishop and rook. True, even then, the 1300 might still not win, but if we had eight thousand billion tries, maybe one time it would happen.
You know they say that if a monkey was forced to type for an infinite amount of time, eventually the random strokes it makes will "just happen" to be identical to Shakespeare's Hamlet.
You talking about online ratings? Because I wouldn't expect to lose 1 game in a hundred (accurately) rated 1000 in online turn based on chess.com.
I'd be impressed to see a 1300 player beat one of the strong computer programs in my above diagram, and that's a bad blunder for a GM, which wasn't easy to capitalise on.
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