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Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?


  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3041

    Ziryab

    mcmodern wrote:

    It is not impossible, but we will not see it for a long long time.

    It could happen today, and again tomorrow. But once in a million years still beats the odds.

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3042

    BMeck

    mcmodern wrote:
    BMeck wrote:
    mcmodern wrote:

    It is not impossible, but we will not see it for a long long time.

    That does not make any sense. What would account for the average strength of a 1300 increasing while the average strength of a 2700 decreasing over time? 

    What I mean is that if you try say for a trillion times, you might hit that one time.  This event has a probability of > 0, so if you try enough, it will happen, it just won't happen anytime soon.

    Anything is, theoretically, possible when it comes down to it. But saying it wont happen for a long time still doesnt make sense. The games are independent of one another. Given the problem, the 1300 has the same probability to win the first game that he or she does the billionth. 

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3043

    richie_and_oprah

    BMeck wrote:
    mcmodern wrote:
    BMeck wrote:
    mcmodern wrote:

    It is not impossible, but we will not see it for a long long time.

    That does not make any sense. What would account for the average strength of a 1300 increasing while the average strength of a 2700 decreasing over time? 

    What I mean is that if you try say for a trillion times, you might hit that one time.  This event has a probability of > 0, so if you try enough, it will happen, it just won't happen anytime soon.

    Anything is, theoretically, possible when it comes down to it. But saying it wont happen for a long time still doesnt make sense. The games are independent of one another. Given the problem, the 1300 has the same probability to win the first game that he or she does the billionth. 

    Except in chess, the single event (a game) allows people to gain knowledge and thus does affect future probabilities.  So, if 1300 keeps playing 2700 their odds of winning increase because their info increases. 

    Random number theory does not apply. 

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3044

    mcmodern

    So, if 1300 keeps playing 2700 their odds of winning increase because their info increases. 


    Umm in that case, they would not be 1300 anymore right? 1300 is a relative strength, if the player knowledge improves, they would not be 1300.  The best chance for this to happen would be some very young and talented player, who is very under rated, maybe someone like Magnus or Wei Yi when they are about 8 or 9 or maybe even younger, but are rated 1300. I know Wei Yi played in Chinese pro league when was 8 or 9, so he was not 1300 at that age.

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3045

    BMeck

    mcmodern wrote:

    So, if 1300 keeps playing 2700 their odds of winning increase because their info increases. 


    Umm in that case, they would not be 1300 anymore right? 1300 is a relative strength, if the player knowledge improves, they would not be 1300.  The best chance for this to happen would be some very young and talented player, who is very under rated, maybe someone like Magnus or Wei Yi when they are about 8 or 9 or maybe even younger, but are rated 1300. I know Wei Yi played in Chinese pro league when was 8 or 9, so he was not 1300 at that age.

    "1300 is a relative strength, if the player knowledge improves, they would not be 1300."


    That is what I meant by "Given the problem." Earlier in the thread (I dont expect to read it) we settled on the 1300 player being a true 1300. Meaning his or her playing strength is always 1300.

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3046

    carsinio

    Did that diving guy break his neck?

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3047

    didibrian

    A person rated 200 points higher than another person has around 75% of winning

  • 5 weeks ago · Quote · #3048

    didibrian

    So either 0.(25^-7) or 25^-7%


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