# Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?

• 4 hours ago · Quote · #3101

Gawd I get so tired of arguing idiotic debates. It is a fact. No one cares who arrives at the board in any particular condition, what day of the week it is, what they ate for breakfast, what the relative humidity was, whether there was a pretty girl around, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

According to Professor Arpad ELO's mathematical system, and the ratings distributions, and the way ratings are assigned, there is a 1 in 3163 chance that a 1300 will get a point from a 2700 rated player.

There is nothing to f-ing argue here.

• 4 hours ago · Quote · #3102

how to win against 2700+ GM

1.Pay Him money

Job well done.

• 3 hours ago · Quote · #3103

I suggest Morra that the mathmatical system is basesd on probabilties. It gets projected to cover possible results. An alogrithm is used.  Numbers on a chalkboard. Not reality. Arpads system would assign a probabilty of a player rated 100 winning against a player rated 3000 as 1 in 10,000? or some other number. See the fallicy in your position?

Mathematical formulas can not always describe the real world.

I beg to differ about no one cares about the condition of the players. It would be quite absurd to discuss this if the GM were somehow severly impaired. Maybe Arpads formula took this variable into account, such as the odds of someone dropping dead at the table, although slim, is a possibilty.

• 83 minutes ago · Quote · #3104
mdinnerspace wrote:

I suggest Morra that the mathmatical system is basesd on probabilties. It gets projected to cover possible results. An alogrithm is used.  Numbers on a chalkboard. Not reality. Arpads system would assign a probabilty of a player rated 100 winning against a player rated 3000 as 1 in 10,000? or some other number. See the fallicy in your position?

Mathematical formulas can not always describe the real world.

I beg to differ about no one cares about the condition of the players. It would be quite absurd to discuss this if the GM were somehow severly impaired. Maybe Arpads formula took this variable into account, such as the odds of someone dropping dead at the table, although slim, is a possibilty.

I agree with you.

GM Serper wrote about the fiasco of Smyslovs stephson in the youth WC. He suffered from jetlag in Canada after beeing held back 12 hours in a inbetweenlanding in Denmark. Of course he underperformed.  There are rumours that Magnus Carlsen was so disappionted and upset that he slept poorly before the last day of the blitz WC, and the last day beame his worst in that tournament.  There are no doubt that GMs performs worse than their normal when they are less fit, for example because of sleeping too little, or illness.