I thought Aronian would win the last Candidates, then I thought he would win Kramnik in their match, wrong again. So I'm thinking Carlsen wins, Radjabov in second place
My take on " THE CANDIDATES TOURNAMENT"
I wouldn't mind Aronian or Kramnik winning. I'd like to see either of them play a match with Anand.
Ivanchuk would be awesome to see... and win the WC spot too! But yeah, very unlikely.
Carlsen is the favorite, and an Anand - Carlsen match would be good to see.
I want to see Carlsen win, just to see the highest rated in a match against the defending world champion. But then I want Anand to win again.
I'm betting on Aronian as well. He's been on the top for a while now, has the third highest rating ever, and, as mentioned by the OP, seems to come through in big tournaments.
If someone can nick Carlsen for a win early, it could be a wide-open affair. The longer he can hang around the lead, the less likely someone else will be able to dislodge him.
What? That doesn't make any sense to me... Why would it matter when someone gets a win as long as it happens?
If someone can nick Carlsen for a win early, it could be a wide-open affair. The longer he can hang around the lead, the less likely someone else will be able to dislodge him.
What? That doesn't make any sense to me... Why would it matter when someone gets a win as long as it happens?
You're assuming that all wins put the player in the lead, which is false. Assuming the lead is a much stronger condition than that.
However, you do make a good point. I cannot find a way to argue the poster's claim either, though I initially believed it to be a truism. I would like to say something like this: Assume player X lost the lead in round n of a tounament lasting N rounds; then the probability of X winning is approximated by X winning a N-n round tournament--this may actually be true but remember X can be a half-point below the leaders after a loss; account for the possibility that X never loses their lead to break the equality.
Well an earlier loss might make Carlsen less inclined to settle for a draw. This could lead to posistions that are double edged and might cost him.
I think "chess" needs Calsen to win, and a Anand Carlsen match.
And after he's won the title, "chess" needs Radjabov, Aronian, Nakamura to snap at his heels and try take it away from him.
You are correct rooperi...chess does need fresh new legs to carry it into the future. If Carlsen wins, it will encourage a generation of younger players to pursue the game as a career...just as Bobby Fischer did. Carlsen vs Anand would also be the most "sellable" of all the pairings. I also believe that if Carlsen does win, he will become the new WCC...and will remain so for some time.
You are correct rooperi...chess does need fresh new legs to carry it into the future. If Carlsen wins, it will encourage a generation of younger players to pursue the game as a career...just as Bobby Fischer did. Carlsen vs Anand would also be the most "sellable" of all the pairings. I also believe that if Carlsen does win, he will become the new WCC...and will remain so for some time.
i dont think so. Fischer was a very charismatic person, he had really a presence you know. Carlsen is nowere like that. I dont think Carlsen would make any difference.
Anyway i believe Ivanchuk, Grischuk or Aronian will play Anand.
Carlsen has the momentum of a tidal wave behind him. He is unstoppable.
Anand's best chance now will be to play the Fischer Gambit, and never show up.
"The Fischer Gambit" HAHA I love it!
However, to the subject at hand, I expect Carlsen to win the tournament. However, I would not be shocked if Kramnik were to win an upset and take the event.
If Carlsen wins the tournament, I think he'll be able to defeat Anand in the regular title match. But if they deadlock and it goes to rapid tie-breaks ... I'm betting on Anand.
If anyone other than Carlsen wins the tournament, I suspect Anand will retain the crown. Although for some reason, I do feel Ivanchuk might be able to unseat Vishy, but I don't think he'll win the tournament, so I don't think the issue will come up.
Those are my predictions.
I disagree, Estragon. Psychologically, if Carlsen loses early in the tournament, he will have plenty of time to rebound from that loss. However, if he loses in the second half of the tournament and drops out of first place, it will be much more difficult for him to catch up again.
If Carlsen loses in the first half of the tournament, he will be able to say to himself that he can always make it up in the second half. If he drops out of first place by a full point in the second half of the tournament, even Carlsen may not be able to catch up. I think the tie-breaks work against him in this case because he's the highest rated player. So he needs to win the tournament outright, or at least defeat his nearest rivals in their head-to-head match ups.
I am no expert on chess. But as a very frequent watcher/observer of chess I have developed an opinion about the upcoming Candidates Tournament. Hope you readers like it.
This years Candidates Tournament is, if I may say, is larger in magnitude than the 1962 Curacao Candidates, where sheer Mental fitness decided the winner (Tigran Petrosian) along with a few controversies. It is very rare that every player has to play 27 hard-fought brutal games without the vast opening theory and Computer Engines. But still I am of the opinion that this Candidates will be even more brutal and entertaining for the fans.
Now to the point of who do I think will be the front-runners. Magnus Carlsen is supposed to be the best bet and the favourite to win. But I beg to differ, I think we might be in for a surprise. I believe the Gold Oldies Chucky, Vlady and Boris Gelfand could finish the tournament strong, very strong. But, my prediction is Levon Aronian to win the tournament. He has a knack of performing strong in big tournaments, even though his recent form in the London Chess Classic suggests otherwise.
Do post in your views and comments and also your predictions.