You are assuming quite a bit. An early loss is certain to put a player behind. A loss in the second half is by no means certain to "drop a full point behind" since he could be leading by two points when it happens.
Tiebreaks do not apply in this tournament, either. If there is a tie for first, it will be played off: the challenger will not be determined by tiebreaks.
It seems that you are the one making assumptions here. I stated that if Carlsen drops out of first place by a full point in the second half, even Carlsen may not be able to catch up.
Regarding tie-breaks:
Here's the tournament rules:
3. 7 Tie-breaks
If the top two or more players score the same points, the tie will be decided by the following criteria, in order of priority:
a) The results of the games between the players involved in the tie.
If they are still tied:
b) The total number of wins in the tournament of every player involved in the tie.
If they are still tied:
c) Sonneborn - Berger System.
3.7.1.a If there is no clear winner with the above 3 criteria, there will be a special competition between the players who still remain
tied after using the 3rd criteria (Sonneborn - Berger): after a new drawing of colors, each tied player will play two (2) tie-break games
with the other tied opponent(s). The games shall be played using the electronic clock starting with 25 minutes for each player with an
increment of 10 seconds after each move.
3
^what estragon said.
Also Carlsen has stamina, so hes chances improve over time, it may only be possible to stop him early.