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Probability Calculator?

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19th February 2008, 01:17pm
#1
by MasterBlaster
Atlanta United States
Member Since: Feb 2008
Member Points: 3

Is there an analysis button somewhere that will give your probablility of winning based on the current board positions?  This came to mind while reading someone else's post about people resigning early if they get down some material & play the board out in their head and realize there isn't much chance of getting back up.  A tool like this would be great for newer players to be able to guage their overall board strength and more easily learn to recognize the point when a match is basically over.  When playing the next 10 moves would not be much more than an exercise in futility just to hope that the other player makes some strangely catastrophic mistake to allow you to come back from defeat. 


19th February 2008, 01:19pm
#2
by ih8sens
Sudbury, Ontario Canada
Member Since: Jan 2008
Member Points: 1245

I'm assuming not, chess engines being the closest I could think of.

Would such a clever device exist I can almost promise you it would be banned here on chess.com. 


19th February 2008, 01:31pm
#3
by fuze22
Mesa, Arizona United States
Member Since: Jan 2008
Member Points: 119
you might think you are losing, but it would tell you that there is a high probability of winning, thus you missed something and it would be equal to cheating.
19th February 2008, 02:14pm
#4
by MasterBlaster
Atlanta United States
Member Since: Feb 2008
Member Points: 3
Very true, using that example and being able to see someone's win probability drop from 60% down to 30% in one move, it would basically be the same as having a GM sitting next to you to let you know exactly when the other player just made a mistake and all you have to do is find it.  Very illegal and unfair indeed.  Thank you for the insight fuze22.
19th February 2008, 04:32pm
#5
by janus255
Palo Alto, CA United States
Member Since: Dec 2007
Member Points: 191
I don't think that's even theoretically possible. Your probability of winning depends on what your opponent does. A computer can't really predict that.
19th February 2008, 06:12pm
#6
by Locke
Calgary Canada
Member Since: Dec 2007
Member Points: 287
It could, although it is tantamount to using a chess engine to assist you. Theoretically, it seems to me a somewhat simply machine of the sort could find forced combinations and the like. A system would have to be incredibly complex for it to possibly calculate all future moves.
 

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