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Winning/Losing Streaks


  • 20 months ago · Quote · #1

    LordHarnois

    I just wanted to know if anyone else experiences the pattern of for a few weeks winning a good majority of games having rating go a bit higher lets say 100 points just for the sake of conversation. Then for some reason a few weeks of losing a majority and lets say going down 60 points until winning streak picks back up.

  • 20 months ago · Quote · #2

    The_AlphaWolf

    lolz all the time.Cool

    Mostly it has to do with form, physical & mental fitness, stress,  etc etc. Offcourse also the opposite is true, sometimes you just are bright, sharp awake, etc.

  • 20 months ago · Quote · #3

    ThrillerFan

    LordHarnois wrote:

    I just wanted to know if anyone else experiences the pattern of for a few weeks winning a good majority of games having rating go a bit higher lets say 100 points just for the sake of conversation. Then for some reason a few weeks of losing a majority and lets say going down 60 points until winning streak picks back up.

    ABSOLUTELY!  I play more over the board than I do online, but even there, what you have to do is consider what rating you can regularly sustain.

    For example, I played my first over the board tournament in June 1996, and started with a rating of 1177.  By the end of 1997, I was in the mid-1400s.  By January 1, 1998, I was 1771.  I had a very strong spring, and my August 1998 rating (USCF) was 1927.  I had a horrible summer, and my October 1998 rating was 1763, dropping 164 points in 2 months (back then, ratings were every 2 months, not every month, and results were sent manually, so ratings were always behind, so October 1998 supplement included games played in the mid-summer, like July.  Most August tournaments and surely all September tournaments didn't get factored in until the December Supplement.

    Continuing on, I hit 2000 for the first time in August 2001 (2001 rating).  That was not sustained.  Happened to have a good stretch.  I was still sustaining a 1900 rating.  I was 1910 in Summer 2002.  I started to maintain right around a 2000 rating in 2004, with occasional dips below, and haven't dipped below since 2008.  Now, I am right around 2080, and still bounce up and down a bit.  Highest I've ever been is 2090.  I tend to sustain a 2060 to 2070 rating as of late, and will probably finally crack 2100 shortly.  The 2090 I had prior was in 2008, when I was only regularly sustaining about a 2025 rating.

    So think of it as peak rating vs sustaining rating.  It's like wind gusts.  Sustaining winds of 20 miles per hour with gusts as high as 40.

    Consider your true strength to be whatever rating you can regularly sustain at that time.  For me, it's about 2060 to 2070 (about 30 higher than it was a year ago).  I'll probably hit 2100 for the first time in 2013, though it will probably be 2014 before I can truly sustain it.

    Streaks will always occur.

  • 20 months ago · Quote · #4

    Estragon

    It is a very normal pattern for an improving player to shoot up rapidly, up to 100 points or so USCF/Elo, and then hit a plateau for a period before resuming improving results again. 

    OTB, one reason for this is that the higher rating and better scores mean you will face stronger opponents in Swiss System tournaments.

  • 20 months ago · Quote · #5

    chessman1504

    On here, I've had my rating go up 100 in a few days and it has plummeted 150 in about a week or a week and a half. So yes, at least online.

  • 20 months ago · Quote · #6

    LordHarnois

    Intresting, it's cool to know this happens to alot of people.


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