Random in seek,why almost always black?

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11th October 2008, 11:42am
#21
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
pfargen wrote:
pfargen wrote:
sss3006 wrote:
Tr4mpldUndrfooT wrote:

Maybe people are only accepting the games when they show up as white? I know it does show you what color you are going to be before you accept.


Cant be answer, because logically, that means i have ALREADY been alloted black by the computer right, so problem is still same?


 When we click a game, it shows it to you - including the color.  If one wants to play white, but it shows black, then they can cancel.  That would lead to people initiating seeks to play more black, if indeed people wanted white.  You can initiate some and then accept open seeks some too, and even initiate games and specify black.  I would just try to  balance out White and Black.   But no, this is not a random process.


 I just clicked all all seven open seeks available to me.  Every time I was assigned the White Pieces.  I looked, and then cancelled.  I'm not sure what's up, but this is not a random process to the second power!


Right on. So ur checking seems to have proved that what i had experienced was going on for others also. Nice way to check. Good thinking.

11th October 2008, 12:03pm
#22
by grensley
Minnesota United States
Member Since: Mar 2008
Member Points: 406

an octuple post...that has to be a new record.

11th October 2008, 12:06pm
#23
by gabrielconroy
London United Kingdom
Member Since: May 2008
Member Points: 1528

Yes I'd noticed this as well.

At the least, observing an open seek causes its probability waveform to collapse, since checking a seek, closing it, then opening it again n times still results in the same colour. So once you've checked it, that's your lot. Whether the system does a random process in the first place, I don't know.

P.S. I don't know much about maths or quantum mechanics, so if the above is nonsense, blame my teachers. I conclude that the cat is neither black nor white, but thinking makes it so.

12th October 2008, 10:54pm
#24
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
grensley wrote:

an octuple post...that has to be a new record.


Anyway of checking?

12th October 2008, 10:58pm
#25
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
timepass wrote:
ih8sens wrote:

They're out to getchya


ih8sens....that was cool....


yes. ud think he has a persecution complex. ha ha.

12th October 2008, 11:01pm
#26
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
gabrielconroy wrote:

Yes I'd noticed this as well.

At the least, observing an open seek causes its probability waveform to collapse, since checking a seek, closing it, then opening it again n times still results in the same colour. So once you've checked it, that's your lot. Whether the system does a random process in the first place, I don't know.

P.S. I don't know much about maths or quantum mechanics, so if the above is nonsense, blame my teachers. I conclude that the cat is neither black nor white, but thinking makes it so.


Wow. Whats a probability waveform? If you really know, ur teachers should be complimented, not blamed. u dont know much about math huh? We others must be really dumb then.

12th October 2008, 11:41pm
#27
by cuendillar
Stockholm Sweden
Member Since: Jan 2008
Member Points: 823

Actually, this is not very improbable at all: The chances of 8/10 black games is 45/1024, or about 4.4%. It's simply a binomial distribution. With 28090 blitz players, the odds of it not happening to someone is 5.75*10^-549. With 95% probability, it happens to between 1167 and 1302 players in their first 10 games, unless I miscalculate badly. Sorry if I sound like an insufferable know-it-all, but I'm really just practicing for my upcoming exam in probability and statistics. :)

13th October 2008, 12:07am
#28
by RaZoR_bLaDe
Melbourne Australia
Member Since: Nov 2007
Member Points: 81
sss3006 wrote:

Hi,

I am new around here. I have been using "random" choice in seek in live chess.

In 8/10 games, I was alloted black.Statastically not really random.

Not that I mind, but still, why?

Anybody know?

sss3006


Cause I always get white

13th October 2008, 12:46am
#29
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
cuendillar wrote:

Actually, this is not very improbable at all: The chances of 8/10 black games is 45/1024, or about 4.4%. It's simply a binomial distribution. With 28090 blitz players, the odds of it not happening to someone is 5.75*10^-549. With 95% probability, it happens to between 1167 and 1302 players in their first 10 games, unless I miscalculate badly. Sorry if I sound like an insufferable know-it-all, but I'm really just practicing for my upcoming exam in probability and statistics. :)


hmm. ok i agree - because i dont actually understand the calculations, but the reasoning is logical. And congratulations, i think u should breeze through ur exams.

13th October 2008, 12:47am
#30
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155
RaZoR_bLaDe wrote:
sss3006 wrote:

Hi,

I am new around here. I have been using "random" choice in seek in live chess.

In 8/10 games, I was alloted black.Statastically not really random.

Not that I mind, but still, why?

Anybody know?

sss3006


Cause I always get white


In how many games?

6th May 2009, 03:03am
#31
by Jamori
Groningen Netherlands
Member Since: Apr 2009
Member Points: 142

Man, I hope you're not one of those people who think that after 8 times black in a row, the next time they must SURELY be white.. :D

14th October 2009, 11:47am
#32
by sss3006
blore India
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 155

ha ha

16th October 2009, 01:49pm
#33
by cuendillar
Stockholm Sweden
Member Since: Jan 2008
Member Points: 823
Jamori wrote:

Man, I hope you're not one of those people who think that after 8 times black in a row, the next time they must SURELY be white.. :D


 The most common misconception in the history of statistics. I've seen countless of examples of it - understanding "indepentent probabilities" must be one of the most difficult things in the history of mankind. :)

 

PS: It's all come down to this - a dice can't remember the result of its latest toss. The same hold for everything else that's random.

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