endgame
1. Kc5 Ke7 and white isn't making much progress. It looks like black will hold the blockade of the d-pawn and maintain control of his 7th rank.
Black's play isn't very accurate. 2...Rb7 also appears to hold the draw.
Unless this is a game continuation, I'm not sure your analysis is sound, but at the end of your given variation, white isn't "probably winning" he's dead won, black's king is too far offside and white will sweep up the kingside pawns and make his own queen.
yes this is a continuation from a game I played. Thanks for your comment, 2..Rb7 indeed seems to hold the draw, at least I can't see any continuation for white from that point on. Quite interesting...
The actual game was a live game, and black indeed made some mistakes in the end. Black still won though, because I timed out after that last move, but it indeed would have been a clear win.