Am I Improving? Based on CAPS? A Genuine Experiment

Am I Improving? Based on CAPS? A Genuine Experiment

DanielGuel
DanielGuel
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41

Hi everyone!  This is an unusual post, no chess lines or analysis today (unless I decide to add some games... IDK). I'm honestly extremely nervous!!!!

What we're going to do is I'm going to take my last 20 Chess.com rapid games (I believe it's more than 10 minutes per side, but I could be wrong. Generally 15|10 or 30|0), will look at my last 20 from a year ago, then 2 years, etc, until I feel like stopping  I am literally doing this as we speak, did not prepare this in advance, and I am nervous because if my accuracy has been the same from a year or two ago, you all are gonna blast me in the comments saying "Daniel, you're NOT improving at chess!".

OK, I am joking. BTW I just crossed 1700 in rapid, a feat I hadn't accomplished... so I am hopeful I am improving somewhat  Let's get into the experiment:

Last 20 rapid games (as of August 19th, 2020)

Here are the accuracies for my last 20 games, and the overall average (listed from least recent to most recent):

72.8

96

74.4

78

99

95.6

94.9

91.6

51.9

80.8

91.9

75

89

82.1

88.4

91.9

92.9

94.7

96.5

80.5

2020 sample Average = 85.91

OK, I actually feel like that is solid. When I play a good game and make few mistakes and minimal blunders, it's not hard for me to get over 90+, although, when I play a bad game, and blunders can affect the rest of your game, it can get crazy low. And guys, don't get suspicious about the 99 game... It was 11 moves and mostly straightforward

Last 20 rapid games (as of August 19th, 2019)
Now back then, apparently, I was not in as much as a playing habit as I am now (we weren't quarantined, and I was probably preparing for college, who knows). I think my last 20 games right now lasted a span of about a month, but these last 20 games dates back to mid-May... OK, here goes nothing:
94.8
87
97.7
89.6
41.5
97.5
61.4
87.6
89.4
63.8
14.9
96.7
87.2
16.7
86.5
97.7
82.9
79.3
78.5
97.2
2019 sample average: 77.40
Whoa OK, some difference!  What I notice off the bat is my results were far more inconsistent then. My last 20 games today, I didn't have any lower than 50%. In this set, I had two games under 20%!!! Now I do think lack of playing consistency did play a role. This was basically my games through my summer break... 20 games over 3 months then vs. 20 games over 1 month now. BTW, since you asked, here is my 14.9 game!
Also, to note, I played this guy who got his account closed, and had 99 accuracy.... so yeah... :/ I actually fought back with 97.5 accuracy, but here is the game, his username is eradicated for obvious reasons

Last 20 rapid games (as of August 19th, 2018)

OK, this is where it gets interesting. I obviously improved from 2019 to 2020, but did I improve much from 2018 to 2019, or even 2017 to 2019 ??? Now I had to put a lot of games into analysis, because I guess back then, computer analysis/scores weren't a big thing, so they were not manually done  For context, this was the stage of my chess career where I peaked at 1828 USCF, but it was possibly fraudulent because I ended up going down big time, and it was hard to pick back up...

89.1

93.4

86.7

87.4

94.1

82.9

91.5

93.6

8.9

46.9

89.4

81.9

64.5

98.4

96.9

59.4

63.6

68.3

86.6

97.8

2018 Sample Average: 79.07

OK, so it looks like I didn't really improve from 2018 to 2019, and I am actually not surprised  I might talk about this stage of my chess career in another blog post, though that year span was a point where I had peaked at over 1800, fallen off naturally, and I thought I could make stuff happen and get back up. I was super inconsistent. I started deliberately working again mid-late 2019. And for life context, I am getting ready for my Senior year of high school, and my second full year of public school (for those who don't know me that well, I was home schooled most of my life! )

Last 20 rapid games (as of August 19th, 2017)

This will be the last set. Now I have not calculated yet, but I am guessing I had made some improvements. This was around my chess growth spurt. In June 2017, I broke 1600 USCF, and in September 2017, I broke 1700 USCF. I was just coming off my last year of being home schooled!  OK, and time for my computer to take a beating analyzing the accuracy of 20 games!!! (glad this experiment is almost over lol)

88

55.9

88.7

84.6

95.5

84.1

56

61.8

60.1

80.2

92.9

85.7

95.7

90.3

98.9

94.1

98.3

66.9

70

92.2

2017 Sample Average: 82.00

Whoa... I played better in 2017 than I did in 2019 ???? This is very interesting. According to these samples, I got WORSE from 2017 to 2019! Now a friendly reminder that computers are do NOT give the most accurate assessment of if you're improving or not, but I am astonished that I played almost as good at 16 than now at 19! So here is a recap as to my "progress" over a sample:

2017 -- 82.00

2018 -- 79.07

2019 -- 77.40

2020 -- 85.91

Now obviously, this is a sample, over a number of games in a year. But what does this say about my chess progress? It affirms that 2017 and early 2018 were good chess years for me (broke 1600 and 1700 USCF in 2017, 1800 in early 2018), although, I got on a big slump that was difficult to get out of later 2018 through 2019. However, as college rolls around, I'm making a comeback, as I got from 1700-1783 USCF September 2019 through March 2020. 

Just some data. Do what you want with it. I'm exhausted! See you all next time