Free 50 page preview New In Chess on Carlsen-Caruana match

Free 50 page preview New In Chess on Carlsen-Caruana match

HanSchut
NM HanSchut
Nov 6, 2018, 6:17 AM |
5

nullNew In Chess has published a free preview of the Carlsen - Caruana world chess championship match. You can download this publication via this link: New In Chess Carlsen - Caruana Preview. The 50-page publication includes:

- a preview by chess legend GM Jan Timman;

- 9 deeply analyzed games including 4 by Caruana and Carlsen themselves;

- a new interview with GM Sergey Karjakin about his match with Carlsen in New York 2016 and his expectations for the match between Carlsen and Caruana;

- the interview with Caruana after the candidate tournament in Berlin which was published in NIC Magazine 2018/3;

- an analysis by Jeroen Bosch of the idea 5 ... b5 !? from Caruana in the queens gambit accepted.

The general consensus in the various previews on the match is:

- This world chess championship match is between the two strongest players in the world. Caruana not only won the candidate tournament in Berlin, but also is the current number 2 in the world on rating and has won this year some very strong tournaments, sometimes ahead Carlsen.

- Carlsen is the slight favorite  to win the match (55/60% Carlsen versus 45/40% Caruana) based on their mutual score (10-5 in decisive games), Carlsen's match experience and Carlsen's superiority in rapid and blitz chess. It is striking that betting sites estimate the chances of Carlsen higher (65/70% Carlsen versus 35/30% Caruana).

- Caruana has been in better form over the last 6 months than Carlsen. Furthemore, Caruana has a deep opening repertoire, is technically strong and a good, resilient defender.

Personally, I think that the fact that Caruana has not won a game against Carlsen in the last 3 years is important. The question is whether Caruana can reset himself mentally and can see the match as a completely new situation. Another element that is not highlighted in the various previews is that Carlsen can get easily frustrated if he is unable to control the match and then takes big risks to unbalance the games. Carlsen sometimes goes to far in forcing unbalances, creating chances for his opponent.

Moreover, Carlsen lost twice this year in the second half of a tournament which raises questions about his stamina. He lost against Wesley So in the second half of the Altibox Norway Chess tournament and against Mamedyarov in round 8 of the Biel Accentus Grandmaster Tournament 2018. Caruana on the other hand won several games in the second half of tournaments.

In conclusion, I also see Carlsen as the favorite to win the match but I give Caruana good chances in the second half of the match if the match is at that moment still in balance. Carlsen can be his own worst enemy. He will have the initiative in the match but the question is whether he will self destruct when the demons in his head takeover.