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Chess Candidates Tournament

Chess Candidates Tournament

chessguy1012
Oct 11, 2017, 11:12 AM 9

 So you probably heard about the 2018 chess candidates tournament, right? It's everywhere, but, if you don't know what it is, then I'll tell you. It is a double round robin (everyone plays each other twice) with eight of the worlds best chess players, the winner, gets to play Magnus Carlsen in the world championship. Right, your probably thinking, how do they decide on who gets to play? well there are eight spots, two of the spots are for the finalists in the FIDE world cup, one is the loser of the last world championship, two are decided by rating, they take the rating lists from January to December 2017 and average every players rating and the two players with the highest average get to play. Another two players qualify from the 2017 FIDE Grand Prix, a player can go to up to three tournaments and get points for doing well (1st is 170 points, 2nd is 140 points, 3rd is 110 points, 4th is 90 points and 5th is 80 points) the two players who finish with the most points also qualify. The last player to qualify is the wild card, the organizer will chose one person that has been at least 2725 on a 2017 rating list. 

 

Qualified Already: Since the FIDE world cup is already finished we already have the qualifiers from that, they are Ding Liren and Levon Aronian. But, of course Sergey Karjakin will be playing too, since he was the loser of the 2016 world championship. 

 

FIDE Grand Prix: Okay, currently there are 4 eligible qualifiers from the Grand Prix, Shakhriyar Mamedyarov has 340 points, but he has played all his tournaments, Alexander Grischuk has played all his tournaments and has 336 points, Teimour Radjabov has one tournament to go and has 241 points, MVL has a tournament to go and has 211 points. The only way for Mamedyarov to not qualify for the candidates is if Radjabov and MVL have a great tournament and MVL finishes with a 1st or 2nd and Radjabov finishes with a 1st, 2nd or 3rd. but for Radjabov to qualify in the 2nd spot he would need at least a clear 3rd place finish, MVL will need a clear 2nd place finish. 

 

Rating: Fabiano Caruana is in the lead if no ratings change in the November and December rating lists with a average of 2808, then comes Wesley So if nothing changes at 2806 and then in third trying to come up to the two places is Vladimir Kramnik with a average of 2803 if he goes UP 1 point in the November and December rating lists. 

 

My picks: I think Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So will qualify by rating. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov and Alexander Grishuk will qualify from the FIDE Grand Prix. Finally, the hardest one to predict, wild card, there are some big names that I don't think will qualify like MVL, Anish Giri and Vishy Anand, those are the players probably most likely to qualify, so...... I'm going to guess that Vishy Anand will be picked as wild card, but I may be wrong.

 

So if everything goes the way I think it will, then it will be: Sergey Karjakin, Ding Liren, Levon Aronian, Shakhiyar Mamedyarov, Alexander Grishuk, Fabiano Caruana, Wesley So playing for the chance to play in the world championships.

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