Norway Chess Predictions After 4 Rounds

SmarterChess
NM SmarterChess
Jun 21, 2015, 6:27 AM |
2

Magnus Carlsen is in last place with only one draw in four games.  Can he come back to make the podium or even win the event?!  To find out I created some framework to pull out a expected score (ES) for each match.

ES Criteria

  1. History between the two players with given colors in the past 3 years.  Blitz/Rapid games are not included.  The games are weighted with the most recent games having more value.
  2. Ratings of the players
  3. Colors
Current Standings
1. Topalov 3.5
2. Nakamura 3
3-4. Anand, Giri 2.5
5-7. MVL, Caruana, Grischuk 2
8-9. Aronian, Hammer 1
10. Carlsen 0.5 

Round 5 

Topalov's ES vs Hammer is .63 so he should keep his tournament lead through one round.  Carlsen is the largest favorite in the round (ES=.67) with the White pieces agaisnt Grischuk.  I don't expect to see much change in the standings after the 5th.  ES standings after 5:

  1. Topalov 4.1
  2. Nakamura 3.5
  3. Giri 3
  4. Anand 3
  5. Caruana 2.6
  6. MVL 2.5
  7. Grischuk 2.3
  8. Aronian 1.4
  9. Hammer 1.4
  10. Carlsen 1.2 

 

Round 6
Grischuk-Topalov is a coin flip.  The rest of the games all have a heavy favorite.  Carlsen (ES=.81) has Nakamura's number and the White pieces.  Caruana-Hammer and Anand-MVL both favor White.  A surprising statistic is that Aronian is a strong favorite with the Black pieces against Giri.  ES standings after 6:

  1. Topalov 4.6
  2. Nakamura 3.6
  3. Anand 3.6
  4. Caruana 3.3
  5. Giri 3.3
  6. Grischuk 2.9
  7. MVL 2.8
  8. Aronian 2.1
  9. Carlsen 2.1
  10. Hammer 1.7

Round 7
This is Aronian's round to shine with White against Anand (ES=0.82).  Caruana is also a strong favorite playing Black against Topalov (ES=0.74).  MVL-Carlsen gives Carlsen an ES of 0.64.  Nakamura-Grischuk and Hammer-Giri are closer to coin flips. ES standings after 7:

  1. Topalov 4.9
  2. Nakamura 4.2
  3. Caruana 4.1
  4. Giri 3.9
  5. Anand 3.8
  6. Grischuk 3.3
  7. MVL 3.2
  8. Aronian 2.9
  9. Carlsen 2.7
  10. Hammer 2.1
Round 8
Round 8 should see heavy favorites in 4 of the 5 games.  Anand-Hammer and Carlsen-Aronian both give White an ES > 0.75.  Giri-Topalov and Nakamura-MVL give the first players an ES > 0.65.  Caruana has an ES=0.75 playing Black against Grischuk.  ES Standings after 8:
1. Topalov 5.2
2. Nakamura 4.9
3. Caruana 4.8
4. Giri 4.6
5. Anand 4.6
6. Grischuk 3.5
7. Carlsen 3.5
8. MVL 3.5
9. Aronian 3.1
10. Hammer 2.3
Round 9
The two Norwegians face-off in the last round in Hammer-Carlsen.  Carlsen has an ES of 0.77, the highest of the round.  Aronian-Nakamura gives a large edge (ES=0.74) to Aronian based on recent results.  The other 3 games are all close to 50-50 so we may see three draws in the final round.
Final ES Standings (Points Gained)
1. Topalov 5.7 (2.2) - Underdog rds 7-8 vs Caruana and Giri
2. Caruana 5.4 (3.4) - Favorite in all remaining rounds!  Most likely to catch Topalov.
3. Nakamura 5.2 (2.2) - Brutal match-up against Carlsen and large underdog against Aronian.
4. Giri 5.0 (2.5) - Underdog against Aronian, favorite vs Topalov.
5. Anand 5.0 (2.5) - ES = 0.18 with Black against Aronian in round 7.
6. Carlsen 4.3 (3.8) - Lowest remaining ES is 0.64 with Black against MVL.  Highest total ES the rest of the tournament at 3.8.
7. Grischuk 4.1 (2.1) - Especially struggles against Carlsen and Caruana.
8. MVL 4.0 (2) - Underdog in all remaining games.
9. Aronian 3.8 (2.8) - Should have a strong 2nd half, but he's so far out of the picture.  Aronian is > 0.70 in 3 games and < 0.40 in the other 2.  No close match-ups.
10. Hammer 2.5 (1.5) - Large underdog in all remaining games.