Carlsen-Caruana snap judgments

3SailorsGambit

Well, what do people think of Caruana's chances?

Does London favor either player?

3SailorsGambit

No takers, huh?  That much of a walkover?

TacticalCube

Magnus will win this one.

3SailorsGambit

Most people think so, but Caruana seems to be rounding into form.  Winning Greinke on fumes is impressive as well.  And he seems to have found a weapon in the Petrov.

Jancotianno

I think Caruana will give Carlsen a real run for his money.

3SailorsGambit

Arguably Fabiano will have better preparation.  Strange to have Magnus be the "old guard" trying to hold off the young up-and-comer.

Pulpofeira

I was playing the Petrov when it wasn't trendy!

fischerrook

People forget Magnus barely kept his title last time. He's also known as one of the laziest GMs. I think he will drop the title. He had his hands full in 2016 against Karjakin, winning the tie-breaks to keep his title.  Caruana will be super prepared. We will be in store for some strong chess. 

AggressiveBee

Caruana won't do well in this format. It'll be a landslide victory for Magnus.

Forkedupagain

Magnus will fall.

apotosaurus

 Hi remember the 2013 Candidates? The only reason Carlsen won was he and Kramnik were tied going into the last round and Carlsen had better tiebreaks. Kramnik thought he had to win assuming Carlsen would at least draw, but Carlsen lost and Kramnik had also pressed too hard.

3SailorsGambit

Do people agree that Caruana will be a tougher opponent overall than Karjakin, or is that debatable as well?

Forkedupagain

Magnus will win.

3SailorsGambit

Yeah, not too many people give Caruana a chance to win outright.  But then, nobody thought the last WC match would be as competitive as it was.  And as someone posted earlier, most believe that Karjakin peaked very early and FC is now the better player.

AntonioEsfandiari
fischerrook wrote:

People forget Magnus barely kept his title last time. He's also known as one of the laziest GMs. I think he will drop the title. He had his hands full in 2016 against Karjakin, winning the tie-breaks to keep his title.  Caruana will be super prepared. We will be in store for some strong chess. 

Very good point!  Caruana is extremely humble relative to his strength, and will likely put in more effort in preparation than Carlsen will.
  http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772638
If Caruana can play like he did in the 2014 Sinquefield cup, then it is truly Magnus who doesn't stand a chance.   His performance rating was 3000+ 

3SailorsGambit

That's a tall order, though.  That was his career-defining performance so far.  He hasn't been able to match it since, which is why we keep talking about 2014.  Clearly if he can play the best chess of his life at the right time he has the firepower to unseat Magnus.  But the circumstances will make that exceptionally difficult.  As others have said, this isn't Carlsen's first rodeo, but for Fabiano it's all likely to be a whirlwind.

Forkedupagain

Magnus will fall.

3SailorsGambit

You seem to be rather ambivalent, Forked.  wink.png

3SailorsGambit

A brilliant player, obviously, but I wonder if his window to compete for the top crown has closed.  Strange how even in chess it's quite a trick to remain competitive at the highest level after about 40.

fischerrook

It will be sad to see Magnus lose, but I think his time is up.  Caruana is a workhorse and he never gets tired or burned out. Watch him win this US championship.