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Carlsen-Caruana snap judgments

  • #1

    Well, what do people think of Caruana's chances?

    Does London favor either player?

  • #2

    No takers, huh?  That much of a walkover?

  • #3

    Magnus will win this one.

  • #4

    Most people think so, but Caruana seems to be rounding into form.  Winning Greinke on fumes is impressive as well.  And he seems to have found a weapon in the Petrov.

  • #5

    I think Caruana will give Carlsen a real run for his money.

  • #6

    Arguably Fabiano will have better preparation.  Strange to have Magnus be the "old guard" trying to hold off the young up-and-comer.

  • #7

    I was playing the Petrov when it wasn't trendy!

  • #8

    People forget Magnus barely kept his title last time. He's also known as one of the laziest GMs. I think he will drop the title. He had his hands full in 2016 against Karjakin, winning the tie-breaks to keep his title.  Caruana will be super prepared. We will be in store for some strong chess. 

  • #9

    Caruana won't do well in this format. It'll be a landslide victory for Magnus.

  • #10

    Magnus will fall.

  • #11

     Hi remember the 2013 Candidates? The only reason Carlsen won was he and Kramnik were tied going into the last round and Carlsen had better tiebreaks. Kramnik thought he had to win assuming Carlsen would at least draw, but Carlsen lost and Kramnik had also pressed too hard.

  • #12
    fischerrook wrote:

    People forget Magnus barely kept his title last time. He's also known as one of the laziest GMs. I think he will drop the title. He had his hands full in 2016 against Karjakin, winning the tie-breaks to keep his title.  Caruana will be super prepared. We will be in store for some strong chess. 

    More like Karjakin had his hands full, and got lucky in 1 game where Magnus overpressed his advantage.

    But with only a few games to go, Carlsen won a game to tie the match, and then won the tiebreaks. Yeah it was a very close call, Carlsen could have easily lost his title, but in terms of chess on the board it was Karjakin who was in over his head.

    ---

    Having said that, I think Caruana will be harder than Anand and Karjakin, so Caruana has real chances.

    One advantage for Carlsen though will be his experience. We can't really imagine the immense psychological pressure of playing your first WCC match. These guys are only in their 20s, and their whole lives have lead them to this ultimate title. Carlsen has experienced this multiple times now, Caruana hasn't.

  • #13
    apotosaurus wrote:

     Hi remember the 2013 Candidates? The only reason Carlsen won was he and Kramnik were tied going into the last round and Carlsen had better tiebreaks. Kramnik thought he had to win assuming Carlsen would at least draw, but Carlsen lost and Kramnik had also pressed too hard.

    Yeah, but by that time Carlsen had been winning top tournament for years, and had been the highest rated player in the world for years. He was definitely the most deserving to play Anand for the title.

    And since then he's remained in the #1 rating spot.

    As for the candidates tournament you mention, there was some annoyance with Ivanchuk playing his best against Carlsen, and playing like shit against others, basically giving them free points. Of course this probably wasn't on purpose, that's just typical Ivanchuk.

  • #14

    Do people agree that Caruana will be a tougher opponent overall than Karjakin, or is that debatable as well?

  • #15
    3SailorsGambit wrote:

    Do people agree that Caruana will be a tougher opponent overall than Karjakin, or is that debatable as well?

    Karjakin is a great player, but somehow he hasn't consistently been in the top 10. I believe when he was challenging Carlsen he wasn't in the top 10 at the time (or maybe just barely, at #9 or 10).

    Caruana is currently rated #2, and is in good form. This should be the best WCC matchup since Kramnik - Anand nearly 10 years ago. 

  • #16

    Magnus will win.

  • #17

    Yeah, not too many people give Caruana a chance to win outright.  But then, nobody thought the last WC match would be as competitive as it was.  And as someone posted earlier, most believe that Karjakin peaked very early and FC is now the better player.

  • #18
    fischerrook wrote:

    People forget Magnus barely kept his title last time. He's also known as one of the laziest GMs. I think he will drop the title. He had his hands full in 2016 against Karjakin, winning the tie-breaks to keep his title.  Caruana will be super prepared. We will be in store for some strong chess. 

    Very good point!  Caruana is extremely humble relative to his strength, and will likely put in more effort in preparation than Carlsen will.
      http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772638
    If Caruana can play like he did in the 2014 Sinquefield cup, then it is truly Magnus who doesn't stand a chance.   His performance rating was 3000+ 

  • #19

    That's a tall order, though.  That was his career-defining performance so far.  He hasn't been able to match it since, which is why we keep talking about 2014.  Clearly if he can play the best chess of his life at the right time he has the firepower to unseat Magnus.  But the circumstances will make that exceptionally difficult.  As others have said, this isn't Carlsen's first rodeo, but for Fabiano it's all likely to be a whirlwind.

  • #20

    Magnus will fall.

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