Who is the best person to beat Magnus Carlsen?

puntaala
Karyakin
ClarkAnnaRianna

knock knock???  whose ther? 

ClarkAnnaRianna

jason llarenas,, 

superchessmachine

I am

ClarkAnnaRianna

chess machine ano ka si borris spassky??...      

superchessmachine

?

Rushi_3435

someone who can beat Magnus Carlsen ? My vote goes for Mike Tyson 

brennangraham

I think Mike would win also.

Cylvouplay

If it were for one game (even with blacks) I would say MVL, his kind of ego is able to crush the best and his creativity and extreme freedom of through (outside the boxes for pure genius moves and strategies that Carlson is unable to see) makes it really VERY possible (he had Magnus beaten already in classic and he'll do it again I'm pretty sure). But if you mean for a championship match... Not sure MVL would do it. Probably he would do something like winning the first 3 games with brilliancy just to show everybody he can do it... And then... He can't do it and looses slowly but surely. That's one sort of ego, a good disposition for genius moves, not much to become World Champ. But if sometimes he realises it and fix the problem... He's very young still, he can do it one day I hope, at least for chess's sake as MVL style is so much beautiful and inspiring compared to many others. Magnus's ego is a better kind when it comes to be world champion, because this one ego doesn't satisfy with "show people I can do", but with victory ONLY. He is spectacular in this way and we may have to prepare for an undisputed long reign. Not saying he doesn't deserve it, but my point is MVL's style is much more beautiful than Carlsen's is - MVL is for me the modern Tal somehow -> meaning how Tal whould have to adapt his style against the powerful opposition that he would run into if he were to play nowadays. Chuky I would like to say YES but unfortunately it's probably too late now. I really regret he didn't go through it all, I really used to love his character even more than his very nice style. He's for me another kind of genius, the kind that can maybe make it once (Tal or Fisher way let's say somehow). These kind of genius are not attached enough to titles to fight years and years to keep the crown. They have another kind of accomplishment in mind, some secret thing, I don't know. That's why even if I hope MVL to wake up sometime (sooner I would like) I don't expect him (if he can make it) to fight for a long reign. Those who stay W.C. for ages are usually not the genius players. I mean not those genius moves makers, not these out-of-the-box artists who inspire the world and accomplish the prodigy to move us inside deeply just by moving a piece on a board.

These days, we have two other apart from MVL, that are very impressive too and possible geniuses of the same kind (more or less) : Levon Aronian and Segey Karjakin. Levon could be extremely creative and Sergey devilishly (and deliciously) sharp and clear-sighted when he honours us with his free and inspired A-game. Both are able to beat Carlson for a few game I don't doubt, but not for a full match neither I fear -at least by now. You just can't make Carlson doubt and his regularity in very efficient and realistic chess will probably always carry the day. At least for the moment. And sometimes, but just sometimes (like the game against MVL the other day when he sacs the Queen not even for an attack but just because the Queen is worth nothing for him and then proves right) Wesley So gives me SOME hopes. But he's having good days these days. I'm fearing it doesn't last long before I'm disappointed because it's not so often that far with So. Wait and see.

So for a match... Seriously I see no one Magnus should/would fear.

Wesley So just RIGHT NOW is the most dangerous because he is in a very very nice disposition, playing better than ever, threatening to hit first place AGAIN in a major tournament (two-in-a-raw) in Paris. But again I don't bet on him against Carlson on a long run for now. Wait and see.

 

* Just to say. These 3 geniuses are very difficult to understand. Fact is chess at top level has become very hard to understand and fully enjoy. If we want to understand MVL's brilliancy we need a GM to explain us the moves. Back in Tal's days, it was really easier to show your talent. So when I want to enjoy new Chess genius I can enjoy by myself, I search at lower level, like Nazi Paikidze. She's sooooo inspiring really. Chucky in his way too, is much more accessible for low level players like us to understand. His brilliancies are very human, mostly psychological and very fun to see. Paikidze she really reminds me Tal a lot. The freedom she proves to have on the board is incredible. Seems there are some other squares in addition to the 64 that only her can see and wow. But this is not playable at World Champion level. Magnus wouldn't let a room for these nice dreams to infiltrate his domination over the board. As a matter of fact, it happened to me with tennis too. At some point I lost pleasure to watch men playing as it's too much and brilliancy is invisible somehow, let's say it : I'm too weak to appreciate. Moved to watch women and enjoyed more. Somehow it's the same with the best geniuses I talked about here (MVL, Aronian, Karjakin) that I can understand and appreciate only with help of sharp GM's commentaries. In that case it's good to have a look on lower standards tournaments, to find easier inspiration : young players (check Vincent Kaymer 13 yo, PeshKash 8 yo and such...) or women tournaments. Some are too complicated too as women are not that far from men level, but some have just a flowing brilliant simple style like Nazi Paikidze and play it successfully for my highest enjoyment.

 

- Who said 99% engines can beat Magnus? There are hundreds of engines, only a dozen are almost or completely unbeatable by humans. Many engines are very weak compared to Magnus. Most of them.

 

- Smylov said : I hear the bookies give Caruana about 30-35% chances, but Naka gives him 20-25% chance

Naka is convinced he is the best player along with Carlsen. He always underestimates A LOT all others. You know he's the kind of person who when he wins against let's say Karjakin, wins because he's better player, and when he looses, it's because he was sick or whatever. It really annoys me this contempt he always shows for other (better than him) players. Just out of politeness he should show some solidarity and say something kinder. But in the other hand my evaluation is closer to his than to yours. Caruana is in big troubles right now with much easier tournaments. Maybe he does it willingly but I don't think so and if he does it's a very dangerous - suicidal - strategy. But he's probably just not as good as we through he was or not with the required regularity. But let's assume we are lucky and our beloved Caruana comes at championships with his A-game.  Still such a championship makes it really easier for Magnus. And even without taking count of that, even if we use the best ELO caruana ever had with the worse of Magnus these last years, it's still, when applying ELO statistics, VERY unlikely Caruana wins any championship as you may know how such en event makes a small ELO difference a big difference at the end. And this accumulation of "best lucky" assumptions itself is already very unlikely so... In statistics, unlikely x unlikely approaches impossible. But we are dealing with human, that mean sometimes unpredictable genius or big unexpected struggle. So there is always a chance. I like Caruana. Somehow to me he deserves it a bit, but is he worth it? Would it be fair? I still think Carlson is a much better player.

- About Caruana, he was born just a few months I believe before Botvinik died. When we look at his face (not his facial expression, but the pure shape of the face) they look exactly alike. Face's shape looks just exactly the same to me. Some other similarities has been pointed out after I made the observation on youtube "tchat" during Paris tournament retransmission. But I pointed out also some very important differences. This may be interesting for those who believe in reincarnation. (Not trying to pretend he is Botvinik, just pointing the fact as I consider any ideas can be interesting to consider - after all considering all hypothesis is the very base of scientific method). If he were, he may show some real talent and pugnacity toward this goal after all, to get back his crown. (? this has nothing to do in a debate about his chances ! But I had to observe it anyway!)

- Prepare for the idea that Carlson will work VERY HARD with a VERY GOOD TEAM to defend his title. These guys are real dangers. They will find any weakness in Caruana that you and me would not even understand nor imagine. Well Caruana has his team too... But really you can't compare. Carlson has a very (much more than Caruana) professional $$$$ rich team they ALL WANT VERY BADLY TO WIN (or bye bye $$$$). They will really fight like tigers. Caruana we have seen him almost deflating in front of smaller difficulties in Leuven and Paris very recently. I really hope he'll soon be back with great game, but I feel worried, sincerely.

Cylvouplay
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