I saw a1400 beat a 2200 in a tournament, and it was not a case of a new under rated player, it was an old guy, been a 1400 all his life.
I watched the game because I knew both of the players, the master was up 3 pieces and got cocky, moved without thinking and overlooked a mate in two his opponent had on him. He was visibly shaken when he saw his blunder.
The chances of a 1400 defeating a 1400 is 50%
The chances of a 1400 defeating a 1500 is about 36%
The chances of a 1400 defeating a 1600 is about 24%
The chances of a 1400 defeating a 1700 is about 15%
The chances of a 1400 defeating a 1800 is about 9%
You can substitute any rating for 1400 and keep the differential the same, with the same probability. (i.e. 1850 and 2050 ~ 24%) It is just based on Prof. Elo's formula.
What this means is closer to ‘the 1400-rated gets 18 draws out of 100 and no win’…
One of the problems when higher rated plays lower rated is that higher rated 85% of the time won't play at full power... We are all relaxed and expect easy game so we are more or less calm, but at the same time lower rated is playing at 100% so there are more wins by low rated player than you expect. But i could not imagine playing in a rated tournament over the board and you play low rated, even when you are ahead material i would not let my guard down and play some lazy, funny, moves. The fact that i spendind my time being in the room, playing a game.. i will go for the checkmate at all cost. Playing online.. unofficial rated, quick games , a one pretty much does not care.. you can always create new game or play later, whatever.. but being OTB game i will put my 100%.
As an 1800, maybe I can think back to my recent games against 1400-type players.
I beat a young girl (whose family is very kind and they are friends of mine) rated around 1400 at my chess club in Baltimore last year in two different games. Both were rather easy. In the first, she made some basic tactical blunders in the opening leaving me two pawns up in an ending, and in the second, I won her queen with a discovered attack.
At the Potomac Open, I played an older woman rated around 1500 (although 1500 is her floor; it's also worth noting that her husband is a NM) and got a great position (+2 and change). Then in mutual time trouble I nearly blew it but luckily she made some tactical errors and I was able to win when she blundered on the 40th move.
In the first round of the National Chess Congress, despite playing in the U2000 section, I was matched up against a 1500 in the first round. He made a tactical blunder which left me a pawn up with a great position and then I went on to win another pawn and emerged with a clearly winning rook ending which I converted.
And then in my last tournament, the US Amateur Team East, I played two 1400-type players. One was around my age (teenager) while the other was an old man, and as usual, despite their somewhat similar ratings, the teenager was much better than the old man (as a rule, if two players of very different ages have a similar rating, the younger one is much better). In my game against the teenager (who was around 1480), I got nothing from the opening and actually went down a pawn in an ending, but I was easily able to draw because he didn't seem to know how to try to win and eventually allowed me to simplify into a dead OCB ending. In my game against the older man (who was around 1380, so to be fair, he was already lower-rated than the younger one to begin with), he played quite poorly and I won easily- I think he was very scared of me so he played extremely passively and kept moving his pieces backwards, and I was able to crash through on the kingside and win with no problems.
So those were the last 6 games I have played against people rated roughly between 1350 and 1550. In those games, I scored 5.5/6, although the half-point I scored probably would have been a loss if my opponent had played correctly. Even so, one thing that can be taken away from this is that all 1400 players are not equal. Some are young and underrated, while others may be at their floors, aging, or just out of practice. Either way, in most of my games I was able to win fairly easily. For the record, my OTB rating is currently 1837 and I have been around 1800-level for roughly the past year and some change.
All losses eventually are a crush.
That is one of many predictive outcomes.
A rating just shows the success of a person, not how good they are, a 1400 could just have had a couple of bad games to bump down his rating a little bit, if he makes no mistakes, than he could win.
every day :)