Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?


  • 31 hours ago · Quote · #4941

    arcaneterrain

    Most likely scenario for a loss would be a time loss when he thinks there is a secondary time control and there isn't.  Think that happened a few months ago, did it not?

  • 31 hours ago · Quote · #4942

    RetiFan

    arcaneterrain yazmış:

    Most likely scenario for a loss would be a time loss when he thinks there is a secondary time control and there isn't.  Think that happened a few months ago, did it not?

    Time control is a factor, yes. For example, Magnus Carlsen lost a very good game against Topalov due time. However, the question is even if that happens, would a 1300 survive until 2700 loses on time? That means 1300 should survive at least 40 moves which is roughly 0.245% chance by my calculations and 0.0125% chance by calculations of another good person here in this forum. And please be reminded that this is given the 2700 will lose on time if it comes to that. Chances of that happening is also slim.

  • 30 hours ago · Quote · #4943

    greenibex

    chessking1976 wrote:

    greenibex wrote:

    chessking1976 wrote:

     

    greenibex wrote:

    are we talking about beating someone at chess or

    something else like russian roulette?

    Chess. Russian roulette odds are just 1/6, yes?

     

     

    yes

    but a 1300 rated player at russian roulette probably gets the bullet more times than the 2700 rated russian roulette player.

    so to answer the question, then i would say a 1300 rated could not beat a 2700 player because the person would get the bullet more times.  and thus not be able to survive as long as the 2700 player

     

    Most compelling argument thus far.

    thank you

    discuss among yourselves

  • 28 hours ago · Quote · #4944

    DavidPeters2

    I don't really get people discounting scenarios where gm plays a poor game. You are basically arguing 2700 is a bigger number than 1300. Gm's do occasionally play below their rating, sometimes they play big blunders. Can a 1300 take advantage? Chances are very very tiny, but not nil. People win the lottery don't they?

     

  • 27 hours ago · Quote · #4945

    DjonniDerevnja

    RetiFan wrote:
    arcaneterrain yazmış:

    Most likely scenario for a loss would be a time loss when he thinks there is a secondary time control and there isn't.  Think that happened a few months ago, did it not?

    Time control is a factor, yes. For example, Magnus Carlsen lost a very good game against Topalov due time. However, the question is even if that happens, would a 1300 survive until 2700 loses on time? That means 1300 should survive at least 40 moves which is roughly 0.245% chance by my calculations and 0.0125% chance by calculations of another good person here in this forum. And please be reminded that this is given the 2700 will lose on time if it comes to that. Chances of that happening is also slim.

    Topalov -Carlsen 1-0 in Norway Chess was exactly that game Carlsen lost because there were new timecontrolrules, and Carlsen hadnt learnt them. 

  • 20 hours ago · Quote · #4946

    Elubas

    mdinnerspace wrote:

    "For example, playing a G/45 action tournament but suddenly has diarrhea and wastes like 30-35 minutes using the bathroom."

    This is a 1st, and possibly the most pathetic.

    See? You have a blithering criticism of opposing positions yourself -- I just took one example of many just on the last page. So it's strange to hear you complain about it to me.

  • 20 hours ago · Quote · #4947

    Elubas

    You think "if you believe it, any of your dreams can come true" kind of crap isn't a strawman of my position? I make logical arguments and you, often, take it to mean that I will be optimistic of something no matter what the probability, and that I don't live in the real world or something.

  • 20 hours ago · Quote · #4948

    Elubas

    I know you're gonna say "don't put words in my mouth" mdinnerspace, so I'll even give a quote of what you recently said on page 247:

    "Romantics dreaming of one day winning."

    Exactly the kind of strawman crap I'm talking about.

  • 15 hours ago · Quote · #4949

    DjonniDerevnja

    Elubas wrote:

    "if you believe it, any of your dreams can come true" 

    I have been on that track. One day I did beat a player rated 100 above, because I belived I was better , and I knew he feared me from previous loss. He got a bit passive and I punished him hard.

    Another day I met a player  rated 300 above me.  I thought that 300+ is to little. It should begreat winningchances. I was high on superselfconfidence. My problem was that I underestimated him, got to offensive, got punished and lost.

    Its good to believe, but if you belive too much, it can backfire.


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