Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?

RomyGer

The list is based on the rating difference between players and gives an expected score.    A score of 8-2 is expected by approx. 240 points difference, e.g. also for 2320 vs 2080 and 1140 vs 900.  And yes, I am the first one to admit that this (old) list needs an up to date revision, based on facts (results of matches). And two tolerances have to be taken into account, the 240 points at around 1400-1500 level might have another result than at 2400-2500 level ; furthermore such score as 6-4 can easily become half a point higher or lower.  The best is to draw a graph, with lines in it.

Being a Dutchman, I have to translate to understand texts like yours, and having some experience I prefer clear, plain lines, so reading  --quote--  it could be "never" or "more than" or "barely a few" --unquote--  is difficult to understand what exactly you mean.

Nevertheless, thanks for your reaction, this makes Chess-dot-com  an interesting site !

Scottrf

@RomyGer

Don't worry, I don't understand him either.

madhacker

I'd guess this is roughly equivalent of sending your sunday league pub team to the Neu Camp to face FC Barcelona. So really, a percentage which approximates to zero.

rooperi
madhacker wrote:

I'd guess this is roughly equivalent of sending your sunday league pub team to the Neu Camp to face FC Barcelona. So really, a percentage which approximates to zero.

with some of today's refs......

RetiFan

To be a reminder; the actual calculation indicates that odds are 0.0125%(1 game in 10000).

madhacker

That 1 in 10000 is going to be something like the GM faints at the board. Not that he genuinely gets outplayed.

RetiFan

No that is an actual level of odds that 1300 rated player catches a GM level mistake, 2700 doesn't play perfect but close to it you know.

rooperi
RetiFan wrote:

No that is an actual level of odds that 1300 rated player catches a GM level mistake, 2700 doesn't play perfect but close to it you know.

I think about the only chance is to catch him out with an opening novelty which the GM doesn't know or underestimates. Anything over 10 moves and the 1300 wll be so far behind he wont be able to win with an extra queen.

RetiFan
rooperi wrote:
RetiFan wrote:

No that is an actual level of odds that 1300 rated player catches a GM level mistake, 2700 doesn't play perfect but close to it you know.

I think about the only chance is to catch him out with an opening novelty which the GM doesn't know or underestimates. Anything over 10 moves and the 1300 wll be so far behind he wont be able to win with an extra queen.

My probability function also says that the chances are decreasing when game is getting longer and longer. But the problem is finding an underestimated novelty against 2700 rated player is probably harder, they just memorize the moves of the opening you choose Cry.

Nevertheless, if there is a moment to strike at the GM, it is at the opening Wink.

madhacker

@RetiFan, I'm not convinced that the ELO expectancy curve means much at the extremes. You can use it to roughly predict the score between a 2700 and a 2500 (75-25), but between a 2700 and a 1300 the curve is so close to straightening out that it may as well be straight.

rooperi

I'm wondering:

Will the 1300 have a better chance if:

  1. He really tries to play his best and carefully considers every move
  2. He tries to blitz his way through, mybe making a few good moves he would have discarded f he thought about tem.
Elubas

"This whole topic is just silly. Just because something is theoretically possible , it doesnt mean it can actually happen."

Ok, I fully admit this is pure trolling, but, I think when you say "can actually happen," you really mean "will actually happen," right? Because "theoretically possible" is defined in that it can happen.

Again, I'm trying to be annoying on purpose, so don't take it personally :)

RetiFan
Beckyschess wrote:

This whole topic is just silly. Just because something is theoretically possible , it doesnt mean it can actually happen. It is theoretically possible to flip a coin 500 times in a row and have it come up heads each time. In reality entropy will reach maximum , the universe will go dark and end before something like this could happen. 

If a 2700 player plays like a 2700 player there is no chance, none, zero, nada. Now if you want to suppose something silly like the 1300 player shoots the  2700 player and kills him in the middle of the game, then yeah the 1300 player will win. 

If I was sleep deprived, drunk, distracted, not thinking clearly and generally off in the ozone, I still couldnt loose to a 1300 player and that is no disprespect to the 1300 player. Its kind of like all five foot six of me playing Lebron James in basketball and winning. Unless he gets hit by a bus forget about it. 

Cheers, Becky

PS. im talking about otb games. Online doesnt count for diddly. 

Unfortunately, let Tails be T and Heads be H:

I threw a coin 18 times. The sequence THTTHHTHHHTTHTHTTH, in this order, have 1/(2^18) chance of appearing, but this was what has happened! So I don't buy your explanation either.

RetiFan

Also, I don't see the point in calling it zero chance. There is a big difference between 0 and 0.000125, what is it you ask? Hope I say, a purpose for 1300 rated player to play harder and harder. What does 0 chance say? Just pack your things and leave, chess is for 2000+ only.

rooperi

.000125 is 1 in 8000? I don't believe a 1300 will win one in 8000 agains a gm.

There are 1500 GMs, about, i think. Many of them play regular simuls to earn cash, if they are not at the top level it's one of the few ways "lesser" gms can earn some cash. There must be 1000's of games of GM's playing low rates. If a 1300 wins, that game will go viral, everybody will know about it. But it's not happening...... and we're not even talking about games in tournament conditions.

Dude_3
Tmattb86 wrote:

Dude_3 a.k.a the 10 year old kid who is correcting me.

There was absolutely nothing wrong with my calculations! ... simply because I didn't make any. You are quite right though, my reasoning was flawed, the odds of tossing 100 heads are much greater than a random mover beating a GM. As I am a renowned genius, the only possible excuse would be that I was tired. :)

Of course, the difference being the number of available permutations. With a coin throw we have a 0.5 probability on each 'move' of hitting the  head, whereas we could estimate in every chess position there are on average around 30 bad moves which can be played, and maybe just a couple of moves of a high enough calibre to pose the GM a challenge.. i.e. a 0.07 probability on each move.

Maybe I should change the thing on my profile to say "uknown murderer" Laughing

The forum discussions would be a lot more interesting (Dude_3 aka the unkown murderer correcting me...)lolTongue out

Dude_3
RetiFan wrote:
Beckyschess wrote:

This whole topic is just silly. Just because something is theoretically possible , it doesnt mean it can actually happen. It is theoretically possible to flip a coin 500 times in a row and have it come up heads each time. In reality entropy will reach maximum , the universe will go dark and end before something like this could happen. 

If a 2700 player plays like a 2700 player there is no chance, none, zero, nada. Now if you want to suppose something silly like the 1300 player shoots the  2700 player and kills him in the middle of the game, then yeah the 1300 player will win. 

If I was sleep deprived, drunk, distracted, not thinking clearly and generally off in the ozone, I still couldnt loose to a 1300 player and that is no disprespect to the 1300 player. Its kind of like all five foot six of me playing Lebron James in basketball and winning. Unless he gets hit by a bus forget about it. 

Cheers, Becky

PS. im talking about otb games. Online doesnt count for diddly. 

Unfortunately, let Tails be T and Heads be H:

I threw a coin 18 times. The sequence THTTHHTHHHTTHTHTTH, in this order, have 1/(2^18) chance of appearing, but this was what has happened! So I don't buy your explanation either.

Exactly.

It is like choosing a random number out of a bag of numbers -10000000000000000000000 through 10000000000000000000000, w. the decimals to the 15th place, and be surprised when you pick out something because "there is only an extremely small chance of getting this number ________!!!!!!!"

There is still chance, yet not likely.

Annabella1

I think there is a chance.....said it before.....maybe the 2700 player is having a bad hair day!!!!    hahahahahaha

renumeratedfrog01

Anand is rated around 2800, but he sporadically loses to players rated 2000 when ge gives simul exhibitions. But there's no way he'd lose to 1300, IMO... Even if he was playing without a queen to start with, he still should win.

Master_Kann
renumeratedfrog01 wrote:

Anand is rated around 2800, but he sporadically loses to players rated 2000 when ge gives simul exhibitions. But there's no way he'd lose to 1300, IMO... Even if he was playing without a queen to start with, he still should win.

+1