Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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lfPatriotGames
Kotshmot wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

Anyway, this argument or whatever it is, is over. It just remains for some others to work out their own arguments and discussions, concerning this. I'm satisfied that I've fully demonstrated that luck exists in chess, for whatever that's worth and in the face of a large amount of personal innuendo. Since I never stop learning, I have learned how to counter it relatively politely and more effectively. As a result, my effective participation in this discussion has been over since yesterday, because I demonstrated my arguments in a manner which no-one was (or is) able to refute.

It's finished, so why start making waves now? You ego needs a turn? You don't want to be left out of the bickering?

Luck in chess has been demonstrated by many people in this thread in a convincing manner, now it's just about converting it into a practical version that anyone would understand. That might be impossible.

Quite a while ago it was determined that there is luck in chess. I agree it's pretty convincing. I suggested that we move on to determining how much luck there is, since the question of whether or not it exists has been answered pretty well. 

JoeMamaForever420
btickler wrote:
mikekalish wrote:
btickler wrote:
mikekalish wrote:

@btickler and @optimissed

Many or most of your posts do not even talk about chess or luck. You just berate each other. Many of your posts contain nothing else but the insulting of the other. And you tell me MY post isn't constructive?  If I had it to do over again, I would have said exactly what I said, but sent it to Chess in a private message. 
There may be an audience who cares whether luck is a factor, but I doubt there is an audience who cares about your personal feud. 

Hmmm...you might be right.  Maybe Chess.com should moderate their forums with a tighter hand on the reins, and maybe even use judgment of intent and not just the letter of the law?  Just a thought.  That would require more manpower, though.

Wouldn't it be terrible if that were the end result of all this public confrontation between various posters?  I mean, just imagine...the repercussions could have the danger of rippling outwards, possibly also curtailing other types of attention seeking, like counting threads and the like...horrible.

I'm 100% for freedom of speech and opposed to government intervention.  I would much prefer the continuation of your bickering with each other  than to have "mind police" decide it's against the rules. As juvenile, banal, and tiresome at it often is, it's preferable to fascism. 

There's no (1) free speech, (2) government intervention, or (3) institutionalized fascism on a free market website like Chess.com.

 

the thing is that media and companies like twitter could have a large amount of control over its users.

mpaetz
btickler wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     I would like to know what your parameters of "a single discrete action/event/decision" might be. Would it be a whole game? Just a single move? Definitions of luck refer to good/bad outcomes. Are we to judge whether every move has a good or bad outcome separately from the result of the entire game?

A single determination by a player of the smallest useful unit possible...within the constraints of chess, the determination of one move.

"Are we to judge whether every move has a good or bad outcome separately from the result of the entire game?"

Now we're making progress.  If you cannot prove luck in a single move's determination, you cannot posit luck in a series of moves, either.  I said this (in so many words) many dozens of pages ago.

     An interesting conception; by divorcing every 1/2 move from any eventual (un)fortunate outcome the existence of luck can be discounted, as there is an element of benefit or loss attached to every definition of luck. Although I agree with the idea that all the moves made are each player's own doing, I have doubts as to this method of demonstrating that on two points.

     It can be reasonably argued that every gross blunder is a stroke of luck for the other player, as that player's own efforts and abilities bear no relation to the good fortune they receive in the form of a favorable position.

     Every game that does not end in checkmate is therefore a lucky win as the resignation/time forfeit/ arbiter's decision is unrelated to the winning player's actions and falls upon them like manna from heaven.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Luck has been demonstrated in a single move time and time again on this thread. However, now that this discussion's effectively over, I suppose you're mulling over the remnants and wondering if you went wrong due to bad luck or lack of skill.

Don't worry, it was bad luck, that you tried to continue Coolout's brave but ultimately ineffectual crusade, in order to try to get inside his mind, to work out what makes him tick. The argument is no different, whoever tries to make it but even so, it's maybe possible to get some insights, by working through it from the defeated combatant's p.o.v.

Almost the last thing he said to me was that he no longer thinks chess is a sport. He'd already accepted that those arguing for luck in chess are probably right. It takes some courage to reverse an opinion and he had that.

I have learned over time that your anecdotes about people that are no longer around are, shall we say, suspect.  Revisionist history is the only kind you have, as demonstrated here.

Kotshmot
mpaetz wrote:
btickler wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     I would like to know what your parameters of "a single discrete action/event/decision" might be. Would it be a whole game? Just a single move? Definitions of luck refer to good/bad outcomes. Are we to judge whether every move has a good or bad outcome separately from the result of the entire game?

A single determination by a player of the smallest useful unit possible...within the constraints of chess, the determination of one move.

"Are we to judge whether every move has a good or bad outcome separately from the result of the entire game?"

Now we're making progress.  If you cannot prove luck in a single move's determination, you cannot posit luck in a series of moves, either.  I said this (in so many words) many dozens of pages ago.

     An interesting conception; by divorcing every 1/2 move from any eventual (un)fortunate outcome the existence of luck can be discounted, as there is an element of benefit or loss attached to every definition of luck. Although I agree with the idea that all the moves made are each player's own doing, I have doubts as to this method of demonstrating that on two points.

     It can be reasonably argued that every gross blunder is a stroke of luck for the other player, as that player's own efforts and abilities bear no relation to the good fortune they receive in the form of a favorable position.

     Every game that does not end in checkmate is therefore a lucky win as the resignation/time forfeit/ arbiter's decision is unrelated to the winning player's actions and falls upon them like manna from heaven.

I see where this argument is coming from, but I see some problems with it. Chess is a skill vs skill game, where a blunder or lack of skill needs to end up with a bad result. This is how a skill based game is supposed to work. It's only a blunder if you follow up by playing a better move; therefore its not a gift but you outplaying the opponent fairly. Also, if a blunder is seen as luck, any imperfect move has to be seen as luck as well.

Gotta entertain both sides sometimes I guess

DiogenesDue
mpaetz wrote:

     An interesting conception; by divorcing every 1/2 move from any eventual (un)fortunate outcome the existence of luck can be discounted, as there is an element of benefit or loss attached to every definition of luck. Although I agree with the idea that all the moves made are each player's own doing, I have doubts as to this method of demonstrating that on two points.

     It can be reasonably argued that every gross blunder is a stroke of luck for the other player, as that player's own efforts and abilities bear no relation to the good fortune they receive in the form of a favorable position.

     Every game that does not end in checkmate is therefore a lucky win as the resignation/time forfeit/ arbiter's decision is unrelated to the winning player's actions and falls upon them like manna from heaven.

Your second paragraph shows that you are in the subjective luck/perception camp.  Thus our impasse.  Chess is played by two entities, arguing that when one makes a choice there's a magical transformation en route and the the other receives random lucky outcomes on the receiving end is not an argument I will ever accept.

DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:

I see where this argument is coming from, but I see some problems with it. Chess is a skill vs skill game, where a blunder or lack of skill needs to end up with a bad result. This is how a skill based game is supposed to work. It's only a blunder if you follow up by playing a better move; therefore its not a gift but you outplaying the opponent fairly. Also, if a blunder is seen as luck, any imperfect move has to be seen as luck as well.

Gotta entertain both sides sometimes I guess

A blunder is objectively a blunder, whether taken advantage of or not.  No follow up required.

DiogenesDue
JoeMamaForever420 wrote:

the thing is that media and companies like twitter could have a large amount of control over its users.

Thank you, recently minted right wing sockpuppet.

mpaetz
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Quite a while ago it was determined that there is luck in chess. I agree it's pretty convincing. I suggested that we move on to determining how much luck there is, since the question of whether or not it exists has been answered pretty well. 

     In actuality we have been doing that all along. Some say that getting a winning position from an opponent's blunder is a lucky break. Some say that the only luck in chess is getting to be white. Some say that an element of chance exists in every move as we cannot calculate all possibilities to 100% certainty. I remember you saying that when a player can't figure out which move out of a few likely choices is best, a random choice must be made and if it is good that is luck. Some when a solid move turns out to be much stronger than the player thought a few moves down the line, that's unearned good fortune. I say that computer glitches online or heart attacks at the board are just about the only bits of sheer luck in chess. Some say mouse-slips or moving pieces to the wrong square that turn out to be great moves are lucky.

     I imagine that getting agreement on just which things are luck, and what% of the game that constitutes would be a daunting task.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

More than a lot of people might think, perhaps. But luck respects all levels of ability and hides itself well. Hence this conversation.

Back to the navel-gazing among compatriots, I see.

Luck doesn't respect, or hide.  It's not a force, or an entity with awareness.

JoeMamaForever420

 

lfPatriotGames
mpaetz wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Quite a while ago it was determined that there is luck in chess. I agree it's pretty convincing. I suggested that we move on to determining how much luck there is, since the question of whether or not it exists has been answered pretty well. 

     In actuality we have been doing that all along. Some say that getting a winning position from an opponent's blunder is a lucky break. Some say that the only luck in chess is getting to be white. Some say that an element of chance exists in every move as we cannot calculate all possibilities to 100% certainty. I remember you saying that when a player can't figure out which move out of a few likely choices is best, a random choice must be made and if it is good that is luck. Some when a solid move turns out to be much stronger than the player thought a few moves down the line, that's unearned good fortune. I say that computer glitches online or heart attacks at the board are just about the only bits of sheer luck in chess. Some say mouse-slips or moving pieces to the wrong square that turn out to be great moves are lucky.

     I imagine that getting agreement on just which things are luck, and what% of the game that constitutes would be a daunting task.

Yes. But the topic has pretty much ended. So we, mostly, agree there is at least some luck in chess. Because of what luck is, and what chess is, and what people are, there has to be at least some luck in chess. So to me it makes more sense to discuss how much, rather than if it's there.

I say between 5 and 10 percent. 

JoeMamaForever420

 

mpaetz
btickler wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     An interesting conception; by divorcing every 1/2 move from any eventual (un)fortunate outcome the existence of luck can be discounted, as there is an element of benefit or loss attached to every definition of luck. Although I agree with the idea that all the moves made are each player's own doing, I have doubts as to this method of demonstrating that on two points.

     It can be reasonably argued that every gross blunder is a stroke of luck for the other player, as that player's own efforts and abilities bear no relation to the good fortune they receive in the form of a favorable position.

     Every game that does not end in checkmate is therefore a lucky win as the resignation/time forfeit/ arbiter's decision is unrelated to the winning player's actions and falls upon them like manna from heaven.

Your second paragraph shows that you are in the subjective luck/perception camp.  Thus our impasse.  Chess is played by two entities, arguing that when one makes a choice there's a magical transformation en route and the the other receives random lucky outcomes on the receiving end is not an argument I will ever accept.

     The second paragraph would only apply if every 1/2 move were separated from the rest of the game for purposes of evaluating results. The person returning from the restroom to find a favorable position not of their own making is no less lucky than a person looking at the pairings sheet and finding they will have the white pieces. Nothing magical about that; and remember my position is that bad moves are the player's own doing. Taking the game as a whole, there will be plenty of mistakes on both sides and saying this move was 11% lucky for the other player, that move is 8% lucky for the player that made it, and so on would be ridiculous. My problem is with making every 1/2 move it's own discrete action needing evaluation.

     And of course luck is subjective. Should a desperately hungry man step on a bag containing a half-eaten cheeseburger he will be elated; should I do so I'd toss it in a trash bin.

     

DiogenesDue

Average TCEC games last about 60 moves.  That's 120 half moves.  The initial move advantage is one half move...

So the percentage of luck in chess is ~0.83% at the highest levels currently, or ~1.2% for lowly human beings that average 40 move games.

Kotshmot
btickler wrote:
Kotshmot wrote:

I see where this argument is coming from, but I see some problems with it. Chess is a skill vs skill game, where a blunder or lack of skill needs to end up with a bad result. This is how a skill based game is supposed to work. It's only a blunder if you follow up by playing a better move; therefore its not a gift but you outplaying the opponent fairly. Also, if a blunder is seen as luck, any imperfect move has to be seen as luck as well.

Gotta entertain both sides sometimes I guess

A blunder is objectively a blunder, whether taken advantage of or not.  No follow up required.

True but it is no use if you dont outplay your opponent. Why nit pick an irrelevant sentence to the point that was made?

DiogenesDue
mpaetz wrote:

     The second paragraph would only apply if every 1/2 move were separated from the rest of the game for purposes of evaluating results. The person returning from the restroom to find a favorable position not of their own making is no less lucky than a person looking at the pairings sheet and finding they will have the white pieces. Nothing magical about that; and remember my position is that bad moves are the player's own doing. Taking the game as a whole, there will be plenty of mistakes on both sides and saying this move was 11% lucky for the other player, that move is 8% lucky for the player that made it, and so on would be ridiculous. My problem is with making every 1/2 move it's own discrete action needing evaluation.

     And of course luck is subjective. Should a desperately hungry man step on a bag containing a half-eaten cheeseburger he will be elated; should I do so I'd toss it in a trash bin.

Not all elements of luck are subjective.  Especially in game design where the goal in injecting luck into gameplay is usually to have it be completely equitable for all players.

ungewichtet
lfPatriotGames wrote:
 Because of what luck is, and what chess is, and what people are, there has to be at least some luck in chess. So to me it makes more sense to discuss how much, rather than if it's there.

I say between 5 and 10 percent. 

Ah. Thanks. Is that how many of the move choices depend on luck or how much the result depends on luck? I say the worse we can play the more of our moves depend on luck, but the better we play, the more decisive is luck.

What is the other 90-95%?

I say it is love, memory, openess, patience, curiosity, laughter, exchange, real virtuality, quickness and death.

Kotshmot
ungewichtet wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:
 Because of what luck is, and what chess is, and what people are, there has to be at least some luck in chess. So to me it makes more sense to discuss how much, rather than if it's there.

I say between 5 and 10 percent. 

Ah. Thanks. Is that how many of the move choices depend on luck or how much the result depends on luck? I say the worse we can play the more of our moves depend on luck, but the better we play, the more decisive is luck.

What is the other 90-95%?

I say it is love, memory, openess, patience, curiosity, laughter, exchange, real virtuality, quickness and death.

"Worse we play, more luck, better we play, more decisive is luck"

This indeed. Very hard and maybe a little pointless to estimate the actual amount because for example to absolute beginners it could be something like 50% lol. So it very much depends.

DiogenesDue
Kotshmot wrote:
A blunder is objectively a blunder, whether taken advantage of or not.  No follow up required.

True but it is no use if you dont outplay your opponent. Why nit pick an irrelevant sentence to the point that was made?

Because if you were wrong about this, you might also be wrong about other positions you hold and examine them again?