My take on " THE CANDIDATES TOURNAMENT"

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Fear_ItseIf

Mar 15, 2013

#21

^what estragon said.
Also Carlsen has stamina, so hes chances improve over time, it may only be possible to stop him early.

SmyslovFan

Mar 16, 2013

#22

Estragon wrote:

You are assuming quite a bit. An early loss is certain to put a player behind. A loss in the second half is by no means certain to "drop a full point behind" since he could be leading by two points when it happens.

Tiebreaks do not apply in this tournament, either. If there is a tie for first, it will be played off: the challenger will not be determined by tiebreaks.

It seems that you are the one making assumptions here. I stated that if Carlsen drops out of first place by a full point in the second half, even Carlsen may not be able to catch up.

Regarding tie-breaks:

Here's the tournament rules:

3. 7 Tie-breaks

If the top two or more players score the same points, the tie will be decided by the following criteria, in order of priority:

a) The results of the games between the players involved in the tie.

If they are still tied:

b) The total number of wins in the tournament of every player involved in the tie.

If they are still tied:

c) Sonneborn - Berger System.

3.7.1.a If there is no clear winner with the above 3 criteria, there will be a special competition between the players who still remain

tied after using the 3rd criteria (Sonneborn - Berger): after a new drawing of colors, each tied player will play two (2) tie-break games

with the other tied opponent(s). The games shall be played using the electronic clock starting with 25 minutes for each player with an

increment of 10 seconds after each move.

repossession

Mar 16, 2013

#23

It has nothing to do with probabilities, but a lot to do with game psychology.

If Carlsen loses a game early in the event, putting him in a hole (it will take at least +2, 8.0/14, and perhaps more, to win the tournament), the strategy changes not only for him, but for all competitors. He must undertake greater risks, which puts him at risk for another loss that might devastate his chances.

But it is even more significant the effect an early Carlsen loss would have on the field. All those ahead of him would be inspired, reinvigorated, and eager to put themselves another game ahead by beating another rival rather than settling for a draw.

Only those who have never played in a round robin tournament could possibly think that WHEN a win or loss occurs is not of great significance in the competition.

Again, it is seemingly so natural that I thought it was a truism. However, I am looking for more rigor. What your argument lacks is a measurement of the effects inspiration, reinvigoration, etc., have on tournament results.

Also a rational basis for reacting in such a way should be provided. For instance, rationale based on probabilities--or rather perceived probabilities--would do.

Btw: Your original statement is: "If someone can nick Carlsen for a win early, it could be a wide-open affair. The longer he can hang around the lead, the less likely someone else will be able to dislodge him." Notice that the conclusion of your claim is a statement about the likelihood of an event. Compare that with the definition of probability. There is simply no way of asserting and arguing for your claim without dealing with probabilities at some level.

beardogjones

Mar 16, 2013

#24

A Carlsen loss injects new information into the system, how the system responds is less likely to be thorough near the end.

kiyana7

Mar 16, 2013

#25

[COMMENT DELETED]

GreedyPawnGrabber

Mar 16, 2013

#26

Gelfand will win again.

SmyslovFan

Mar 16, 2013

#27

That would be amusing, GPG. But I liked what was said at chessvibes about him. He has the skills to win again, but this isn't a match-play tournament and he's not as young as he once was. It's just too much to ask for him to bounce back so quickly and repeat the feat of a lifetime.

Btw, Caruana, Erwin L'Ami and others (not just at ChessVibes) have also argued that one of Carlsen's greatest strengths is his stamina, both in individual games and toward the end of tournaments. The consensus seems to be that Kramnik is getting old. Kramnik's dropping points late in tournaments will happen more frequently, and sadly may happen here.