My guess is not until a vaccine is available. (Probably at least a year, maybe longer.)
Now that I think about it a bit more, maybe sooner than that, IF we can set up a workable and effective antibody testing program, and IF the tournament directors required all attendees to have a positive antibody test. However, even that might not be enough, since we don't know for sure yet whether people can get the virus a second time, or how long the immunity might last.
Chess Tournaments generally require a lot of preparatory work in securing the playing site - even if it's free at a school or library - and anticipating how many paying players will show up to cover the various costs.
So I would guess September more than May. But since we don't know if COVID-19 is seasonal or not, it's very hard to predict.
Good grief! I just want the corona virus to go away, and you all are whining about when the chess tournaments are going to open up!
I would guess longer than sooner. 2021 seems reasonable. Right now, however, chess tournaments (really any kind of tournament) is pretty low on my list of priorities. Stay safe, stay well . . .
Good grief! I just want the corona virus to go away, and you all are whining about when the chess tournaments are going to open up!
That's the point... we're all in this together... we want COVID-19 to stop so that we can continue activities such as chess tournaments and other things. I don't see anything wrong with it 
As to state my opinion, to avoid conflict, and to recognize the uncertainty, I won't reveal exactly when I think tournaments will continue. I do believe there will be more chess tournaments in 2020. Some chess clubs may just close their events until 2021, though if we can maintain social distancing and follow other safety procedures consistently as we have been doing, I would be surprised to see all chess tournaments shut down for the rest of 2021.
My two cents, but, you guessed it, I'm no expert in this field
I don't plan on playing any OTB anytime soon. I have an elderly family member to worry about (and I'm no spring chicken myself), so I'm trying to be overly cautious. I can't imagine paying for the privilege of allowing myself to be sealed up in a tournament hall with a bunch of hygienically challenged chess players. The logistics of keeping everyone safe appear to me to be an impossible task.
I would guess longer than sooner. 2021 seems reasonable. Right now, however, chess tournaments (really any kind of tournament) is pretty low on my list of priorities. Stay safe, stay well . . .
I decided not to even waste the time.
There have been less than 110,000 deaths world wide so far to date due to COvID. There were about 75 million people that died during World War Two. This is the most overrated story about nothing since I have been alive.
WWII lasted 6 years. COVID-19 has been here for a few months. WWII had mass bombings and the dropping of two Nucs. Let's all hope COVID-19 doesn't last 6 years . . .
There have been less than 110,000 deaths world wide so far to date due to COvID. There were about 75 million people that died during World War Two. This is the most overrated story about nothing since I have been alive.
The virus isn't going away, and it will continue being a problem until an effective vaccine is made. It's sort of like the "Whack-A-Mole" game. We hunker down and practice physical distancing, and the case count peaks and then goes down to minimal levels. But, as soon as we relax the physical distancing rules and stick our heads above ground, the virus will be waiting for us to start another wave. So, that 110,000 number is only the beginning - more to come, I'm afraid.
As far as the virus being nothing, I guess it IS nothing as long as you survive it. If you don't survive it, I guess YOU end up being nothing. And is that you in your avatar pic? You look like you might have a bit of insulin resistance going on. I wouldn't be so smug if I were you. ;-)
Morphys-Revenge wrote:
There have been less than 110,000 deaths world wide so far to date due to COvID. There were about 75 million people that died during World War Two. This is the most overrated story about nothing since I have been alive.
Morphy's Revenge,
Let's talk about the death toll and death rate. Today (it is late on April 11th here on the west coast), there are 110,000 worldwide deaths and 20,000 deaths in the USA.
Of the 110,000 deaths, over half have occurred in the past 9 days. Of the 20,000 USA deaths, over half have occurred in the past 6 days. This means that there have been an average of 6,000 worldwide deaths per day and 2,000 of those have been US deaths per day over the past week from this virus. In addition, there are 1.7 million infections and over half of those have been in the past week.
To put this in perspective we had about 3,000 people die on 9/11/2001 in New York City. That means we are having the equivalent of two 9/11 events everyday worldwide, and within 3 days will be having the equivalent of one 9/11 event everyday just here in the US. This is expected to last for at least the next 15 days, which is how they arrive at the 60,000 to 80,000 death estimate. But, of course, as long as people like you do not do social distancing, then this number will rise--and do so at an exponential rate. This is how the original estimate of 1 million to 2,2 million deaths was calculated
Note that none of those were deaths were from a war, from a famine, or from gang or drug violence. These were deaths of civilians who did the very dangerous act of going outside their homes to buy groceries, go to work, pick up pharmacies, or visit their friends in person. Maybe this seems like a non-event to you, but these are real deaths by real people, and trust me, they and their families do not consider these non-events. Please, for your sake, and the sake of all of us, stay safe and enjoy your Easter at home;--perhaps playing a game of online chess.
We're talking about in-person tournaments
A fair question. I think it would pay to be a bit more cautious than necessary, to mitigate the risk of another spike in COVID-19 cases.
There have been less than 110,000 deaths world wide so far to date due to COvID. There were about 75 million people that died during World War Two. This is the most overrated story about nothing since I have been alive.
Is this some sort of weird coping technique so you don't have to deal with the truth that you're older and if you get this you're toast?
Well, to be fair, he doesn't look THAT old. (I might be a bit older.) Age alone doesn't automatically mean you're toast, but it does increase the chance of a bad outcome. That's the challenge of this virus - it's new, there's no vaccine, and we're struggling to understand the attack vector of the virus.
The 110,000 coronavirus deaths are not calculated like normal death rates from the flu or even death rates from disease in WW2. Those others were counted using estimates of excess deaths based on changes in trend. The current coronavirus deaths are more or less confirmed virus deaths. My guess is that using the same methods used to estimate excess deaths a year later as is typical will result in 500,000 deaths if using the same methods used to calulate annual flu deaths. For example in Europe, confirmed flu deaths are usually an order of magnitude lower than those estimated using excess death/trend change calculations.
Obviously, our OTB chess tournaments are shut down due to COVID-19.
However, they have to start back up again someday!
I've heard hopefully May, I've heard possibly September.
I think what's important (and our governors will help ensure this doesn't happen) is that once the outbreak deteriorates, it will be a slow process to normalcy. I don't believe we will experience 100% normalcy for awhile. However, we need to get our economy started again sometime...
Also, as far as my rudimentary knowledge of this virus is concerned, places in USA are peaking or coming close to peaking.
I understand no one knows the answer... but we can speculate!
Hopefully sooner than later, but also good to be careful...