can magnus carlson cross the 3000 elo barrier

+5 in next 8 games to get over 2900...

How does one go about finding our their own ELO rating? 

i think its possible if he keep this incredible shape,he just doesnt lose games anymore and pull wins out of nothing. we will see how long it lasts

Carlsen is just a god. Really amazing, that he has such a reputation, and he can still live up to it.

Engines are not Fide Rated.

Even if he out performs in a match against an engine, he wouldn´t get any rating points.

Breaking 2900 is of course possible. Breaking 3000 is only possible in a mathematician's dream. Practically, there's just no way that will happen (as long as we are talking about FIDE ratings).

after beating Anand 10 straight games, 3000 should be extremely possible.

Breaking 2900 is not only possible, it is going to happen. Carlsen will become the first Master to reach that milestone. Reaching 3000? Don't hold your breath...he has too much of a distance between himself and the field for him to reach that cloud. The perfect storm would need to happen for him to do so...a greater number of players above 2800, and then he would need to beat them like a drum.

Even beating Anand 30 games in a row wouldn't be enough to reach 3000.

He wouldn't need more people over 2800; he would merely need to beat 2700s more consistently for example. A 300 point gap would mean he would need to score about 90% vs 2700s; that's asking too much I think.

2900 = Magnus
3000 = Seeing that Bh8 trick at 2013 candidates Carlsen vs Svidler Match. which is nearly nearly impossible. C'mon nobody can play chess at that level. I think 2900 should satisfy Carlsen when he gets there

Of course. He is the only player in the modern era who has any realistic chances of crossing the 3000 barrier. Even if not in near future, he will surely cross it one day

Wow Estragon, you really think Carlsen could reach 3000? With the current strength structure draws and loses are a major point loss for him...and he certainly can't win every game he plays. This is why I argued that more players above 2800 would be needed for him to accomplish this feat. What is he winning at now, about 70%. The problem I see is that as he increases his distance from the field so too will he be loosing more points for draws and loses.

Carlsen had a 3002 TPR in Nanjing 2009, after scoring 80% in one of the strongest tournaments of the year, and he had a 2994 TPR after scoring more than 80% in London 2012. He also scored 80% in Zurich 2014, which was enough to reach a 3027 TPR. Those are the three highest TPRs of his career. But scoring 80% and higher in such fields every single time is just impossible.

3000 will get 2.5 for winning 2800, which means he will need to score 75% against 2800 and impressive 85% against 2700 which is hard to believe...

The idea isn't that he has 3000 strength but can't reach the rating because of weak opponents. He doesn't have 3000

Here's a hypothetical scenario where Carlsen scores 8/10 in the next 19 tournaments he enters. We'll assume his average opponent is set at 2775, which is about right for the Nakamura's, Caruana's and Karjakin's of the chess world.

Initially, 8/10 would bring him big Elo gains against this field, but the rate of return soon starts dropping:

 Based on this, I can't see Carlsen ever getting much above 2950.

Looking at the last years of the 1990s, Kasparov scored 67% against opposition rated just below what was then top 10 level (2686). None of the hundreds of players on the list below reached 70%, so 80% today against 2775 (World #7) is a very high number:

http://members.aon.at/sfischl/1990b.txt

I think I remember hearing Kasparov say that "he should have found it" :)

I think it was him. All too easy to say as a spectator, though.

"This is why I argued that more players above 2800 would be needed for him to accomplish this feat."

A 3000 should be able to score a certain score against 2800s, and an even higher score against 2700s. That's what it means to be 3000. Someone who is truly 3000 should be able to get such an expected score against 2700s.

There could be some stylistic difference that makes it easier for him to play against 2800s than 2700s (keeping in mind against the 2800s he doesn't have to score as well), but then again it could just as easily be the other way around. You may say how hard it is to get so many wins against 2700s -- but it's even harder to do that against 2800s :) So I'm not sure why more 2800s would make Carlsen more confident about getting to 3000. It could slightly speed up the long run trend perhaps, but nothing more.

His draw with Karjakin (2772) cost him 1.5 points. He certainly can't win all his games, so loses and draws will cost him points. What is that ratio that he needs to maintain to continue to proceed forward? 2900 I can see, but the road to 3000 is too far ahead. He will need to win 80% of games playing 2700s...how possible is this? I think 70% is more likely. IMHO the road is too steep for him to reach 3000 given the current strength of his opponents.