Move 28: the conditional move thread

Unless anyone disagrees with 27. ... Rc6, we should continue the discussion here, starting with a summary of the analysis from the last move. White options include:

28. Bc4

and

28. Rb4

There is a lot of good analysis of both to summarise and refine, in the move 27 conditional move thread.

an immediate 28.Bc4 allows 28...b5, so...

Rb4=>Bc4 looks more probable:

28.Rb4 Bd8

29.Ra1 ?

30.Bc4

another possibility:

28.Rb4 Bd8

29.Ra1 b5

30.axb6 31.Rbxb6

If Rb4 Bd8 she will play Qa4 over Rad1, she has no reason to reduce pressure on the d-file and the queen is fine on a4. 

The question to ask is do we want to play Bd8 after Rb4 since we don't need to.  We could use a tempo to play g6 or Kf8.  She can probably still force us to play Bd8 later but it's worth it to ask if there is a different move we should play.

i posted this on the VC and now here.

MostWanted147, that looks reasonable up until the queen trade.  She doesn't get anything out of trading queens.  So move the queen to a2 pressuring the a and the f pawn and not dropping the b-pawn as a likely improvement for white

edit: A new question what if 31 Bxa6? she seems to be up a pawn

I think Bd8/Qa5/Rbc8 and then she is stopped

MostWanted147, in your line white hangs the a-pawn. White possibly will play 29. Qa4 instead of 29. Bc4.

This loses for white:

29. Bc4 Qxa5 loses a pawn.

30. Rxb7 attempting to regain pawn. Rxb7

31.  Qxb7 Rxc4 loses the bishop.

32. Qb8+ Bd8 and the white rook can't take d6 because of Qa1+ followed by mate.

33. Qxd6 Rc8. Black is up a bishop for a pawn.

The below diagram shows a couple moves forward from Ivan's line above.  Black has an upcoming double attack - attacking the e4 pawn and the bishop on a6.  However the white bishop can guard e4 and free itself from attack in one move.  Black then could try for a mate, but pushing the g pawn prevents that. Looks like Bxa6 (line above) is a problem, unless someone sees something else here we can't play b5 that quickly without losing a pawn.

I'm not sure she can play Bc4 quick, because it looks like we can play b5 after that?

ivan_the_truble,

Yes it is obviously optimistic on a few levels, but the whole variation is practically forced once 28) Rc6, Bc4.  If she doesn't take the pawn on d6 (if she does she will lose), she can take the a pawn, and there I see an advantage for black.

What moves are expected next:

1) Rb4

2) Rd5

If rook to d5 I'm a little worried about putting the bishop on e7, because maybe white's bishop is more useful, although I'm not sure of a better response to Rd5.

We defend the next two moves and then she'll have to show us somehting new

The interesting point is what will she do after 29...Rbc8.  At least I'm curious at what she'll play at that point

I think it will be time well-spent if we dwell less on wishful thinking that she will play a weak move - she won't.

b5 also, IMO, in any variation, is not a wise move (unless we get an immediate compensation). it makes our light-square-dwelling a-pawn (won't get time to push it to a dark square) easy-picking. Then she gets an endgame with a passed b-pawn (again she will be superlative in her endgame - if it can be won, she will win it).

She just might play Bc4 next move to provoke b5:

28. Bc4 b5 29. axb6 Rcxb6 30. Rb4 Rxb4 31. cxb4 now how do we propose to save the a-pawn?

Estragon,

31...Qb7? is replied by 32.Rxd6

(32...Qxe4 33.Rxa6)(32...Qxb4 33.Qxb4 Rxb4 34.Rxa6)

DSARKAR,

"b5 in any variation is not a wise idea - our a-pawn will remain on white square (we won't get the time to push it), and will be easy-picking for white. Then she has a won endgame (it will be a very difficult one, as the promoting square is dark) with a passed b-pawn."

Then what was the point of 26...Rb8 (?)  We could see all along that we were not going to be able to play b5.

We are forced to play c6 to prevent Bxa6 by White.  Were we making defensive moves that don't defend?

Estragon,

31...Qb7  32 Rxd6 Qxe4  33 Rxa6 Qe1+  34 Bf1 Bd2 35.b5 e4 36.b6

white will probably play g3/h3 to free up the bishop

Can't agree with the views on b5, for the reason that we have no choice in the matter. If we don't, what is to stop white winning our b-pawn with the following manoever -  Rb4, Bc4, Bd5, Rb6, Ra1, Ra4 R4b4 ? This would put 3 major pieces and the bishop on our b7 pawn, with us only having 3 pieces to defend it. Where would we find counterplay? Hence although I too was of the opinion that b5 is a risky move, I believe it will become essential before very long.

b5 is helped by Qb3, and if white plays Rb4, she will be a move further from winning our a-pawn. Obviously we have to develop counterplay after we play b5, and this is firstly by attacking b2. White will probably attempt to play b3 securing the b-pawn completely when our counterplay shifts to the c-file.

My work is done. My purpose was to bring the hazard of b5 to the attention of at least some of the important people involved in the decision-making - I have succeeded in doing so.

Now this analysis counts more than ever.  I will vote with the alliance.