PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor 2

2019 PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor

With just three weeks left in the regular season of the PRO Chess League, we are finally starting to get a good idea of which teams are good, which teams are average, and which teams are going to need to requalify if they want to be part of the PRO Chess League next year. With everything I’ve seen this year throughout the league, I’ve come to one conclusion: The PRO Chess League is awesome. I think the chess so far this year has been great, with more than a fair share of both excellent positional games and sharp, tactical games, which has kept fans interested all season. I also think that the depth of the league has increased. The best teams aren’t too dominant and the worst teams aren’t too much worse than the average teams. In the second edition of the PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor, I should be able to predict most of the 16 playoff teams, since the year is nearing its finish, though I will still undoubtedly get some wrong.

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Playoff Teams:

Atlantic Division:

1. Saint Louis Arch Bishops: Though this team has struggled in the past few weeks, they are still in the second spot in the Atlantic and are only ½ point behind New York for the top spot. With Caruana and So on the team, it’s hard to bet against the Arch Bishops
2. New York Marshalls: The Marshalls are one of three teams in the league that has not lost a single match in division play this year. They are being led Wojciech Moranda and Sergei Azarov, both of whom are under 2600 rated in classic time control, which begs the question: Why are they so good?
3. Webster Windmills: As I predicted in the last edition, the Windmills have dropped to third in the division but look like a lock to make the playoffs. They are a talented bunch with as good of a chance as any team to take down the Arch Bishops.
4. Montreal Chessbrahs: though they aren’t in a playoff spot, they are only 3.5 points behind Montclair for the final spot, and I think they have the means of taking it. Now that Anish Giri had finally played some games, I think he’ll be the difference for Montreal in their week 9 match against Montclair, which is likely for the final playoff spot

Pacific Division:

1. Dallas Destiny: This team has been on an absolute tear since the first battle royale, with 126.5 points since week 4. Only 10 teams in the league have more points than that for the whole season. This team is red hot, and if they can keep it going, no one is going to want to play Dallas.
2. Chengdu Pandas: The Pandas have been extremely consistent this year, with only one loss and two 2nd place Battle Royales. This consistency has the potential to take them deep into the playoffs. With loads of top talent, the biggest problem for the Pandas may be who to start each week.
3. Australia Kangaroos: The Kangaroos have only lost one match this year, but are on the verge of missing the playoffs due to poor play in the Battle Royales. The good news is that in the playoffs, the games are head-to-head. The bad news is that they still have one more Battle Royale left this season, and it could make or break their season
4. Seattle Sluggers: The last two spots in this division are as hard as any to predict, but I think I’m going with Seattle in the last spot despite the fact that Minnesota has 19 more points than them right now. One reason is that the Blizzard have only won one match this year and have been saved by great Battle Royales, which I think means that they really aren’t that good. Another reason is that Seattle gets to play Minnesota this week, and I’m betting on Seattle.

Eastern Division:

1. Tbilisi Gentlemen: The league leaders in points have looked dominant all year. They haven’t lost a match and in their two Battle Royales, they finished 1st and 4th, respectively. Their match this week with Armenia looks like it’s for the top spot in the division, and it might be the best match of the year.
2. Armenia Eagles: Armenia has also not lost a match the whole year, which makes this matchup against Tbilisi even more mouthwatering. With two 3rd place finishes in Battle Royales, the Eagles have shown their consistency as a team. Regardless of whether or not they get the top spot in the division, this team is really good.
3. Moscow Wizards: With the Wizards playing really good chess the past two weeks, Moscow is now looking like a lock for the playoffs. They haven’t played super GM Ian Nepomniachtchi all season, but perhaps they are saving him as a weapon for the playoffs. It will be interesting to see what they do with him because he is great, but they have proved they can win without him.
4. Mumbai Movers: With their ugly 8th place finish in last week’s Battle Royale and 3.5-12.5 performance the week before that, I understand if you’re skeptical. Remember that this team also got 1st place in the first Battle Royale and is 3-2 in divisional play this year. They can be streaky, although right now they are on the wrong side of a streak.

Central Division:

1. Norway Gnomes: The Gnomes are a very deep team, getting good scores from their lower boards nearly every week. That is a formula for success, and it gives them great chances to make a deep playoff run.
2. Amsterdam Mosquitos: The Mosquitos have been playing great chess the past three weeks, with two wins to go along with first place in their Battle Royale. Their playoff spot is by no means secured with this division being so close, but the way they are playing now makes them a dangerous team for any potential playoff opponent.
3. Barcelona Raptors: The fight for the final two playoff spots is going to be very interesting since many of the teams on the verge of either making or missing the playoffs are playing each other, which makes this very difficult to predict. However, Barcelona has only two losses by a combined margin of 3 points, so they feel better than their current standing.
4. Cannes Blitzstreams: Right now Baden Baden has a 15 point lead on Cannes, but Cannes will make up the ground due to an easier schedule in the next two weeks. If the Blitzstreams do make the playoffs, they will need more from their lower boards, because right now they are being carried by Jan-Krzysztof Duda and Maxime Lagarde.

Playoffs: In the playoffs, the 1 seed in every division plays the 4 seed and the 2 plays the 3.  Then the winners play each other That means that one team from every division is going to make the coveted final four. From there, the team with the most points gets to choose its opponent, and the other two teams face off. Then the winners of the two semifinal matchups get to compete for $20,000. If there is a tie in the first two rounds, then the team with more regular season points with advance. In the semifinals and finals, there will be a tiebreak to determine a winner. You can always check the PRO Chess League Rules for clarification of the playoff structure.

Round 1:

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Montreal Chessbrahs: In the rematch of their week 3 spectacle, things will be different this time around. The two teams have gone in opposite directions, with the Chessbrahs collapsing and barely making the playoffs, while the Arch Bishops have been very good despite some midseason struggles. Saint Louis will dominate thanks to improved play by Josh Bloomer and Nikolas Theodorou.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

New York Marshalls vs. Webster Windmills: This is another great rematch from when New York made an incredible comeback against Webster to eventually kick them off the top spot in the division. This time, the Windmills will get a lead and keep it thanks to Vasif Durarbayli and team MVP Ray Robson.

Winner: Webster Windmills

Dallas Destiny vs. Seattle Sluggers: The Destiny had a great hot streak, but they’ve since cooled off and they get to play red-hot Seattle, who made a great push just to get into the playoffs. Hikaru Nakamura and the rest of the Sluggers will use their momentum to earn them a shocking first-round upset over one of the best teams in the regular season.

Winner: Seattle Sluggers

Chengdu Pandas vs. Australia Kangaroos: Chengdu has more talent than just about anybody in the league, and they will be able to give the Kangaroos more than they can handle. Any combination of Ding Liren, Yu Yangyi, Li Chao and Wang Yue should be much better than any top board combination that Australia can put forward.

Winner: Chengdu Pandas

Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Mumbai Movers: The Gentlemen had an undefeated regular season that proved that they were the best team in the division. This first round will be no different. The Movers will not be able to get through the deep Gentlemen team, and Nika Volkov will prove once again how valuable he is to the Gentlemen.

Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen

Armenia Eagles vs Moscow Wizards: The Eagles only lost one game in the regular season and they were easily the second best team in the division. They will dominate the Wizards, giving fans the rematch that everyone wants to see against the Gentlemen.

Winner: Armenia Eagles

Norway Gnomes vs. Cannes Blitzstreams: The Gnomes don’t have the top-tier talent that the Blitzstreams have, but the Blitzstreams get blown away in depth. This match will be closer than expected, but ultimately the depth of the Gnomes will be the deciding factor, propelling the Gnomes to the next round

Winner: Norway Gnomes

Amsterdam Mosquitos vs Barcelona Raptors: The Mosquitos and the Raptors are pretty evenly matched. The Mosquitos, however, have gotten better play from their lower boards than the Raptors. In this match, the lower boards will win the day for the Mosquitos in a very close match.

Winner: Amsterdam Mosquitos

Round 2:

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Webster Windmills: The Arch Bishops are led by Caruana and So, which is great, but Robson and Durarbayli have played just as well this season. In order to win this match, Saint Louis will have to rely on Josh Bloomer and Nikolas Theodorou to put up 3 points combined for the Arch Bishops to push past the Windmills. While I think this match will be close, I still see Saint Louis in the final four.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

Chengdu Pandas vs. Seattle Sluggers: The Pandas have a lot of great high-rated players but in the playoffs, it takes more than that to win. Likewise, the Sluggers have Nakamura and Sargissian, but a pretty suspect roster past them. The Pandas will come out victorious because of the 3 point effort by Bai Jinshi, not just because of their top boards.

Winner: Chengdu Pandas

Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Armenia Eagles: The last time these teams faced, it was for the top spot in the division. This time, it’s for a spot in the final four and the title of division champions. This game features deep rosters from both teams and terrific lower board players Giga Quparadze and Nikola Volkov for Tbilisi and Shant and Ana Sargsyan for Armenia. Volkov will fall flat, and the Eagles will claim the division in a thriller.

Winner: Armenia Eagles

Norway Gnomes vs. Amsterdam Mosquitos: The Gnomes are the top team in the division, but the Mosquitos are no slouches. Amsterdam will strike early and claim a lead halfway through the match, but Norway will fight back in the second half. Aryan Tari, who has been the Gnomes best player this year, will channel his inner Carlsen and the Gnomes will etch out a win.

Winner: Norway Gnomes

Semifinals: At this point, the team with the most regular-season points gets to choose their opponent. Since I haven’t predicted each team’s final point total, I’m going to choose the Saint Louis Arch Bishops as the team with the most points this year, meaning that they will get to choose their opponent. They will choose the Norway Gnomes, meaning that The Chengdu Pandas play the Armenia Eagles.

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Norway Gnomes: The Gnomes have never played a team with as much talent at the top as the Arch Bishops have. Caruana and So will both steamroll the Gnomes’ team, and Bloomer and whoever they put at third board won’t have to do much for the Bishops to claim a spot in the championship.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

Armenia Eagles vs. Chengdu Pandas: The Pandas outmatch the Eagles considerably at the top, which gives them a huge edge in the match, but the Eagles are far deeper and have been able to get great chess from the lower boards. The Eagles will be able to neutralize the top boards of Chengdu—Liren and Yangyi will score a combined 5.5—and Armenia will push their advantage on the lower boards to a win.

Winner: Armenia Eagles

Championship:

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Armenia Eagles: This final will feature the 2017 Champions (Arch Bishops) against the 2018 Champions and will be an intense match between two very different teams. Fabi Caruana and Wesley So will have to carry the team against an Armenia team that features Shant Sargysen, who as an IM has played as well as almost any GM in the league this year. The star power of Saint Louis will shine through and lead the Arch Bishops to their second PRO Chess League Championship.

2019 PRO Chess League Champions: Saint Louis Arch Bishops