PRO Chess League Playoff Predictions

2019 PRO Chess League Playoff Predictor

As we approach the midway point in the season, we can already start to see the separation between teams that may compete for a title, teams struggling to make the playoffs, and teams just trying to avoid relegation. We have just finished our first Battle Royale, where teams across the league got a chance to play teams not from their division and prove how good they truly are. This article hopes to accurately predict the 16 teams that will be in the playoffs come season’s end, and then predict who will win the whole 2019 PRO Chess league. There is still plenty of chess to play, and things will undoubtedly look different after the final Battle Royale has been played and the playoffs are determined. Nonetheless, I will use everything I have seen this season to try and figure out how everything will play out.

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Playoff Teams:

Atlantic Division:

1. Saint Louis Arch Bishops: It’s really easy to see why this team will make it. They have the second best player in the world on their team and probably more talent than anyone else in the league.
2. Montreal Chessbrahs: Another very talented team that has fought back from relegation and proved to have found that magic lineup that gives them a chance to beat any team in the league.
3. Webster Windmills: Currently the leading team in the Atlantic, I think that they will drop a couple spots by the end of the season, by I still think they are a definite playoff team.
4. Montclair Sopranos: It was tough to pick between the Sopranos and the Marshalls, but I think this is a more talented roster and Anton Demchenko has been playing some really great chess as of late.

Pacific Division:

1. Chengdu Pandas: As they lead their division now, I see no reason to think they will falter in any way for the rest of the season. They seem like clear title contenders with all the talent they have on their team, so I expect them to dominate their division for the rest of the year.
2. Australia Kangaroos: Standing at 2nd place in the Pacific, this team has been playing very well, thanks to Aleksey Sarana, scoring 15 points in 19 games this year.
3. San Jose Hackers: With Shakhriyar Mamedyarov at the helm of this team, I expect them to be playing playoff chess this season. They are in a very competitive Pacific division, but I expect top-level talents like Mamedyarov to be the difference in this division.
4. Seattle Sluggers: This and the third spot in this division were probably the hardest to predict, just based on how competitive the race for these final two spots are right now with 4 teams clustered around 72 points. With a guy like Hikaru Nakamura—who right now leads the league in points at 15.5 out of 19—on the team, this team gets my vote for the final playoff spot in the Pacific.

Eastern Division:

1. Tbilisi Gentlemen: The league leaders in total points through 4 weeks should have no problem claiming the top spot in an Eastern division they lead by 13 points.
2. Mumbai Movers: With tons of talent and a great position through 4 weeks, the Movers are looking like a title contender already. With the Battle Royale victory, this team proved that they are an absolute force behind a chess board.
3. Armenia Eagles: The other obvious choice to come out of the Eastern Division, the Eagles have been creating separation due to the damage their lower boards have been able to do in addition to the quality they have been able to produce at the top. They are extremely well rounded, and that could really help them in the playoffs.
4. Delhi Dynamite: I considered putting the Wizards in over the Dynamite, but their respective performances in the Battle Royale made the difference; Delhi finished with 17.5, earning 2nd place while the Wizards finished with 12.5, earning 7th place.

Central Division:

1. Norway Gnomes: The undefeated Gnomes finished 4th in the Battle Royale. That’s not bad, but it wasn’t what they were hoping for. But the playoffs are not in Battle Royale Format, so I expect them to be fine.
2. Baden-Baden Snowballs: A team that has been performing consistently well with their top board sitting as one of the lowest top boards in the PRO Chess League. One worry going into the playoffs is that this lack of top-tier talent may catch up with them at some point, but so far, it hasn’t been evident.
3. Barcelona Raptors: With their only loss being a narrow one with the Gnomes, I expect the Raptors to not have too tough of a time getting into the playoffs, especially since their best three players haven’t even played yet.
4. Marseille Migraines: I decided that statistically speaking, at least one team that had a bad start to the season would pick it and make the playoffs. Looking at the Migraines roster, I’m baffled by how they’re in last place right now. With MVL as the top player in the division and a good amount of talent around him, I think that the Migraines will make a push back into the thick of things in the second half of the season and snag that final playoff spot in the Central.

Playoffs: In the playoffs, the 1 seed in every division plays the 4 seed and the 2 plays the 3.  Then the winners play each other. That means that one team from every division is going to make the coveted final four. From there, the team with the most points gets to choose its opponent, and the other two teams face off. Then the winners of the two semifinal matchups get to compete for $20,000. If there is a tie in the first two rounds, then the team with more regular season points with advance. In the semifinals and finals, there will be a tiebreak to determine a winner. You can always check the PRO Chess League Rules for clarification of the playoff structure.

Round 1:

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Montclair Sopranos: The Sopranos will have fought hard to get to this point—in fact, just making it would be an accomplishment—but they will simply be outmatched by the powerful Arch Bishops lineup.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

Montreal Chessbrahs vs. Webster Windmills: This is a tough match to pick, especially considering where these teams were last year. The Chessbrahs were being relegated while the Windmills were sitting at the top of their division. I ultimately think that this match could go either way, but I have confidence in the team who actually beat the Arch Bishops this year.

Winner: Montreal Chessbrahs

Chengdu Pandas vs. Seattle Sluggers: The Pandas have too much top-tier talent to justify them losing in the first round. While I like Seattle’s roster, I think they will be overwhelmed by the Pandas.

Winner: Chengdu Pandas

Australia Kangaroos vs. San Jose Hackers: While Aleksay Sarana has played exceptionally, making him ana strong case for MVP, I think he will struggle against a top-heavy Hackers team. Unless the Kangaroos get a terrific showing from their bottom boards, which they have been able to do this season, I give the Hackers an edge.

Winner: San Jose Hackers

Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Delhi Dynamite: The Gentlemen will have a tougher time than expected against a resilient Dynamite team. The Dynamite had been playing very well to get to this point, but the Gentlemen have had almost the same lineup every week, giving their players tons of reps in the league, giving them the experience they need to pull out a close victory.

Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen

Mumbai Movers vs. Armenia Eagles: With the Movers narrowly edging the Eagles out for the 2nd seed in the division, they knew they could advance with a tie. And with the Movers and Eagles being so evenly matched, the margin of victory will be slim, but I favor the Eagles to barely come out on top.

Winner: Armenia Eagles

Norway Gnomes vs. Marseille Migraines: The Migraines will make a crazy end-of-the-year playoff push to get to this point and their Cinderella story will get tested against a great team. Unfortunately, The Gnomes will take control of the league early and never look back.

Winner: Norway Gnomes

Baden-Baden Snowballs vs Barcelona Raptors: The Snowballs will be pushed to their limit against a strong Raptors team. In fact, the Raptors will use their top players, who have seen limited time this year, and take advantage of the Snowballs lack of superstar players. They have a well-balanced team, but the Raptors will edge out the W.

Winner: Barcelona Raptors

Round 2:

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Montreal Chessbrahs: In the rematch that everyone wants to see, the Chessbrahs will once again go toe-to-toe with the explosive Arch Bishops. This time, however, it will be the Arch Bishops who narrowly win in what might be the match of the year.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

Chengdu Pandas vs. San Jose Hackers: I know I’ve already mentioned this, but the Pandas have such a great roster. The Hackers have relied on top board Mamedyarov to be great for them this year, but when he is just barely outrating his opponents for Chengdu, he will have a harder time. The Pandas will neutralize Mamedyarov and cruise to a victory.

Winner: Chengdu Pandas

Tbilisi Gentlemen vs. Armenia Eagles: The Gentlemen will once again rely on the experience of their players against the Eagles. The Gentlemen will use that perfect lineup that has been working wonders for them, and I think it will get them into the final four.

Winner: Tbilisi Gentlemen

Norway Gnomes vs. Barcelona Raptors: The Gnomes are the top team in the division, but the Raptors remember the match from week three that they barely lost. They will fight all the way until the end, but the Gnomes will once again best the Raptors.

Winner: Norway Gnomes

Semifinals: At this point, the team with the most regular-season points gets to choose their opponent. Since I haven’t predicted each team’s final point total, I’m going to choose the Chengdu Pandas as the team with the most points this year, meaning that they will get to choose their opponent. They will choose the Norway Gnomes, meaning that The Saint Louis Arch Bishops will play the Tbilisi Gentlemen.

Chengdu Pandas vs. Norway Gnomes: Norway has a good lineup, but they are not on the Pandas level. Looking at play this year, it seems like the Pacific and Atlantic division are clearly superior, and I expect that to reign true in this first semifinal matchup.

Winner: Chengdu Pandas

Saint Louis Arch Bishops vs. Tbilisi Gentlemen: The Arch Bishops got by based on top-level play from Caruana and So, while the Gentlemen found a perfect lineup that was balanced and experienced. In the end, the game will be decided by the presence of superstars on the Bishops.

Winner: Saint Louis Arch Bishops

Championship:

Chengdu Pandas vs. Saint Louis Arch Bishops: This final will feature the 2017 Champions (Arch Bishops) against the 2018 runners-up (Pandas) and will be an intense match between superstar-driven teams. On one side, Fabi Caruana and Wesley So, and on the other, Ding Liren and Yu Yangyi. It will come down to round 4, where everyone is playing their board equivalent and, in the end, Chengdu will come out on top.

2019 PRO Chess League Champions: Chengdu Pandas