Move 15...Nxd5

Please try keep all discussion about 15...Nxd5 in this topic.

Treat this as if it was a normal game. Post diagrams, comments, questions, etc. We will be tweaking analysis for the first 12 hours. Feel free to bounce ideas off non-members in the actual game discussions if you like, but be sure to update your analysis here as well. When you feel you have perfected you variations, post them in the Move 15 - Final Variations topic. We will start our unofficial voting for the "Alliance move" at 12 hours so be sure to post your final variations by then. Again, DO NOT VOTE in the actual game until we get our "alliance move".

To me, the Exchange variation -- with two rounds of exchanges on d5 -- is most appealing in terms of the prospects it leaves us with at the end of the suggested variations (in the main forum for move 15).

I'd consider improving the line even further with 17...Qc6 (instead of 17...Nb6, which would be akin to saying "Nc4 was a poor move", which I don't believe is true).

As I'll be going to bed soon, when you tally the votes here in the Alliance, which I hope will happen in the next 8 hours or less, please consider my vote for 15...N:d5.  The alternatives as presented in the main forum for move 15 seem way too passive and defeatist -- and unnecessarily so -- in my opinion.

Here is D3V1L's analysis and opinion on this move:

15... Nxd5 16.Nxd5 Qd8 17.b3 Nb6 18.Nxe7 Qxe7 19.Ba3 Rc6 20.Re2 ( threatens Rd2) this is very active for white...

To D3V1L: Feel free to repost your analysis and I'll delete them from this post.

15...Nxd5 is best IMO

On move 16,  D3V1L/_valentin_/dsarkar's posts and assessments have made the mainline clear for a few moves, (but both sides may vary after move 19 or so). Not so bad for us. No need to add another diagram, as dsarkar has posted the same mainline as far as matters for this move.

D3V1L - I don't think Bg4 stop us for too long as after Rcd8 and Qc6 (to which white would respond with Rd1 and Qd3 to stop the d5 break), as we have Nc7, and the only response to still stop d5 is Bf3, at which point we can play Ne6 and repeat the bishop trade threat.

D3V1L - Could we not just play d5 at some point in there (on move 22 or 23) and free up our position?  With the white bishop on g4, d5 is not well covered by white.

Has anyone analyzed the scenario of just letting Natalija have d5?

This is going to have to be the de facto analysis, because I believe that Nxd5 has already built such a huge lead in the voting that we won't be able to do anything about it.

Exchanging both our Knight and Bishop, while still losing d5 seems to be a mistake. Plus giving up our Queen side Bishop that maintains a defense on f5 could even be a grander miscalculation. Let the King side Knight go as well as d5, but not our Queen side Bishop.

Actually alenkanh, I was thinking about Be7 to Bd8, the Nc4 to Nb6.

 JRoyer,

your line does not work because of knight fork:

15...Nxd5 16.Nxd5 Qd7? 17.b3! (if black knight moves, 18.Nb6 forks the Q and R) black HAS to play 17...Bxd5 18.Qxd5

Nxd5 for Black and then Qd7 for Black will give Black a chance to open the game kingside or queenside - either b5 or h5 is then supported by the queen.

In my opinion 15...Qd8 would be barking up the wrong tree. The queen at d7 will leave the Black queen in a superior attack position (after the move 15...Nxd5).

Dsarkar, instead of 19. c3 white could play 19. Bg4 pinning our knight, and keeping our queen back to defend the knight.

 OK, maybe not much of a pin, but Estragon has a better and more thorough analysis. Thanks. It saves me the trouble. 

Okay dsarkar.

surely, the exchange, its the best way out, considering we havnt mobilized for a particular plan, we can lose some weight to initiate a strategy.

Hmm, that is a worrisome line.  Would playing 17...Na5 be an acceptable way to avoid it, or is our knight on a poor square then?  Aha, on second look white will always have that Bg4 move available, and an interesting response might be f4!?  After a potential exf4 Bxf4 Bxf4 Rxf4 trade, we have claimed a half-open file that can be used to attack their king (i.e. Rcf8). 

Another thought is that with Nxb6 Natalia has lost both knights, which would be the pieces she wants on d5.  True, she does have the bishop pair, but without exd5, she doesn't have the clear diagonals she would need to bring pressure on our king.

cfrench49's messaged me his opinion/analysis on the matter:

To me, the situation is controlled by our opponent with her d5 Knight threatening our Queen. In order to protect her we could move to d8, d7, c6, c5, b6, or a5. I don't see a good move at all with the a5 position. The question I think is what piece do we want to sacrifice and which piece do we we want to hold on to. I've concluded that at this juncture the best move is a Knigt for a Knigt exchange. Now what will she choose to do for move 16? There are three possibilites, pxd5, Nxd5, or Qxd5. The last move of a certainty wont happen. My bet would be pxd5 so that she will keep her c3 Knight.

I think exd5 should be taken into account. Black cannot force an f5 break without solving problems on the queenside.

The b3 idea will open up Bb2 and an eventual c4 when the time is right.

If black tries b5, then the a-file is going to be controlled by white.