Move 18. Conditional Move Thread

I'm just going to copy drakpete's comment from the main forum here...

"Did you see Onischuk's comments on the public area, that he never really considered exd a couple of moves back? Sigh. It must be great to have a GM's mind :-)

18.Rxc8

18.Bc4

18.Bb5

Good idea. One thing I've learnt so far in this vote match is that whatever moves are mentioned at the start of our turn rapidly attract votes and will outweigh any reasoned voting later. So we need to have a good starter set of moves and lines ready for tomorrow. Regards, Peter

Trying to fix my last post-

Here are my thoughts upon first look. I still have not read through the 40 or so pages of comments from the last 3 days, so if I repeat something or a move I suggest has already been refuted, kindly point it out...

I separated the lines by his move so that these will be easier to read and easier to repost once he moves should the need arise

Bb5

Bc4

Rxc8

Ba3?

yeah... i remade them as soon as I saw that... if that pdf is a summary of your analysis, send it to me in a message or paste it... i dont foresee going through the pages of comments from the last few days for while since I'm at work... so I have no idea what you and other have been working on

Hi @VegetableMan sure if you could paste in your most recent complete analysis that would be a great starting point for us. I could try assembling your complete one plus improvements from the game page but they're spread over about 50 comment pages LOL and I risk missing some work or duplicating what you've already done.

Thanks, Peter

Although this is probably irrelevant now, those who did not like the idea of a later Qd5 may have missed possibilities including Qh5 later, where the Q and B would have gained the possibility of exchanging on f3 at some time (preferably after another N and B exchange). But anyway, square would be vacated and our queen active and safe.

I'm not dead against Qb8. This move is one I am happy to play in several lines of the Sicilian, where it can create remote pressure, and the same is probably true here. A good point is we do not have a rook on a8.

VegetableMan - in the line Bb5 Ng4 we come to the same position after h3 Bxf3 Qxf3 Qh2+ Kf1 Nf6 but you characterized the line as dangerous (I assume for white) and I characterized it as seemingly pointless (for us)... what dangers do you see that I am missing?

edit: I should say... I see the possibility of skewer attacks on the back rank, but just dont see them coming to fruition

Gotta be careful with that ...Ng4 line. In many instances he can just play h2-h3, more-or-less forcing us to trade our bishop off. After ...Bxf3 Qxf3 Qh2+ Kf1 and he has Ke2 if he needs it. Only when he has a loose piece on the back rank does ...Qh1 work.

I've been looking at the Ng4 lines to see what happens if White gets in an f3 with a threat of e4, and also to see if Qa8 battery goes anywhere (it doesn't). It is quite hard for White to push e4 without an unfavourable N-B swap provided we keep a R on the d file

18.Bb5 Ng4 19.g3 Rxc1+ 20.Rxc1 Rc8 21.Bc4 Nf6 22.Ne1 guarding g2 and supporting f3  ...Ne4 23.f3 Nd6 24.Bb3 Rxc1 25.Bxc1 Qc7 26.Bd2 Nc6 27.Qd3 White has a good position

18.Bb5 Ng4 19.g3 Qa8 20.Ne1 guarding g2 Nf6 21.f3 a6 22.Bc4 Nc6 to prevent e4 23.Rab1 Na5 Black seems solid

@risto1 I have a lot of confidence in VegetableMan's analysis. And I have lot of confidence in your analysis too! (From the other team game we are playing)

Please, let's keep this forum for discussion based on hard lines of moves.

I personally would really welcome your help.

We are fighting against the clock to come up with a set of lines ready for when Onischuk plays his next move because - as you know - whatever gets said first in the game page will be voted for by many people. That is why Qb8 got voted in, because it was mentioned first. After due consideration I preferred Qd7 which was nowhere in the votes :-(  Although in my view we had 4 moves last turn that were all almost equally playable.

To use our time most efficiently, we really only need to be certain of our next move (obviously this involves creating deep lines of analysis though)... to make use of this principle, it seems like for 2 of his potential moves we are decided

Bc4 - Ng4

Rxc8 - Rxc8

If anyone has a problem with those moves speak up, but I think the majority of time spent analyzing should be on our (so far) 2 options for if Onischuk plays Bb5.

VegetableMan is working on Ng4, and I have said I prefer a6, and will continue to develop that this afternoon/tonight. Unless you have another move to suggest, I suggest you pick Bb5 Ng4 or Bb5 a6 (or both if you have the time) and come up with the best lines/opinions you can

If white will play g3 at some point, we should keep our LSB maybe we can do some damage on that long diagonal. So I think the lines with g3 and Bd5 (after white played Bc4) should be reconsidered.

@VegetableMan yes I agree that's good for Black 24...Bd5 makes all the difference where his B is not on c1

Thought I would try to nitpick some moves here ... The lines with Bxc1 have a side effect, if Bd2 kicks the knight back to d5 then it is not threatened.

Here is a line ...

obviously we aren't allowing the capture of a pawn on the Queen side, again the pawn endgame looks won for white, if all the pieces are exchanged and white can get his king to the a-file.

I would be considering this endgame ... white has pawn majority on the King side, and minority on the Queen side, the light square Bishops are exchanged, Queen and Rooks are exchanged and white operates with a centralized Bishop attacking both sides of the board, while black tried to avoid exchanging Knights, then one knight could be very useful on the King side, but white can have Knight and Bishop attacking the King Side, where he has majority, and the bishop preventing the pawns from advancing on the Queen side.

Ok please don't argue. Vegeman I noticed some of your lines included other peoples analysis after the points were proven to be useful, I admit I am slightly tired and so my line given above isn't very strong, and I too have reservations about whites endgame if we have 2 pawns ... however if the passer is on the b-file then perhaps white can get his king to the center using stronger threats ... and if the blockade is set up on the 4th rank then blacks king has no entry point ... some analysis was done on a sicilian dragon game (Adams vs Jones I think) in the british championships recently that showed how black could have a won endgame with a c-file blockade (king vs passed c-pawn) and a king side majority. The game ended as a draw, perhaps because Jones didn't find the win, however there was extensive analysis by the commentators that suggested a protected passed pawn position for black (we could have somthing like a reflection of this position).

Ok, I looked at the position for some time and I came up with these conclusions:

- white doesn't want to change his bishop for our knight so he'll play 18.Bc4 or 18.Bb5; Bc4 seems more logical since it can retreat to b3 if needed and on b5 it can be kicked with a6;

- the knight on f6 works well with the knight on b4 so we should not move it to g4 (also the concrete variation doesn't give black any advantage after h3);

- I don't like that white can play a5 when he wishes, so maybe we should play a5 ourselves after all; if he plays a5, his rook will be very strong on the a file;

- black queen is standing well on b8; there's nothing for it to do elsewhere; on b8 it is safe and it supports the other pieces; also it can attack from a8;

- white's and black's pieces are gathered on the queenside and I think this is where the game will be decided so why not concentrate our forces on the QS and double our rooks on the c file?; I know it sounds crazy to block our queen like that but, like I said, I don't see any reason for it to be in the center or elsewhere; on b8 it sits just fine;

- first I thought about 18. ... Rc7, then I saw 18. ... Rd7, attracting the white knight to e5; just look at this:

- if we play this game only with normal and predictable moves it will be a dead draw; this type of position is boring enough; if we lose, at least it will have been an interesting game; what do you say?

- oh and I think we should keep our LSB for as long as possible on the board; it keeps the position alive.