Move 25: The Conditional Move Thread

Pogonina's Strategy (please see comment#18 below for diagram)

She wants to play her bishop Bd5 to attack our b-pawn

Rd5 (1st block our queen's line of sight of the e-pawn & supporting e-pawn, making it safe to move B)

Ra4 => Rb4 (target our b-pawn)

Qb3 (to support her B at c4)

Bc4 (target d5)

Rd1 (to make room for the bishop)

Bd5 (attacking the b-pawn - our B cannot defend)

post her rook at Rb6

bring her other rook to Rb4 via a1, a4

win the b-pawn

Analysis so far has centred on 25. Ra5 and 25. Rd5, with a white queenside attack. We have ideas of attacking a5, but achieving Rc5 is not easy. A theme is white preparing Bg4 to attack the squares c8 and d7, and if we play g6 and f5, there are tactical threats with Qb3, which also pressures b7.

A move I would like to suggest in response to Ra4 is b5, which at first glance simplifies things without causing harm.

25. Ra4 b5 26. axb6 leaves us with a target on a6. White can try blockading it on a light square with Ra5, then winning it. If this plan works, we must avoid it. Can we displace the Ra5 with our bishop in time?

If we want to play b5, we must immediately move the a-pawn to a dark square or it will be captured also - sadly we don't have time to do that. So b5 is out of the picture.

My analysis suggests we can get the pawn to a5, but then white plays b4 utilising the pin on the a-file to put us in a nasty bind. Not sure if it loses, yet, but let's see if other choices work first.

eaither b5 or a5

I looked at b5 last night and it didn't look too good. Maybe someone else can examine it to double check?

That's with Rd5 as white's next move.

Kingside attack is a slow process, so we need not worry too much about it. Central breakthrough will no longer be possible for her (as long our bishop is at Be7). Similarly our f5-plan is forever shot. She cannot pile up on the d6-pawn anymore because it sits on black square.

But she can, and will, pile up on the b7-pawn, as it sits on white square

(please see comment#18 for diagram).

We have to see if we can somehow play b5, and move our resulting isolated a-pawn to a white square. One possibility is b5, pawns exchange, and then attacking her b-pawn - not very effective per se, but might prevent her pieces from piling up on our resulting isolated a-pawn.

As the move sequences are really unpredictable to some extent, we will try to just see her next move, and our responding move sequence.

Her ALL possible next moves:

25.Ra4 going to Rb4 next

Can/should we try b5 here? or play Rb8? or Qd7? or Be7?

25.Rd5

 next either of Ra4=>Rb4, Be2 or Qb3

b5 too risky now. Be7 (as discussed), or Rb8

25.Rd3 trying to pile on d5 by Rad1 - ineffective

Can we try b5 here? or Rb8 => b5? or Qd7?

25.Be2

 must be followed by Rd5, or black will try Rd8 and d5

Be7, Rb8, or Qd7?

25.Qb3 (self-explanatory)

Kh8 or Rb8

26.Bg4?!

b5, Rb8 or Be7

b5 seems like a bad move in almost all cases.  

Be2 b5 is just dumb

Rd5 b5 axb6 Qxb6 Rda5

Ra4 b5 axb6 Qxb6 Rda1

b5 looks like a reflex move that does nothing except weaken black.  We should be asking if her threats can actually break through.  Obviously we need to defend, but while she spends tempi building pressure black needs to find or generate a target to counterattack.  Or, at the very least, just sit back and defend until she creates a new weakness.

I propose a strategy of getting the bishop to c7 where it can defend d6 and pressure a5. In order to do that we need to prevent her bishop from targeting d7 thus g6-h5, then Rd7 - Bd8 - c7

From what I can see, material is even, black has two backwards pawns, white has practically the same weaknesses and a little initiative. White's light squared bishop is somewhat enclosed  by the e4 pawn.  The pawn can be freed by f2-f4, or a push to d5 by black.  It doesn't look like black can push d5 anytime soon.  As white's queenside pawn majority advances they can be met by black pawns.

She could try to attack the b7 pawn, but she has her own problems with e4, and black appears to have an adequate number of defenders for b7.  The other weakness is d6 which is guarded efficiently by black's dark squared bishop.

As long as we make sure we have the right number of defenders for her attacks on our weak pawns, we should be okay.  Am I missing something here, this looks drawn to me?

She will pile up on the b7-pawn, and when black's pieces are all tied up protecting it, then switch to the kingside

Rd6 Be6?

Bd1 Qc4 (aiming at the e pawn again)

f3 Qc6 (attempt to get our queen safe)

Qc3 Qd7 or Qe8 (getting worried about queen safety now)

Ba4 Qc8 (you were right to worry)

Ra3 ??? (I cannot think of any good reply to this one)

b4 (about as far as I can go in my head But I'll bet you it is not as far as she can go)

This is just my ideas for moves,she might have different ideas but they probably go somewhere close to this or better.  

I think it will be tricky for black.  We need to get the queen to d7 where she can avoid Be2 Rc4 and also keep out the bishop.  After h3 we do have f5. Qb3 maybe allows Qe6.  I think with accurate play this could be drawn but it's about to get very complicated for black.  If black plays b5 on move 25 then it's probably lost.

I also don't like Rb8.  Because then be2 Ra4-b4 and she can take the a-pawn.

Qd7 looks like the best move and the best place for the queen.

24 Bxg5  Bxg5

25 Rd5  Be7

25...Be7 is the only move that will prevent Black's position from falling apart. 

   There is no way White can capture our b pawn so long as we control the c-file. 

   After just now exchanging dark squared bishops White no longer has the threat of occupying b6 with her bishop.  At present Black still has the threat of Qxc3 preventing White from playing b4.  She can pile up all the heavy pieces she wants against our d6 pawn if she wants to trade a rook for bishop and pawn.  To create a queenside majority that is the swap she would have to make.

I think Qd7 and Rc6 are more flexible and allow black more control than Be7 and Rb8 which are quite passive and exert no counter pressure.

dsarkar, in your line 30. Bxa6 looks to win for white.

savyma's line improves on this with the Rc6 and getting the bishop towards c7.  However, I'd still like to play Qd7 first to prevent any Bg4 maneuvers and save Be7 if needed, otherwhise the bishop could perhaps get to d8 in one move.

savyma,

incorporated your Rc6 and Bd8 ideas in the above diagram in comment#18

jlueke,

thanks for correcting my oversight

buckywitch, white doesn't have to start with Rd5 though in general the startegy remains the same.  Black appears OK for a while especially if we can get Bd8/c7 , make sure the queen gets to d7 early enough and then wait.  After that it may be possible to counter via f5 and white may have to push b4.  At that point there should be new weaknesses and tactics.

The Black bishop if at c7 would interrupt communication between our queen and rooks.  A very bad Idea in my opinion.