Move 38: The Conditional Move

After our 37...Rxb6 white has to move her queen. She has only 2 squares to move the queen: 38.Qa4 and 38.Qa2.

After 38.Qa4 Qc6! she has two options: 39.Qxc6 and 39.Qa2.

After 39.Qxc6 Rxc6 her attack loses steam (39.Qa2 is certainly playable).

So why not 38.Qa2 instead of 39.Qa2?

So most probably her 38th move will be 38.Qa2

We have to plan our move keeping in mind white's possible h4, Bd5, b4, Rf5 (Bxa5?! is now replied by Qa7!).

Moves to consider are:

38...Qb7. Supports our a-pawn, attacks white's b-pawn. 39.b4 is practically forced. Then we can play Kf8 to remove the Bxf7+-with-check threat.However after 40.Bd5! Qd7 (only good move supporting f-pawn as well as preventing 41.h4), then what? More interesting is white's 40.Kg2! which puts black in almost total zugzwang (only king moves available, both detrimental), e.g.: 40...Qxe4? 41.Bd5!.

38...Kf8?! is the most complicated ine requiring further analysis - does not prevent h4 (next move g5), and leads to complications favoting white - unless some promising variation comes up?

38...Qa7?! supports the a-pawn, but with no other threat (except a5, which is stopped by b5 anyway), does not prevent h4. 38...Qa7 39.h4 Rb7! looked effective, but its refutation is 38...Qa7 39.b4! Kf8 (or move queen, which foils purpose of Qa7)(39...Rb7?! 40.Qa4!) 40.h4 Rb7 41.Qd2!!

38...Qd7 is a sly one - directly prevents h4 (h4? Qxg4+), indirectly protects the a-pawn (Bxa6?! Qa7!) so worth consideration.

38...Qe7?! - appears aimless, doesn't really prevent h4 (38...Qe7 39.h4! Bxh4?? 40.Rxf7 getting our queen).

38...Rb8?! 39.h4 Rf8 saves kingside, but gives away the a-pawn without a fight:
38...Rb8 39.h4 Rf8 40.g5 hxg5 41.hxg5 Bxg5 42.Qxa6 giving white a dangerous passed b-pawn plus superior position.

38...Rb7?! This move initially looked playable (Bxa6?! Ra8!)(Qxa6 Rxb2) - is refuted by 39.h4, 40.g5.

Candidate moves for further analysis: Qb7, Kf8, Qd7

I think black's goose is cooked now.  Almost irrespective of black she can play b4 Bd5 Qc4->Qc6 and she can likely pick up the a pawn at will.

I 

Ricardo, what about trying Kf8 h4! line? Why should the WGM play b4??

jlueke,

a-pawn is not her target - she is after bigger fish - h4, g5

Roasted duck is good tool

response to dsarkar

b4 is necesary according to my point of view, please post a diagram in order to analize your line, ok?

Ricardo33,

I don't want to publish premature lines.

I am working on them.

BTW Kf8 is one of the most complicated line (just because both sides have lots of options) - like Pandora's Box - I come up with an apparently good line... soon followed by its refutation!

I wanted to know your line dsarkar  in order to think on it a little, tomorrow I will be out during the day because of a  OTB tournament in my country

dsarkar, won't she just gradually push against the weaknesses on both sides of the board until something gives?

Ricardo, do not take this sample analysis as final!

Well, after Kf8 I considered white's two responses - h4 and Bd5

Rf8 h4 Qb7! looks promising but wide branching of move trees - one line is

38...Kf8

    39.h4 Qb7!

        40.Bd5?! Rxb2 41.Qc4 Rb1+ 42.Kg2 Qb5

        40.b4 Qxe4 41.Bd5 Qxg4+

        40.g5 hxg5 41.hxg5 Qxe4 42.Bd5 Qg6!

    39.Bd5 (stronger than h4) Qd7 40.b4! again puts black into zugzwang!

38...Qb7 39.b4 Kf8 40.Bd5 Qd7 41.Kg2! zugzwang!

38...Qd7

    39.Bd5?! a5!

    39.b4! Qb7 (39...Kf8 40.Bxa6!) 40.Bd5 Qd7 41.Kg2 Kf8 42.Kg3!

jlueke,

you are very right! She is a WGM, not ordinary players like us! Getting a draw will be a miracle! Only things in our favor are adequate time, and many analysts.

Savyma,

please read my edited posting at top.

There was an idea I spotted a long way back, involving 38. ... Qe7 (preparing ... g5 and ... Kg7). This line sacrifices our a-pawn, but activates our bishop and stops white's kingside attack dead. We blockade the white b-pawn on b6.

Perhaps dsarkar forgot this when he only looked at the blunder 39. ... Bxh4? in his analysis.

Savyma,

Qa7, Rb8, Rf8 idea is good:

38...Qa7

    39.h4 Rb7! (you don't have time for 39...Rb8? 40.g5!)

    39.b4 Rb8

        40.h4 Rf8 41.g5 hxg5 42.hxg5 Bxg5

        40.Bxa6 Rb6 41.Bc4 Qxa2 42.Bxa2 (she might win this endgame?)

        40.Qxa6 Qxa6 41.Bxa6 (she might win this endgame?)

    39.Bd5?! a5!

    39.Qa4 Rb8

        40.b4 Qa8!

        40.h4 Rf8 ...

However, I was wondering whether we could find some line which she did not get a favorable endgame...

dsarkar, we know white has a significant edge. The only question is whether we can find an endgame that gives us a draw. The only way to do that is to activate our pieces, and from the position we are in the only way to activate our pieces is to sacrifice a pawn, preferably the weak a-pawn.

The idea of ... Rb8 and ... Rf8 does look a good alternative to ... Qe7, as it also prevents the most dangerous white threat - h4 and g5. Following up with Bd8 would seem a very efficient way to try to stop the b-pawn. We could then consider ... g6, ... Kg7 and ... f6 to free the rook for the defense of the queenside, quite like the line I gave starting with ... Qe7.

If Qe7 won't she just play b4 followed by Qa5 attacking the undefended rook?

Qe7 b4 g5 Qa5 Rb8 Kg7 Qxa6 now she can prepare Rd3

Qe7 b4 Rb8 Qxa6 doesn't look too great either.  The d pawn is next.

I do like the Qa7 line

40.Qxa6 Qxa6 41.Bxa6 (she might win this endgame?)

Then we can play 41...Ra8 42 Bc4 Ra1+ 43. Kg2 Rb1

and we are following Smyslov by having our rook behind her passed pawn.  This looks more drawish to me than the Qe7 line.

Qb7 just gets in the way of the rook and Qd7 doesn't do much for me either

jlueke, your views seem misleading to me. What's the problem with white Qa5? The a-pawn is dead, and we plan to redeploy the rook on f8 to free our bishop any way. We would not play g5 except in response to white h4 - the idea of Qe7 and g5 was simply to prevent white g5 on the next move. The d-pawn would not be lost, because as soon as white takes pressure off f7, the rook (or bishop, I suppose) is free to defend d6.

I missed the possibility of an immediate 38. ... Rb8 and ... Rf8 originally. This also prevents white g5, and frees the bishop. 38. ... Rb8 looks slightly quicker, but I believe after either 38. ... Qe7 or 38. ... Rb8 we can blockade the b-pawn.

There is a big problem with 38. Qa2 Qa7. Using a tempo here allows white's kingside attack to succeed. 39. h4 and how can we prevent g5 and the capture of our f-pawn?

Elroch, won't Rb7 protect the f-pawn?

I do think that white may be better in Qa2 Qa7 Qa4 line.  Qa8 seems wrong allowing Qd7, maybe Ra8 instead of Qa8 in that line