Ivan,
I am missing something. You are suggesting tying down the rook in order to free the bishop? The rook can stop pawns on more squares than the bishop. So I don't get the point. Couldn't we position the rook so that after she takes the a-pawn we can threaten a piece and maybe play ra1+ rb1 so we are at least behind the passer?
That's like 6 tempi now, Qa7 Rb7 Kf8 Bd8 Bb6 and f6. I think there are enough weaknesses for Natalia to thwart such a plan with pressure in the right spots
ivan,
Next moves Qa7, Rb7 are perfectly logical and playable.
Put up a line (not just theory) - looks promising.
Ivan, if she doesn't play Qa4 then yes you can. But since she'll probably play b4 and h4 then she also has tje idea of Rh3. Then the king at least has to stay home, and the bishop might have to stay on that diagonal to prevent g4. She can switch back and forth against weaknesses on both sides.
But, I agree a plan is better than no plan.
The more I look at Ivan's 39...Qa7, the more I like it.
It is certainly playable, e.g.:
38...Qb7
39.b4 Qa7
40.h4 Rb7
41.g5?! hxg5
42.hxg5 Bxg5
So white must play something other than 40.h4...
40.Bd5 Rb8
41.h4 Rf8
42.g5 hxg5
43.hxg5 Bxg5
also looks ok.
40.Bd5 Rb8
41.h4 Rf8
42.b5!! not OK for us! Our position collapses!
[You cannot capture. If you push it then after h4, g5 and pawn exchanges, white will exchange all pieces off at f7 (even sac a piece if needed), and white's passed b-pawn becomes unstoppable.]
It is not enough to have a plan - most GMs/IMs will tell you you cannot stick to a fixed plan - you have to be flexible and view all possible plans, then see which is implementable. Having tube vision focusing on a particular plan ignoring all other, and if that plan does not work we have only loss on our hand.
dsarkar, with the queen on a7 white can also play 40. Qa4 getting the queen into a better spot without the threat of Qc6.
We may have no choice but to let the a pawn fall and move the queen again, Rb8 may have prevented some of this, but it appears to slow now.
jlueke, in response to your important strategic point about tying down the rook to free the bishop, the answer is that with the rook on f8 it can be freed with a move of the g6, Kg7 and f6, leaving no pawns on white squares. Unfortunately, I think Qb7 was a move that delays this plan a little too much. The only point of the last move was if Qxe4 was possible. I thought it might be at one point but the danger to the king on light squares seems to be too much. Hence it can be concluded that Qb7 was a patzer's threat (encouraged by one IM).
My way of thinking about a chess game is neither just seeing what lines are possible from the current position nor sticking to a single plan. I try to identify objectives that might be achieved, which can be big or small, short term or long term, and can change from move to move. In parallel, solid analysis is done based both on what looks plausible as a move sequence, and what might contribute to the objectives. Eg here reactivating our bishop, or exchanging queens are objectives. For white objectives could include creating mating threats or achieving a winnable ending.
For the short term it would be good if people voted on Qa7 or Kf8 sooner. Otherwise people will just vote in Qxe4. Last move there was no real decision until it was too late. Perhaps that's just a reflection of the position.
I think on Qa7 Qa4 Rb7 Bd5 Re7 allows Qc6 one way or another she'll get more pressure with the queen pushing us around.
we are toast!!!
will someone try to refute this line?
39.b4 Qa7
40.Bd5 Rb8
41.h4 Rf8
42.b5!!
can you stop white's resulting passed b-pawn after pieces exchange?
42.b5 a5
43. g5 hxg5
44. hxg5 Bxg5
45. Bxf7+ Qxf7
46. Qxf7+ Rxf7
47. Rxf7 Kxf7
48. b6 Ke7
49. b7
OR
42. b5 Bxh4
43. Rxf7 Rxf7
44. Bxf7+ Kf8
45. bxa6 d5
46. Bg6 Ke7
47. exd5 Kd6
48. Be4 Bd8
49. Qa3+ Kc7
50. Qa5+ Qb6
51. d6+
good point!
39...Qxe4
40.Bxf7+ Kh8
41.Bd5 Qe1+
42.Kg2 e4
43.Re3
43...Qc1 and our queen is trapped; 43...Qd1 44.Bxe4 our queen is again trapped
so what do you want to move next?
I am not quite sure my self. But all know that the position is complicatingly complicated through some complicated defensive response of our side which could be delayed for future complicated strategies of our side.
I have voted for Qb7 since i was intending to attack e4 which blocked our center pawns. Even if Natalia will respond with Bxf7 and we must play Kh8, there is no real threat. after this i see no reason for her to play Bh5 and to some extent Qe6 (which could be dangerous but gains some space for us, nothing that cannot be avoided).
I am for Qxe4.
38...Qb7 has won this round - and Pogonina's reply is 39.b4 99% chance.
39th move candidates are:
Kf8, a5!?, d5!?, Qxe4?!, Qd7, Qe7, Qa7, ...
Request: Please try to come to a consensus before it is our time to vote.
We have 2 days for this move...