bruh i cant see vw posts
[PARTIALLY RECOVERED] [chye3mc] Variant Acceptance Probability Sheet
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aren't you have ihategs?
ihategs and arkansas are blocked
my dad (@testpc1) and my bruh (@pooydiape1) are also locked
lol
Can’t you at least do Qiang-Xiangqi?
Last Updated: 06/01/2025
~93% accuracy as of 06/01/2025
This is a competition with @imchesspro0930 and many other players to see whose instincts are better! Feel free to make your own probability sheet and compete too!
To prevent bias, my variants, variants that the requirements aren't met and troll/plagarised submissions are not added into the tally but will still be included on the list.
Self declined variants do not contribute towards the tally unless the variant has a negative vote according to CGA data.
If a user gets banned and their variants get declined as a result, they do not count.
If a variant gets declined because an under-review variant that uses the same concept get accepted (eg: Heard in Swarm and Zombie Crickets), only the accepted one will count towards the total.
Bugged submissions are removed from the list altogether.
Pending Reply counts as accepted NO MATTER WHAT.
Dark green are submissions I am >80% sure will be accepted.
Green are submissions I am 51 to 80% sure of acceptance.
Yellow are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 26 to 50%.
Orange are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 11 to 25%.
Red are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 1 to 10%.
Dark Red are submissions that the acceptance chance is <1%.
Blue means No CGA data has been recorded yet. However, all variants are immediately given an 'original probability' based on my instincts.
This variant sheet is split up into 4 columns:
Variant Name: Self-explanatory.
Current Probability (based on CGA data): When CGA's play their testing games and cast their votes, that probability section will update.
Reason: A reason why I gave the colour for 'Current Probability' and 'My Instincts'
My Instincts: The prediction that I gave this variant as soon as I heard about it.
Variant Name
CGA Votes:
Reason
My Original Prediction (Based on my instincts)
Qiang-Xiangqi
Unknown
This has a negative vote. Additionally, in my opinion, this is a slight improvement but this is not fun to play in my opinion, plus the walls are blocking the way.
Orange
Arkhangelsk
Unknown
I actually like this variant and it's strategies, I don't see any issues with it. Maybe the alibaba-riders can be replaced with other attacking pieces? Overall, it is good. However, phantom rooks recently got accepted, which could possibly reduce the chance of being accepted too.
Yellow
Well of Fate
Unknown
This is actually a good first variant! However, the spell imbalance is unique but weird but can be worked on, and the board is too big. 2 to 3 revisions of this will likely be accepted.
Red
Serendipity
Unknown
No CGA data yet. However, this is awkward and looks unpleasant, but the issues are fixed. Additionally, I would recommend a smaller board.
Orange
Cavalry Change
Unknown
This sucks, like Eminem.
Red
Covered War
Unknown
No CGA data yet. However, in my opinion, this variant feels weird, and there are so many unneccesary pieces and interlocked pieces, including the royals. Additionally, this is not fun to play at all.
Dark Red
Diminishing Returns
Unknown
No CGA data yet. However, according to my instincts, this definitely is a great attempt to make a 4P crazyhouse variant but WHY ANY CAPTURE? This doesn't feel like it will be accepted but definitely a great (but not perfect) variant.
Yellow
Chak
Unknown
An interesting take on Villagers Chess! However, the promotion is to a king + there are not enough attacking pieces to attack your opponent's pawn. Additionally, in my opinion, the board is too big and I also believe that White has a first move advantage.
Dark Red
Leapers
Unknown
No CGA data. This is not too bad. Actually fun in my opinion, would +1 if I could unless I play more of this and find a major issue.
Yellow
Rickets
Unknown
The crickets don't change much
Red
Contrasting Strategies
Unknown
Unfair Strategies almost got accepted and this is a slight improvement.
Orange
Medusa's Pawns
Unknown
Few minor issues. If declined, the revision is definitely dark-green.
Yellow
Delta's Campmate
Unknown
CGA Data. This is good, however, imo, there are 2 concerns: not enough attacking pieces + it might be a bit similar to Villagers Chess.
Yellow
Cataclysm
Unknown
CGA data. I don’t like because it feels really awkward. No N+ too?
Orange
Knives War
Unknown
CGA data. You can't make a variant by spamming ferzes and sergeants!
Red
The Cellar
Unknown
CGA data. However, this was yellow because I don’t like Fog.
Yellow
Lobotomy Explorers
Unknown
N/A
N/A
Delicate Giant
Unknown
Cataclysm is likely gonna get accepted so this is useless.
Orange
Limited Life
Unknown
Nice concept but needs more work.
Orange
Stereo Jungleness
Unknown
CGA data. "Probability sheet owners beware" - @ChessMasterGS
N/A
Don't Get Caught
Unknown
Firstly, The bots only move around randomly. Secondly, there's minimal player interaction since the focus is mainly on avoiding bots. Thirdly, It's possible to claim a win simply by checkmating the bot, which is extremely easy to do. Finally, YOU CAN DOUBLE STEP OVER THE PROMOTION SQUARE!
Dark Red
8000
Unknown
N/A
N/A
Current Statistics (based on 'my original prediction')
Colour
Accepted
Declined
Dark Green
0
0
Green
0
0
Yellow
1
4
Orange
0
1
Red
0
4
Dark Red
0
5