What USCF otb rating should I be?

I haven't played a lot of USCF tourneys since Covid-19 started so I'm a 800 otb. But according to my chess.com ratings, what do you think should be my UCSF OTB rating? I will set my 2023 and 2024 goal for that! 

Thanks,

@DiamondRain

1300-1500 otb 

You are much stronger than 800 obviously. If you are very young, there is no telling how strong you will be. Some kids improve by over 1000 points a year. If you are an adult and have played chess for a number of years, then your rating should be more or less fixed.  I would guess you are at least 1500 otb.

https://chessgoals.com/rating-comparison/

This article gives rating comparisons between fide, chesscom, uscf, and Lichess

Based on your blitz like 1500 otb but your rapid maybe like 1300-1400 and blitz ratings are very close together so it's kind of hard to judge. When I was around 2000 rapid I was 1500 uscf and 1800 blitz.

You can go to a smaller tournament (preferably a single section one) and play to see what your OTB rating is.  OTB is a different environment from on-line and you may have some initial acclimation pains.  At 800 US Chess uses a high K-factor to quickly adjust ratings and the bonus points for a good result can also kick in more easily.  I've seen kids gain more than 200 rating points from a single four-round tournament in a rating-capped section.  If you are in an open section then the gain can be even greater.

If you let the organizer know about your on-line rating then you might be paired with a higher assigned rating but a tournament-assigned rating is ignored in the US Chess rating programs.

If you win a large rating-based prize then you may be given a rating floor that would make you ineligible to have a rating low enough to qualify again for that prize.

I'm 9, so base on that, can you tell me what u think should be my otb?

lol joke, in a tourny, I went up 300 points lol

to 800

Accoriding to that, I should be around 1750

Then I have a question... what USCF rating should I be? I am currently 15 years-old btw

Should I call you bro or dude, or sir

You should be around 1100 uscf based on ur rapid

lol anything you want good sir

Hmm ok

This question has no right answer it really depends on person to person. For example I am 2000 Rapid here but OTB I am 1600 which is terrible. Anyway those calculation sheets of Online to OTB are incorrect

Interesting the FIDE rating seems very close to the CHESS.COM rating. 

Why the discrepancy then with the USCF rating?

I don't know it with any certainty, but I've always felt like USCF ratings suffer from inbreeding sometimes. 

If you live in Medium City, USA, and, for the most part, everyone you know only plays other people from Medium City, USA, then how much is your rating ever going to match someone who is of similar skill and frequently plays at major tournaments across the country?

I haven't played in an OTB tournament since I was in HS.  I was 1315 then and played mostly scholastic tournaments.  You'd come across plenty of people who were around 1000, but very strong players - they just only ever had the opportunity to play other people who were around 1000 or who had provisional ratings, so their ratings never move.

In my last tournament, I beat a 1001, a 1463, a 1699, and an unrated player playing in his first tournament.  I drew a 1461.  I lost to a 1570.

Those are way higher than my ratings, and I am 1300 uscf. I think you could be 1600 if you played a lot of tournaments.

If you are 10 or 11yrs old  then you could easily hit 2000 USCF if you play  a lot in the next 2 years