Switching to Sicilian, but which Sicilian?

Here was my point:

So let's take a look at the stats:

at the sub-1600 level on lichess, following all the most common moves for black:

2.a3 sicilian leads to completely lost position for black before move 10 (2.a3 Nc6 3.b4 cxd4 4.axb4 Nxb4 5.c3 Nc6 6.d4 d5 7.exd5 Qxd5 8.Na3 e5 9.Nb5)

Morra gambit leads to forced mate on move 9(!) - (2.d4 cxd4 3.c3 dxc3 4.Nxc3 Nc6 5.Nf3 d6 6.Bc4 Nf6 7.e5 dxe5 8.Qxd8 Nxd8 9.Nb5 Kd7)

Wing gambit leads to completely lost position for black by move 10 (2.b4 cxb4 3.a3 bxa3 4.Nxa3 Nc6 5.d4 e6 6.d5 exd5 7.exd5 Ne5 8.d6)

Alapin leads to black hanging a piece on move 7 (2.c3 Nc6 3. d4 cxd4 4.cxd4 e6 5.d5 exd5 6.exd5 Ne5 7.Qe2 d6)

Of course, black could easily avoid these by preparing a line against each of white's tricky sidelines, so, I will reiterate:

Sub 1600 level:

a3: True that the line with 2. ...Nc6 doesn't do well for black but after most of the other common moves black is doing fine. After g6, black is winning most of the time.

Morra Gambit: The most popular move after 1. e4 c5 2. d4 cxd4 is 3. Qxd4 and then black wins most of the time.

Wing Gambit: It doesn't lead to a lost position on move 10. This is the line I found on lichess amateur database.

And black is doing fine or better.

Alapin: On move 7, black is not hanging piece.

This isn't the best for black and white is better here but there is no piece hanging. With d5 and Nf6 lines, black is winning most of the time.

@GYG

Again, your lines are wrong.

@GYG, do you have a master title by any chance (no offense, i saw you are 2800)

No, they aren't.

Why would you assume white plays the most common moves? The whole point I am making is that black will have to play specialists on their own turf, so we have to assume that if white know's their opening's properly and black is playing without theory, then black should expect to lose alot of games before move 15.

But what would people less than half your rating know?

Not yet, I am just an online player for now.

If you play and learn the Sicilian Nimzowitsch, since that is a very uncommon variation, you would be more likely to have a better understanding of the lines then a given opponent.

@GYG

What the hell? If you are judging all the most common moves for black but not the most common moves for white then it doesn't make any sense and it's just unfair.

Then you are just saying "Well if white plays perfectly and black doesn't then black just loses" Like yeah go figure.

That's not the way chess works.

No, I am saying if white plays his pet line, and black plays without theory, black will lose straight out of the opening. Quite simple really.

My initial argument was this (below), and the database strongly supports it.

You said following all the most common moves. Morra is forced mate in move 9, Alapin black loses a piece on move 7.

So this is if white doesn't play the most common moves but instead plays all the most perfect moves whereas black is only playing the most common moves in response to white's perfect moves?

Another heated Sicillian conversation 😋 even the debates about it are sharp

Man, you are not making any sense right now. What do you mean that's not how chess works? Your analysis and judgement is just skewed. If you are going to judge black based on the most common moves then it has to be in response to white's most common moves or that's just totally skewed.

Yes, that is the correct way to learn openings.

No this isn't about the learning of openings. You're talking about judging amateurs in the database based on their most common moves.

It's like you take any random move by black and then the perfect move for white and then say "This is why the Sicilian is so hard for black". Absolute 0 IQ play.

There's nothing really left to say other than to repeat this.

I honestly don't even know which part you disagree with at this point:

You're cherry-picking all the way through this. For instance, in the Mora line, White players (below 1600 as stated) play 7 0-0 twice as often as 7. e5. Yes, e5 is of course a beter move, but if you're going to help White to better moves, then you have to help Black to better moves too (6 ... e6, for instance. Not to mention that most White players at that level play 3. Qxd4

Now watch how, using this techinique I can make White always win after e4 e5 too. In this line, I give the most popular move for Black (U1600) all the way through:

You are skewing it by making it bad play by black vs good play by white instead of considering either most common play by both players or best play by BOTH players. Or your argument that it's harder for black doesn't make any sense. In the most common moves, white is also having difficulties finding the best moves and is often not doing so, so white isn't struggling any less so than black.