Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

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Chess_Pro2
captaintugwash wrote:

Ok so the first problem I see is this. If we play 16. g4, he has Bb4+, and if we play 17. Nc3, now he has Qd7 and we don't have Nf2.

I don't think Bb4+ is a good idea for him though, because that bishop is an important defender. But if we intend to block Bb4+ with Nc3, then we don't have Nf2 to protect the rook.

Yeah I think you're right. 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 Qd7 doesn't look very fun for us because we don't have Nf2. I was worried this would happen. During my analysis I suspected that blocking with the bishop on c3 would be better than blocking with the knight on c3, but I had already made so much analysis with Nc3 already that I just continued doing so. Now pretty much all my analysis starting with 16. g4 Bb4 assumes we play 17. Nc3. Now I need to redo all my analysis, but with 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3. Or we can just hope that having a bishop on c3 instead of a knight wont really make any difference.

Chess_Pro2

But I do think that 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 is good for us. I just haven't looked at 17. Bc3 in particular. But I have looked at 16. g4 Bb4 17. Nc3 in a lot of detail, which hopefully is very similar.

captaintugwash

I'm just looking at blocking with Bc3. If he trades and then plays Qd7, even with Nf2 he has four pieces attacking g4, and we only have three defenders. He's winning that pawn. The knight on f2 also seems overworked, guarding both the rook and e4, while also being directly challenged by a knight capturing on g4, I really don't like our position after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxd3 (or bxc3) Qd7 19. Nf2...

 

captaintugwash

Another good reason to play Rh1 is so we can play Bh3 to take control of this diagonal. 

I don't think we're ready to play g4, I can't seem to make it work after 16... Bb4+ 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2... I think we emerge a pawn down without a sufficient attack to compensate. 

We also have to be careful when pushing g4 that we can handle Nxe4. In the lines we've already looked at, the queen sac works, but if he plays Kg8 before we play g4, that sac won't work, so we'll need to support e4 before pushing g4. 

I think we could have played g4 a move or two back, but now we have to prepare it. There's a danger here we make the mistake of playing it at a bad time because we realise we should have done it earlier. But I think he can handle g4 right now. 

I'm not sure how much more time we can give this. I'm alone with Rh1, as things stand we're playing g4, but I'm concerned it's premature.

captaintugwash

If Rh1, the move I'm most concerned about is Rh8. It complicates many of the lines, including the queen sac, which means we have to keep an eye on e4. He can improve his defence while we prepare g4, perhaps even get his king away from this area of the board.

I'm not sure what to do, but I think g4 is not our best move here. We're definitely better here, his position is very passive. We can make slow progress.

Chess_Pro2

After 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 I would consider 18. bxc3 instead of 18. Qxc3. Having the queen on d2 instead of c3 might be useful in some lines when we sacrifice a pawn on g4 (for example we might be able to play Qh6 in some lines). I looked at this a little bit in post #490, but I only covered a few lines. This is probably the line I've looked at the least.

If Martin dares playing 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 then the move I looked at in the first variation (second paragraph) of #490 is 21. h5 (although 21. Nxg4 Nxg4 22. h5 needs to be considered too, because it might even be better) and I think the only line i covered there was 21...Nxf2, where white gets 5 checks by force and wins.

It might not be easy for us to get 5 checks by force in every line after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18 bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 (but in some lines we do!), but I think we will get more than enough compensation for the sacrificed pawn if he decides to take it. I don't think being down a pawn matters much in 5-check if we can successfully open up the position and expose his king or at least make it easier for us to attack his king. (There's also 18 bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nxe4 which I haven't explicitly looked at (but I've looked at ...Nxe4 in other lines).)

From #489 it seems like 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2 hxg4 18. fxg4 Nexg4 19. h5 is very strong for us. The question is if 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 is also strong. I haven't looked at the latter in detail, but it feels like it should be strong, since the only difference between the 2 above lines is that we have traded dark squared bishops in the latter. It's hard to see why that would make any difference.

Chess_Pro2
Chess_Pro2 wrote:

(There's also 18 bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nxe4 which I haven't explicitly looked at (but I've looked at ...Nxe4 in other lines).)

Forget I said this. e4 isn't even hanging in this line (we have a knight on f2). But perhaps 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4 (possibly followed by 20. h5) needs to be considered.

captaintugwash

18. bxc3 has its own problems, the main one being that we can never play b3 which means c4 is now a permanent weakness. 

"If Martin dares playing 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 then the move I looked at in the first variation (second paragraph) of #490 is 21. h5"

This is a crazy position. Our position is dubious though if he can handle this attack, since he x-rays a3, he's threatening Nxf2 which exposes the rook and attacks e4. I think if he goes for this immediately then we're winning, but he can hold this tension. If he plays Kg8, then what? 

This is a complicated position.

captaintugwash

We also might want to ask if in this position above, our queen is better on c3, because it could be. This puts more pressure on the position for him, since after the h-file opens up he needs to keep an eye on Rh8#

captaintugwash

If our queen is on c3, and he plays Kg8 here, then we can go hxg6, and now his c6 knight is pinned, which means his g4 knight is under attack. So now maybe he has to play Nxf2, but now we have gxf7+ to win back our pawn with check, while completely destroying his kingside. 

edit - oh wait, our rook on h3 is hanging. We have Bf5 as a zwischenzug though, so I think that's ok.

edit 2 - Hmm if Bf5, then Nxe4... he also has a zwischenzug. We'd have to trade queens here., and he'd retain the pawn. 

Like I say, complicated position.

 

captaintugwash

Let's try from above, assuming queen is on c3 (I'll fix for the next board).

(we'll start from move 1 for simplicity)

1... Kg8 2. Nxg4 Nxg4 3. hxg6... 

We threaten checkmate here, he must respond. Only Nc6 or c6 will do.

If Nc6, the g7 and I think that's game over.

And if c6, then Rh8+ is winning.

I think he's missing his bishop a lot more than we're missing ours. 

 

I think g4 might be fine here. I'm satisfied that we can handle Bb4, and I think chess_pro's analysis of 16. g4 Qd7 is sufficient in the sense I didn't see any problems. idk how complete it is though.

I'm going to keep looking at 16. g4 Qd7 17. Nf2... is Martin winning g4 and consolidating? That's what we don't want.

captaintugwash

^ hmm fxg6 also defends against checkmate by giving the king an escape route. I think we can finish him here too.

1... fxg6 2. Qh8+ (1) Kf7 3. Rf3+ (2) Nf6 4. Rxf6+ (3) exf6 5. Qh7+ (4) and it's done.

fxg6 is ok.

Tja_05

I'll analyse this in some detail as well, in a little bit. Just to make sure we aren't missing anything.

Chess_Pro2

You might be right that it's better for us to have a queen on c3 than d2. But I think if we take with the pawn on c3 then the line after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 Qd7 19. Nf2 hxg4 20. fxg4 Nexg4 21. h5 Kg8 still works for us (I haven't checked your ideas yet, they might work too). We can play 22. Nxg4 Nxg4 23. hxh6 and I think we have too many threats for him to stop. We are threatening Rh8+ followed by Qh6 and we are also threatening Bf5 to fork his queen and knight. If he moves his f-pawn then we can just play Be6+ and win his queen.

 

The main problem I have with 16. g4 right now is that after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 he has 19...Nxe4. Now I'm not so sure the queen sac with 20. h5 works. E.g. 20. h5 Nxd2 21. hxg6+ Kg8 22. Bh7+ Kg7. The fact that we exchanged dark squared bishops causes this line to not work it seems, because black now has the g7-square for his king. Or at the very least is far from trivial to find a way to get 5 checks now. I don't think we have enough pieces to throw at his king to justify the queen sac. The queen sac does however work when he doesn't play ...Bb4 (i.e. doesn't exchange dark squared bishops). I didn't expect that the exchange of dark squared bishops (...Bb4) would make such a big difference.

I mean I guess we don't have to sacrifice our queen after 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4. We have sacrificed a pawn now. Maybe we can play 20. Qf4 or something instead of sacrificing the queen and we can play h5 after he moves his knight on e4. It's just a pawn after all and it's 5-check and we are opening up the h-file probably. I don't think we are worse in this position (despite being down a pawn; I think we have enough compensation for it to at least equalize) but It's not super clear whether we are better or not here. And recall that right now (after Martin played 15...b6) we should technically be better already (since we have a bishop for a knight). If we sacrifice a pawn and then struggle to find compensenation for it then that's not so great. If we can open up the position and expose his king a bit then I think the pawn sacrifice is well worth it.

 

It's annoying when you spend many many hours analyzing a move and the one of the last lines you look at refutes the whole move. 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. bxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4 almost refutes 16. g4 if we can't get it to work for us (this is one of the few lines after 16. g4 I haven't looked at yet). I've pretty much only looked at 16. g4 so I don't really have another move "to fall back on" in case 16. g4 fails. I'm not as confident about 16. g4 as I once was.

And yes it's a very complicated position. g4 would have been better on move 14 than it is now. For a long time I thought 16. g4 would still work, even though we're playing it under not so ideal circumstances, but now I'm not so sure anymore.

Tja_05

Ok, I have an idea.

 

16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxc3 Nxe4 19. Qc2.

His knight is attacked and whether or not he moves it we play 20. h5 and break through.

Chess_Pro2

That's probably works for us. He can't play Kg8 or something like that after Qc2 because his knight on e4 is hanging, so he has to deal with that first. I'm guessing we will get a strong initiative in that position. I'll take a look at that in a moment.

Chess_Pro2

After 16. g4 Bb4 17. Bc3 Bxc3 18. Qxc3 hxg4 19. fxg4 Nxe4 20. Qc2 Nf6 21. h5 the g6-pawn is pinned, so we can at least open up the h-file. I don't think we will get 5 checks or anything here, but it might still be good for us.

Tja_05

A sample line: 19... Nf6 (19..f5 20. h5 is absolutely crushing for us) 20. h5 Kg8 21. hxg6 Nxg6 22. Be6 Ne5 23. Qf5 fxe6 24. Qg5+ (dxe6 works here as well) Kf7 25. dxe6+ Ke8 26. Qg7 and there is nothing to be done about the threat of Qxf8+ and Rh8

Tja_05

The move I am looking at now is 20... Kg7.

Tja_05

If the attack won't be strong enough, we always have the option of playing 17.Nc3 instead of Bc3, which might be a better option. I haven't found anything decisive after 20... Kg7, unfortunately.