Martin vs the world analysis thread #4

I really think that we can play Nf3 after h4 d6 if the calculations don’t work

Playing 5. h4 d6 6. h5 seems very risky to me. Maybe I'm just not aggressive enough to play such a move, but I would not wanna just sacrifice a pawn when it's not so clear we get a strong attack after that and we haven't even castled yet. I see no reason for us to be hyper aggressive here when our position is completely fine.

After 5. h4 d6 6. h5 Nxh5 7. g4 Nf6 8. g5 Nfd7 9. Be3 c5 I think we'll get into all sorts of trouble. We can't take on c5 or play d5 because of ...Bxc3+ (black gets a check). Black can put more pressure on d4 and trade a bunch of pieces on d4 (and maybe even win the g5-pawn after that) and trading pieces should be good for the defender (black), since he is up a pawn. Not to mention the second event hasn't been started yet, which makes it even more risky.

The idea for black to move the f6-knight and play ...c5 is something that might happen in other lines too and it's something I think we should watch out for.

Playing 5. h4 d6 6. Be2 seems less risky than 5. h4 d6 6. h5, but still a bit too risky for my taste. But I've only looked at a few lines after 5. h4 d6 6. Be2, and not in much detail, so I can't really tell if 5. h4 is good or not. I used opening explorer a bit for the analysis of this line. One possible continuation is 5. h4 d6 6. Be2 c5 7. d5 (maybe 7. Nf3 is playable here; I haven't looked at it) 7...e6 (see analysis board below for more details) and the position might open up a bit. It feels a bit risky for white, especially considering the second event hasn't been started yet.

With 5. Nf3 it kinda feels like we're deciding not to play h4 (since we can't prepare h4 h5 with Be2 or f3 and g4 anymore if we play Nf3), but that might be fine.

5. Be2 is the move I like the most here. It's very flexible. We still have the option of playing h4 if we think it's a good idea (but at the moment I'm skeptical of this).

I've only briefly looked at a few lines, so a lot of the analysis below is probably wrong. The lines  below are by no means forced.

Change vote to Be2. I will not play Nf3 tho

Ya Be2 is probably best

Two more votes I think we need

I don't understand that hate from Ry for Nf3, it's literally the most commonly played move for white here. I guess Ry is anti-book.

Quick 2000+ db check... top three moves by popularity

Nf3 - 39 / 29 (sample 1626)

Be2 - 37 / 34 (714)

f3 - 35 - 37 (534)

Of the less played moves, Nge2 is the best for white, according to results.

Nge2 - 48 / 26 (138)

If black replies d6 we transpose into a 42 - 30 from a sample of 1158

So it's far from a novelty. Worth considering before we move. I'll take a look later.

Be2 is the best for this event though to prepare h4 ideas

I vote Be2 

I disagree. Having looked at Nge2, I think it helps support future h4 ideas, because the knight is quickly coming to g3 so we can develop the bishop.

The bishop might be better on d3, it isn't clear yet. 

Nge2 might be ok. Just not Nf3

Nf3 is standard and is absolutely fine, I don't know why you hate that move. Because it blocks the bishop control of h5? Are you thinking of giving up the bishop for knight on h5? I don't want to even think about that until the second event has started. The bishop could be much better than the knight.

The problem I have with Nge2 is the db I'm using is nearly at the limit I'm allowed as a free member. I can't study deep enough to see what the basic middlegame ideas are. Obviously with Ng3, we have extra support for h4 h5, but after Martin plays h5, we block g4. I'm also not sure if we should castle queenside. And Nge2 is strong when followed up with f3, which is something we need to think about now.

Nge2 is really strong according to the db I'm using, but I can't pretend to understand why.

I don't think this current event is something we need to think about at the moment, but we do need to be mindful of the impact a second event could have. We need to ensure our king is safe. Martin's development is practically zero, so the king is fine right now, but he'll quickly develop his pieces so we need to keep an eye on our defences.

I vote Be2.  Liked it as soon as it was brought up.

One more vote

I'm taking a break from my games, so I might go quiet for a week  Need a break, chess is starting to feel like a chore rather than a hobby. I get like that sometimes, I'll play poker for a week and then remember how chess isn't nearly as stressful.

I think we need to make a move soon (3 days has already passed). My vote is of course for 5. Be2, since that was the move I liked the most.

Thanks, ry… for the Be2 just now.  I wonder if Martin will immediately call an Event?