Martin vs The world Analysis thread

I have no issues with cxd4.

Right now, I am withdrawing my vote for Bxc1.  (I just have to think about things a little more.)

Again, the trouble with this Drunken Bishops game is that there are no binds in the movement of the DBs, and you can't exchange a DB for a knight.

When I run analyses on the positions that crop up by doing "what ifs", zero advantage always occurs, such that a reduction in lines to play never happens.  All viable moves seem good when you track positions out 3 - 4 moves later.  The possible continuations never whittle down.

It can even be argued that castling offers no advantage whatsoever.

For cxd4, it seems Martin's best continuation is Nxd4, and then he can force the trade down of the queens by later playing Nb5, cutting off our queen's DB protection.

Our DSDB would then have to come over to c5 to cover the white knight forking rooks on c7 if we decide to castle.

It gets pretty scary that many moves out:  white-knuckler continuations.

if Nxd4, we can play Qd7 and play for e5

For the cxd4 line, I've studied Bxd4 for white and our best continuation would be Nc6, and he would probably play Bb3, still preventing our castling.

Then we play Bb4.

JARP, yes, that e5 threat is good and it lines up with…

If Martin castles long, then we play Bxc1 and everyone here will be happy.

Then we castle long, and if needed tuck our King in later.

We will have split his pawns (divide and conquer), his center is severely weakened, our pieces will be working well, and it will be just a matter of time until we pick off our first free pawn of his.

Does what matter?

JARP and I have just detailed how events can proceed if we play the moves we hope to persuade everyone toward.  Along the way, when I was working out ramifications of "if we don't attack aggressively," I found very lacking results for us.  In fact, I found losing positions cropping up.

So, yes, it does really matter.

Martin is in a bit of a bind right now, and we have to keep the pressure on while the timing is right.

He's had a strong pawn center and we're taking the battle to him, trying to split his pawns to make them more vulnerable.

Will it matter?  If we win the game, then yes.

Remember, if we can trade down the DBs and come out a pawn or two ahead, then that usually translates into a win.

I think cxd4 first neutralises the Kxc1 threat as his center will already be broken

I'm voting cxd4

I vote cxd4.

if cxd4 what if white plays DBxd4?

   …    cxd4
Bxd4  Nc6
 Bb3   Bb4

But look it over and see if you see anything else to worry about.

Remember, currently in our favor is that the white Queen is pinned on the white King.  As soon as he castles, we lose this advantage.

yes, black is winning if a pawn ending arises

Played the position of cxd4 a lot today.  Many outcomes were explored.

Martin can wiggle out of things, but the noose grows tighter for him if he plays even the slightest of inaccuracies.  And there are many possible inaccuracies that he may fall prone to.

It is our strongest move, and I found nothing, whatsoever, lacking in its cutting (literally) vehemence.

It is not inaccurate in the slightest.

Strongly urge all involved to vote for cxd4.

Best,

Bob

I vote for cxd4.

Unofficially...

cxd4: 4  (JARP, Bob, gyrados, chas)

Bxc1: ?

No, Ivan is chas.

ry, thanks for playing it.

Current Position (White to Move)

If Martin does not take d4 immediately, by either Nxd4 or Bxd4, he will remain down a pawn as we can counter and protect it.  For example:

O-O-O  Qxb3
  axb3     e5        Note: if Bxb3, we still play e5.

Most likely we will see Nxd4 or Bxd4.

Thank you, JARP, for helping to highlight that you thought cxd4 was best.

Roger, copy that.  Over.

Of course. It is my job to share my opinion on these moves and bring them to the attention of everyone here.

Current Position (Black to Move)

As JARP detailed, a possibly best move for our response is Qd7.  But the other popular response is Bxc1.

Let's look it over, look into the future, and see what the future holds on all outcomes.

Almost certainly, Martin will be castling long given the opportunity.

Btw, with his knight on d4, two moves away is a fork on both our rooks should we castle long.

How he would get his knight there is another story, but it is a real threat that I came across when exploring situations.

Qd7 is not a slam dunk, but it is a very good move… and may be the best move we have.

But, Martin can wiggle out because our Queen can be pinned on our King if we're not careful. (Btw, we're very careful, imho.)

When we play Qd7, all Martin has to do is castle long and he solves all of his problems.

I have found zero ways to get an advantage.  I challenge any of you to find a way to get an advantage.  I'll reply back with what I would do to counter your attacks.

Let's see if someone can come up with a line that defies Martin being able to parry our threats.

ry, e5 might have merit.  I'll look at it tomorrow.

Where I see the game being won is on slight idiosyncrasies that crop up 5 or more moves out.

Things like the 1st or 8th ranks — where the Kings reside — being penetrated by pieces that just happen to line up by what seems like coincidence.

So, we are trying to get several pieces, not just one or two, to all come together at once, by design.

That is what we need to win.

When I design attacks on him, I see my efforts coming up short, and then the tide turns and I'm at a disadvantage.  So, we need to apply fundamental tactics and work them together into an overall strategy.  This would involve blocking pawns to hem in his DBs, getting our pieces onto powerful squares before he does that to us, and dictating the direction of the game so he can't do what he wants to do because we're already doing what we want to do.

Sounds easy… but it's not.