Formula To Estimate a Leaping Piece's Value

Sort:
vickalan
Just for fun, I took HGMuller's chess piece formula and used it to chart the value of a ferz, knight, and hawk (pieces which attack 4, 8, and 16 squares). As background, I searched and found three versions going back to 2010:
 
(1) 8/2010: "...for short-range leapers (e.g. N), a reasonably coherent picture emerged: The value of a piece, that (away from any edge) covers n squares (in an unblockable manner, like for a Knight n=8) is about (30 + 5/8*n)*n (in centiPawn)".
 
(2) 5/2015: "For short-range leapers with N moves the average formula value = 1.05 * (30 + 5/8 * N)*N centiPawn holds reasonably well".
 
(3) 1/2017: "...the average value of pieces with N move targets turned out to be well described by the formula 1.1*N*(30+5/8*N)".
 
First I took the formulas and put them in the same form:
1) piece value = 30.0(N) + 0.625(N)²
2) piece value = 31.5(N) +  0.66(N)²
3) piece value = 33.0(N) +  0.69(N)²
 
Here's the graph with result in centipawns. (Orange green and blue are using formula 1, 2, and 3):
phpgojgb3.png
Comments:
(1) The graphs show the benefit of compound pieces. The value of one piece attacking 16 squares is more than the value of two pieces attacking 8 squares. The gain from 4→8→16 is about one pawn.
(2) Piece values went up a little over time. Are pieces getting stronger, or more experimentation just provided better results?
(3) It's for short-range leapers only. How quickly does this formula deteriorate for leapers that attack at long distances?  Examples are the Alfil-rider (jumps every other square in the bishop's direction) and the huygens (jumps prime numbers of squares to any distance).
 
Regardless, I haven't seen the formula disputed. It seems very useful and deserves a name. How about one of the following:
 
1) "Muller's Equation"
2) "Muller's Formula for Chess Pieces"
3) "Muller's Theorum on the Inter-Dynamic-Relationship of Fairy Chess Pieces on a Checkered Gameboard"
 
Any comments, or the best name for it? Maybe HGMuller will visit and let us know his preferred name for it.happy.png
HGMuller

I guess the prefactor varied depending on which scale I was using for the other pieces (E.g. the 'classical' N=300 or Kaufman N=325).

If I would have to invent a name for the equation I would call it the "Short-range leaper law".

vickalan

Great! that's a good name. Now I also understand the purpose of the "prefactor".

Muller's Short-Range Leaper Law:
 
Value = α[30.0(N) + 0.625(N)²], centipawns
  α = factor based on scale for other pieces
         (1.0: classical, i.e. knight = 300; 1.1: Kaufman, i.e. knight = 325)
  N = squares attacked
 
Now, we need the law for sliding pieces. wink.png
vickalan
I believe Muller's Short Range Leaper Law predicts values for both congested and non-congested situations. It is based on simulated games, so includes a range of densities over the course of a game. This is the same as the system for giving values to standard chess pieces (1,3,3,5,9). But when playing, position and other strategy need to be included in addition to points.
 
I'm sure you are right that some pieces might be weak in some situations, such as a knight not being able to capture a pawn that threatens it. On the other hand, a knight can jump over pawns to attack pieces that might be more valuable than the pawn. So there may be ways to imrove on valuations based on the Short Range Leaper Law. But to do it generally for all types of leapers, and to prove it is more accurate I think will take some very good chess theorists and mathematicians, with a lot of work. My estimate is the Muller Short Range Leaper Law will hold for about a decade until another system is indisputably proven to be more accurate. But I can be wrong.
LXIVC

How short does the range of a piece have to be for this to apply? And what about pieces that are restricted to a fraction of the board, such as the camel?

I assume this is meant to apply to an 8x8 board, but how would it change if the board were bigger?

vickalan
Good questions. I believe the camel is a 1,3 jumper. If that's correct, there's only 4 squares on an 8x8 board where the camel has its full attacking ability. So my guess it is already near the limit of what is a close-range leaper for this formula to be accurate.
 
Also I'm sure the formula won't work for leapers like the Alfil-rider and the Huygens. They have unlimited attacking squares (N = ), so the formula would predict infinite value, but this is of course wrong.
 
For bigger boards, I've seen many people say the value of jumpers goes down (compared to a bishop for instance), because they can't travel across quickly, but I've never seen this actually demonstrated with data.
Any links to forums where this has actually been studied and proven would be appreciated.happy.png
vickalan
I'm not aware of any other formulas to help predict piece values, nor any place that has a concise summary of variant chess piece values. But if you look for info on a single type of piece, you can usually find info (reliable or not) scattered in different places. It's all a big mess of confusing information and that's why I like variant chess games.happy.png
HGMuller

'Short range' here means up to two King steps away. So pieces like Camel are not included. The formula was derived by fitting empirical values measured on an 8x8 board; on such a board a Camel is practically useless. When I tested Camels, they would always get lost without compensation in the end-game, if they survived that long. The only reason they were worth anything is that there was a good chance you could fork two minors with them,and then trade it for one. On larger board this would probably be better. But pieces that have only long leaps have very poor manoeuvrability. On a piece that also has enough short-range moves, the longer leaps might be worth nearly as much as other moves, if the board is big enough to contain most of them.

Baqueano

I've applied this formula for sliders and it seems accurate if you divide by two the number diagonal moves.

Calculating N for a slider:

N=R+R'+R''+...

R=T*c/β

T=number of squares in a same row on a 9x9 board (9x9 for simplicity)

c= number of different colors in a row (1 or 2)

β=total posible square colors in the board (2)

obatined values:

Queen Rook Bishop

1080     640    280

Now let's calculate this for a bishop, a queen and a rook.

N(B)=R*4

R=4*1/2

N(B)=1/2*(4*2)
N(B)=8

B=(30+8*5/8)*8

B=280

N(Q)=(R*+R')*4

R=4*2/2

R'=4*1/2

N(Q)=(4+2)*4

N(Q)=24

Q=(30+24*5/8)*24

Q=1080

N(R)=R*4

R=4*2/2

N(R)=16

R(ook)=(30+16*5/8)*16

R(ook)=640