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Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?

  • #1

    I don't believe Karjakin has much of a chance against Carlsen. I have a feeling he is going to lose by a margin of 2 games in the match. It'll rather lopsided overall.

    In my opinion, Karjakin has a puncher's chance, but no more than this. To catch Carlsen sleeping on at least 2 days (he will lose one game to Carlsen in the best case scenario) and capitalize on the mistakes requires a bit of fortune for Sergey. The rating, head to head matchup and experience in match play all favor Carlsen.


    What are your thoughts? Do you believe Karjakin can do the improbable and outplay Carlsen in 12 or more games?

  • #2

    He's getting crushed. Carlsen is way too good.

  • #3

    no, only naka has a chance t0 bet carlsson in a match

  • #4

    Of course he has a chance.  He got past some of the best players in the world, to reach this chance.  But i would think that Carlsen will win.

  • #5

    This is total crap. All you people are STUPID. Of course Karjakin has a chance! If you think otherwise, go look at Alekhine's score against Capablanca prior to and after that WCC match. Fischer had never beaten Spassky until his WCC match and he lost the 1st game at that.

    Rating gap? What was the rating gap between Kasparov and Kramnik when Kasparov lost?

    Come on people! This question is idiotic.

    Yes, Carlsen is probably going to win but if he doesn't, it won't be the first time an underdog won. Lasker did beat Steinitz. Alekhine did beat Capablanca. Euwe did beat Alekhine.

    If Karjakin shows up with better prep and just has the match of his life, all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day.

  • #6

    he has n0t any chance,  i bet y0u one million dollars.

  • #7

    "all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day."

    No, it takes way, way more than that. That's the point.

  • #8

    In a short match, Karjakin has a very real chance. Peter Leko nearly beat Kramnik by playing for draws both as white and black, and snuck in a single win that almost won the match. 

    Carlsen is a class above Karjakin. If the match were an old style 24 game match, Carlsen would be a prohibitive favorite. But in such a short match, Carlsen may not have enough games to prove his dominance. 

  • #9

    If he starts throwing punches, then yes.

  • #10

    Carlsen knows how to play against drawish players, that's one thing everyone should know about him.

  • #11
    Elubas wrote:

    "all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day."

    No, it takes way, way more than that. That's the point.

    The real question is, how do stupid people get such high chess ratings? Proof that chess ability doesn't correspond with intelligence.

  • #12

    you are wrong

  • #13

    A match is never won before all games are played.

    - that goes for both of them.

    If they stay away from the foolish attemts to revive the

    "cold war" and make this game part of that false world view

    then they start on equal ground, and focused, at least.

    Look foreward to this November event.

  • #14
    Elubas wrote:

    "all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day."

    No, it takes way, way more than that. That's the point.

    I agree with SF.  In a 12-game match, it could easily be decided by one bad day/move for Carlsen and Karjakin just has to make a bunch of draws to hold.

    I hate the 12-game match system as well as the double round robin candidates, but that reflects the problem funding the world championship cycle more than anything else.

  • #15

    "In a short match, Karjakin has a very real chance. Peter Leko nearly beat Kramnik by playing for draws both as white and black, and snuck in a single win that almost won the match"

    Leko won two games but was in the tough situation that he lost the first game and his opponent had draw odds in quite a short match. And one could add to that that the players were very even, on the first rating list after the match they were separated by five Elo points.

  • #16

    "Fischer had never beaten Spassky until his WCC match"

    Yes, but he had a huge lead on the rating list and was the big favourite in the match, neither of which is the case for Karjakin vs Carlsen.

    "Rating gap? What was the rating gap between Kasparov and Kramnik when Kasparov lost?"

    Yes, but Kramnik had been #1 on the rating list while Karjakin never has been top three, and Kramnik scored a career plus against Kasparov while Karjakin doesn't have great results against Carlsen.

    "Yes, Carlsen is probably going to win but if he doesn't, it won't be the first time an underdog won. Lasker did beat Steinitz"

    Lasker was 32 years younger than Steinitz and had played well before the match though.

    "Alekhine did beat Capablanca. Euwe did beat Alekhine"

    Those were huge upsets indeed, but most rating systems see Alekhine and Euwe as clear top three players at the time of their surprise wins, while Karjakin may not be top ten at the time of the match, or be it with a very small margin.

  • #17

    Karjakin recieving advice from Anand on how to lose to Carlsen

     

     

    (It's a joke)

  • #18
    I'll be looking to see what Karjakin brings against Carlsen. I'm hoping Karjakin brings a different strategy than Anand did and I'm expecting a close match.
  • #19

    I agree with you.I don't think Karjakin will fare any better than Anand tbh.Carlsen is just that good.

  • #20

    Yes, Karjakin has a chance to beat Carlsen in a match, this will be Magnus toughs challenge. Its ridiculous 12 games limit for WCM, if Fischer complain about 24 games, 12 games is way too short for a title match.

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