HUGE unexpected rating drop (2100-1700)

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Nolinlc

So after getting back into chess a few months ago, I managed to get my way back up to around where my peak was (1700) and began to climb up as expected as I was continuing sot study and a lot mroe like that. I managed to get all the way up to 2098 (so close!) but then suddenly, it was literally like the power went out in my brain and I yet again dropped back to 1700-1800 level in pretty much like 3 days. I'm honestly not quite sure if ive ever a seen a 400 rating drop happen to anyone before. And keep in mind that the buildup to 2000 was over several months, so its not like it wasn't an accurate rating for me.

I figured that maybe my issue was that I needed a short break from chess for a few days, but that still didn't seem to fix my issue. Any possible explanations or advice?

Also its my first time using forums.

kingofgames333

You know whats crazy? The same thing happened to me lol, I got to like 970 then I've lost the last like 8 games and im down to 900 now

PartofShiv
Nolinlc wrote:

So after getting back into chess a few months ago, I managed to get my way back up to around where my peak was (1700) and began to climb up as expected as I was continuing sot study and a lot mroe like that. I managed to get all the way up to 2098 (so close!) but then suddenly, it was literally like the power went out in my brain and I yet again dropped back to 1700-1800 level in pretty much like 3 days. I'm honestly not quite sure if ive ever a seen a 400 rating drop happen to anyone before. And keep in mind that the buildup to 2000 was over several months, so its not like it wasn't an accurate rating for me.

I figured that maybe my issue was that I needed a short break from chess for a few days, but that still didn't seem to fix my issue. Any possible explanations or advice?

Also its my first time using forums.

Woah ! That's indeed huge. (I too lost around -200 but that's in bullet so pretty normal I guess)

I guess what happened with you was due to a mixture of many variables working together. For example - burnout, Stress from nearing a Milestone (2100) which created a subconscious pressure on you and hence maybe you started playing to “not lose” instead of playing to win which affected your decision-making and made you second-guess, play passively, or time-pressure yourself, leading to loses... Or it could also be due to tilt-queuing games emotionally. (first rating drop ~ frustration ~ rushed games ~ more losses)

And finally, change in your opponent pool after you were continuously growing, might have led to you matching with stronger players and then losing rapidly in your tilt stage which also could have contributed to your losses...

I think, you yourself would understand the best what would help you to get out of this situation as others may recommend general tips but not personal ones that will suit you the best.. But still, I recommend you to not jump back into rating games. Do puzzle rush, puzzle battle, puzzle race, endgames, or unrated games only. When you return, play 1–2 slow games per day max, and analyze them deeply. Don't rush. Take time to reflect. That's all.

ChessMasteryOfficial

Most 400-point collapses come not from being “worse” — but from emotional tilt, subtle or not.

ChessconnectDGTTest

@nolinlc, what happened to you is absolutely normal -- what I mean is that you should expect what happened, as I can imagine you played LOTS of games in a very short time.

In simple terms, consider the following:

1- It is absolutely and totally normal to have fluctuations in how you play chess, even from day to day. One day you can find yourself play as a magician, the following day you can play much worse games.
2- Given it is normal and natural, you better stop wasting time in "understanding why" and "trying to fix it". You'd be better in employing a simple method to limit the negative effects of what IS happening and will always (pretty much always) happen:
You need to set for yourself a maximum number of games you're going to play on every given day or - if that it's too difficult - the maximum number of games you're going to play one-after-the-other. In this latter case, you can play some other games, but not before 3 or 4 hours have passed. The number, in my very personal opinion, shall never exceed 5.
1- On some days, you'll play great, and after the 5 games you'll enjoy a well deserved rating increase.
2- On some other days, you'll play disastrously, and you'll enjoy the fact that you saved (part of) your rating from a disastrous decline. On the following days, the wheel will turn again, and you will probably re-gain (all or part of) your lost rating.
HTH
AG

Abtectous
Rating = approximate skill level
KeSetoKaiba

I agree with @ChessMasteryOfficial

Rating drops as large as 400 points isn't unheard of, but it's almost certainly the result of some forms of tilt. Getting angry and screaming, or breaking things isn't the only way someone could tilt. Check out my preventing tilt playlist:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTXwNMbhsy4uh2e7swLXpYA-7_2AXTeF3

The second video in that playlist might be especially insightful for you, but it's probably best to still view them in the order I listed them, since the stop-loss concept I mention in the first video is important to prevent drops like 400 rating point losses.

Nolinlc

Thanks for all the support. I will say that im not exactly the type of person to break something and get angry lol but like all people it does get to me a bit.

I am trying to limit how much chess I play everyday, and I don't quite even find it a big deal if I dont play any chess in a day. I think that the only way to improve in not just chess but anything is to enjoy what youre doing, and while Im hating it Im definitely not enjoying it with my current state of mind, so hopefully Ill get back.

JHACKIL

Take a break for a few days. Also, if you start losing games, do not continue to play! Take a break and play chess the next day. I'm sure that you can regain the rating. Good luck!

towbat

Remember, just because your rating climbs to 2100 does not mean you are a 2100-level player. I know that seems illogical, but hear me out: The 2100 rating was the result of a localized set of games you played where you defeated other players rated higher than you. It does not take into account the mistakes they made, the openings they used, the openings you used, the level to which they were prepared to meet your openings, the level to which you were prepared to meet theirs, etc. In other words, your rise to 2100 was, potentially at least, the result of a statistical cluster wherein you were paired at random with a series of players who, for the most part, didn't play as well as you did in those particular games - and this truth is especially magnified if you were playing blitz.

It sounds like what is happening is that you are having a "rating correction." Your variance is returning to the expected value, so to speak. The way you know that you are really a 2100 player is that your rating remains at or about 2100 over a statistically significant number of trials ( or games, in the case of chess specifically.)

I'm sure it's quite an emotional ride and I'm sorry for the anxiety you are experiencing. My advice would simply be to stop looking at the rating as a measurement of yourself as a chess player. Your metric should be: Am I constantly and effectively working at improving in a reliable and consistent way? If the answer to that question is objectively "Yes", then you are on the path that is going to one day deliver you to a high rating level that becomes stable. In the meantime, your actual ability is not going to be accurately reflected in the peaks and valleys of your rating. It's probably somewhere above 1700 but it's almost certainly below 2100. Keep working at it. Don't worry about it. Unless you are so good at chess that you are getting paid to play it, your rating only determines what strength of players you get matched with for your games.

I hope this helps put it right in your head. I know it's painful. We are humans and, as such, we are saddled with all the same human frailties. Call a friend and go out and enjoy something together in the nice weather. Tell them your problem. They'll let you know it will be alright.

mikewier

I agree with Towbat. Here are some points that are useful to remember. 

1. Bullet, blitz, and rapid ratings on chess.com are unreliable. Ratings vacillate widely, often by 100 points or more.

2. Ratings should be thought of as a measure of performance and not as a measure of skill. A person’s chess skill tends to be rather stable. Howerver, performance is affected by many factors—fatigue, distractions, motivation, WiFi connectivity, and many others. Changes in rating are often due to changes in these conditions and so do not reflect a change in ability.

3. A rating that is above average is actually more likely to be an overrating than an underrating. Consider a player with a rating of 2100. It is possible that the rating is accurate, that it is an overrating, or that it is an underrating. Now consider the number of people whose skill level is in the range of 2000-2200. If people’s ratings vary by an amount up to 100 points, then there are many more people in the 2000-2100 range who are overrated as 2100 then there are in the 2100-2200 range who are underrated as 2100.

This last point also applies, but in the opposite direction, for ratings that are below average.

MaestroDelAjedrez2025
mikewier wrote:

I agree with Towbat. Here are some points that are useful to remember.

1. Bullet, blitz, and rapid ratings on chess.com are unreliable. Ratings vacillate widely, often by 100 points or more.

2. Ratings should be thought of as a measure of performance and not as a measure of skill. A person’s chess skill tends to be rather stable. Howerver, performance is affected by many factors—fatigue, distractions, motivation, WiFi connectivity, and many others. Changes in rating are often due to changes in these conditions and so do not reflect a change in ability.

3. A rating that is above average is actually more likely to be an overrating than an underrating. Consider a player with a rating of 2100. It is possible that the rating is accurate, that it is an overrating, or that it is an underrating. Now consider the number of people whose skill level is in the range of 2000-2200. If people’s ratings vary by an amount up to 100 points, then there are many more people in the 2000-2100 range who are overrated as 2100 then there are in the 2100-2200 range who are underrated as 2100.

This last point also applies, but in the opposite direction, for ratings that are below average.

I wish I was as advanced as you, Mike

Quite_Playable_1

My blitz and rapid drop if I do not play bullet for a month. If I play bullet for seven hours a day for 10 days, for example. My blitz and rapid rise. There is something about bullets that makes my brain turn on. Solving tactics and studying strategy every day do not work for me.

sicilianswiftie
Quite_Playable_1 wrote:

My blitz and rapid drop if I do not play bullet for a month. If I play bullet for seven hours a day for 10 days, for example. My blitz and rapid rise. There is something about bullets that makes my brain turn on. Solving tactics and studying strategy every day do not work for me.

omg u started playing blitz!!!

sicilianswiftie

what changed ur mind abt it?

Quite_Playable_1
sicilianswiftie wrote:

what changed ur mind abt it?

I started reading the Yusupov series. It is super duper, very tiring. I do not have energy to play hours of bullet anymore. I do not know if I will quit the Yuuspov stuff or should I continue. Giving me fatigue. I am at Chapter 10, Orange 1.

Quite_Playable_1

My blitz should be better if I do not read chess books. Bullet and memorizing openings is better for me.

sicilianswiftie
Quite_Playable_1 wrote:

My blitz should be better if I do not read chess books. Bullet and memorizing openings is better for me.

Do you play otb? are you USCF or FIDE rated?

sicilianswiftie
sicilianswiftie wrote:
Quite_Playable_1 wrote:

My blitz should be better if I do not read chess books. Bullet and memorizing openings is better for me.

Do you play otb? are you USCF or FIDE rated?

have you watched the opening videos on chess.com? they are actually pretty good, I have them on my hard drive.

Quite_Playable_1

I do not know; I am confused. I am a little human being; they always advise me to study chess. But it does not feel good to me.