Do you think it will happen again? Or will the underdog triumph?
Leko vs Kramnik. Karjakin vs Carlsen. Will the same happen?
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Nov 21, 2016
0
#3
Ok, for those who don't know, after game 8 Leko took the lead 4.5-3.5, just to lose the last game. The match ended 6-6, and Kramnik kept the title. Now the tie-break rules are different and they would have to play rapid and blitz.
Do you think the last game will be decisive?
Didn't Leko just recently drop below 2700? Personally, I doubt that we'll ever see a Leko vs. Kramnik WCC again. But of course that's just my opinion.
Nov 21, 2016
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#5
macer75 wrote:
Didn't Leko just recently drop below 2700? Personally, I doubt that we'll ever see a Leko vs. Kramnik WCC again. But of course that's just my opinion.
I don't know if you are joking or not, but it you are serious then you may have been confused by the title of the thread. I edited it to make it clearer.
Isn't it amazing? This is probably my first serious thread. Expect it to be the last too.
Nov 21, 2016
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#6
stuzzicadenti wrote:
Carlsen-Karjakin is different from Kramnik-Leko in that this match does not have draw odds. In the 2004 match Leko and Kramnik were tied on points, but Kramnik kept his title because he was the champion going into the match. But here if the score is tied then it would go into tiebreaks (rapid games).
I know that the tie-breaking rules are different (in fact I said it in post 3), what I'm saying is maybe the last game will be decisive, just like in 2004
If it happens, there's a strong chance the same will happen. I'm 90% sure MC would win tie-breaks, either in rapids or the first set of blitz games.
kingofshedinjas wrote:
macer75 wrote:
Didn't Leko just recently drop below 2700? Personally, I doubt that we'll ever see a Leko vs. Kramnik WCC again. But of course that's just my opinion.
I don't know if you are joking or not, but it you are serious then you may have been confused by the title of the thread. I edited it to make it clearer.
Isn't it amazing? This is probably my first serious thread. Expect it to be the last
Ok, seriously though... no, I think. Karjakin has demonstrated in the earlier games of this match that he can really defend when he needs to, and I think if it comes down to the last game he will be able to hold. But there is a greater possibility, in my opinion, that this could be Anand-Gelfand 2.0 (Carlsen comes back to win the next game). If that doesn't happen, I'm going to say that it will probably end up being Kasparov-Kramnik 2.0 (underdog takes down heavy favorite with no losses). And if Karjakin does end up winning, the next Candidates' Tournament is going to absolutely insane.
"I'm 90% sure MC would win tie-breaks, either in rapids or the first set of blitz games."
So many persons were 90% sure that he would easily win the match during the first 12 games.
Nov 21, 2016
0
#10
Well, there are still 4 classical games to play. But if we have learnt something about the previous 7 games, it is that Karjakin knows how to draw. It will be interesting, I expect Carlsen to be more aggressive. He will have to take risks if he wants to win.
Nov 22, 2016
0
#11
macer75 wrote:
kingofshedinjas wrote:
macer75 wrote:
Didn't Leko just recently drop below 2700? Personally, I doubt that we'll ever see a Leko vs. Kramnik WCC again. But of course that's just my opinion.
I don't know if you are joking or not, but it you are serious then you may have been confused by the title of the thread. I edited it to make it clearer.
Isn't it amazing? This is probably my first serious thread. Expect it to be the last
Ok, seriously though... no, I think. Karjakin has demonstrated in the earlier games of this match that he can really defend when he needs to, and I think if it comes down to the last game he will be able to hold. But there is a greater possibility, in my opinion, that this could be Anand-Gelfand 2.0 (Carlsen comes back to win the next game). If that doesn't happen, I'm going to say that it will probably end up being Kasparov-Kramnik 2.0 (underdog takes down heavy favorite with no losses). And if Karjakin does end up winning, the next Candidates' Tournament is going to absolutely insane.
Let's see...if Carlsen loses now, in the next Candidates we will have him, and some of the following: Caruana, Aronian, Kramnik (I hope he doesn't retire), Anand, Nakamura, So, MVL, Giri...Even classifying for the event will be a difficult task. A ridiculously strong event.
^This would be awesome! Hopefully another Kramnik - Carlsen duel! 
"There are certain paralelisms between both matches in my opinion. There's a clear favourite"
Kramnik and Leko were quite even, only 5 Elo separated them in the autumn 2004 and the drawn outcome was no surprise. Carlsen on the other hand has been very clear #1 for a long time while Karjakin never has been top three and spent the whole last year outside the top ten, so I think this has been much more surprising...
Nov 22, 2016
0
#14
fabelhaft wrote:
"There are certain paralelisms between both matches in my opinion. There's a clear favourite"
Kramnik and Leko were quite even, only 5 Elo separated them in the autumn 2004 and the drawn outcome was no surprise. Carlsen on the other hand has been very clear #1 for a long time while Karjakin never has been top three and spent the whole last year outside the top ten, so I think this has been much more surprising...
Before playing the match, Kramnik's rating was 2770 and Leko's was 2741 (not 5 points as you said) It's clearly a smaller rating difference than the one Carlsen has over Karjakin, but the fact that Kramnik had beaten Kasparov to become world champion made him, in my opinion, clear favourite.
"Before playing the match, Kramnik's rating was 2770 and Leko's was 2741 (not 5 points as you said)"
It was 5 Elo on the January 2005 list, and that included the games played up until and including October, when the match finished. During 2005 Leko passed Kramnik rather clearly on the rating list, but there were no live rating lists back then, and the FIDE lists were slower to be updated, so it took longer for the numbers to reflect the latest results of the players.
"The January list already included rating changes caused by the match"
Yes, and that was drawn so little changed there. When I wrote that the difference between the two was 5 Elo in the autumn I meant at the time around the match, not the summer rating list that was slightly dated already when it was published.
Well, in the first 8 games, Carlsen had two real winning chances, and missed both of them. Karjakin also had two real wining chances, and capitalized on one of them. If the future continues to be like the past, then in the next four games, I bet we'll see Carlsen get one more game with winning chances and Karjakin will get one more game with winning chances. I think the odds of Carlsen scoring and Karjakin not scoring are slim. Maybe 25% chance at most. But I could be way off base. After Carlsen lost to Naka in the Bilbao masters, he went on to win three games in a row. I guess we'll see if Carlsen has the heart of a champion or if he's human, all too human.
There are certain paralelisms between both matches in my opinion. There's a clear favourite, and then the underdog takes an advantage in game 8, putting a lot of pressure on the favourite.