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2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Official Discussion Thread
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Mar 24, 2026
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#23
Ike_Miller wrote:
Absolutely NOT going to be Giri.
Giri blunders too much in critical positions. In that one critical Rg1 Nc6 g4 g6 Najdorf in Tatasteel, Giri could have initiated an almost engine-like sacrifice which would have led to a wild material imbalance and a 2 result game (black slightly better, white fighting for the draw) but instead he chickened out and drew with a safe line.
In another game over there when he was black, he had a nice advantage if he had executed the proper move order, but instead he let white neutralize it, then Giri failed to find the only move to hold, and lost.
It's going to be Fabi, Hikaru or Sindarov, but Wei Yi and Pragg also have reasonable chances.
we must hope
Mar 24, 2026
0
#24
My canidates 2026- Win Probabilities:
Caruana 23.1%
Nakamura 20.6%
Yi 14.7%
Praggnahanda 13.9%
Giri 13.7%
Sindarov 8%
Esipenko 3.1%
Bluebaum 2.9%
Caruana 23.1%
Nakamura 20.6%
Yi 14.7%
Praggnahanda 13.9%
Giri 13.7%
Sindarov 8%
Esipenko 3.1%
Bluebaum 2.9%
Mar 24, 2026
0
#25
Sindarov seems to me like a real dark horse. I don't think it's impossible for him to win the entire event.
Alternatively, he could end low down in the bottom half. He's probably one of the least predictable.
Caruana is on form the favourite, the Dark Horce is Giri people forget he was once ranked, though a while back world No.3 he had couple of slack years where he seemed to Draw a lot of games however his last candidates qualification he showed great fighting spirit in grinding out the wins, if he can show the same form who knows!!? Hikaru though the highest rated one has to put him at No.3 based on factors he as played little high level O.T B tournaments but he is always Dangerous! And Prag on form is 2nd favourite!
Mar 26, 2026
0
#29
Wei Yi and Bluebaum will fight it out with Sindarov, one of them wins for sure
Pragg
Fabi is playing really aggressive in the opening, throwing the whole kitchen sink at Hikaru - but so far, Hikaru has been holding the ship steady. Tense first game.
Mar 30, 2026
0
#37
Sindarov-Gukesh will not be hard to predict, tbh if Sindarov wins today he will win candidates
Hi
Ok