A 3000 could easily beat a 2000, but could a 4000 easily beat a 3000?

Sort:
EndgameEnthusiast2357
Elroch wrote:
SmyslovFan wrote:

Just to point out the obvious, which has probably been pointed out before in the previous 165 posts:

There is no such thing as a 4000 rating in chess, and there never will be. Chess has a wide draw margin and the best possible rating is probably somewhat below 3600. That is, a current 2800 player could draw at least one game out of fifty against God himself. Or, a perfect engine, whichever you're more likely to have faith in.

Many things that are "obvious" are false. This could easily be one of them.

The first serious attempt to build an AI to play chess achieved a 64% score against an engine which is the consequence of many decades of development. In achieving this score it didn't lose at all. What you are missing is the fact that what matters is the plus score it achieved, not that it managed to do so while avoiding even a single loss.

This does NOT imply that there can be no stronger chess player. What it strongly suggests is that for future matches between top players the trend will continue that the stronger player will not lose very much, if at all. This is NOT the same as saying that the stronger player will not WIN at all.

Surely this should be clear after multiple posts on the point?

I don't understand this point of no rating being higher than 4000 either. Chess engines are already 3500-3600 and they make TONS of mistakes, can't solve puzzles like the one I posted, and do lose sometimes. I could easily see the perfect chess player being rated 1,000,000 or higher.

SmyslovFan

Yes, @EndgameStudier, your confusion lies in your lack of understanding of chess. Chess isn't just a draw, it has a very wide draw margin. A player can be up two knights and still not have enough to force the win. 

Take a look at the chess games of the best players. They all have individual games that are close to perfect, and that's with opponents trying to take them out of their preparation and into unknown territory. A 2800 will draw at least 1 in 50 games against a perfect opponent, especially if half of those games are with White.

EndgameEnthusiast2357

Chess Engines cannot even solve this 15 move problem! So much for 3500 LMAO. A 2200 could prolly solve this in 5 minutes. If a chess engines can calculate millions of positions, don't you think this 15 move line would have came up?

EndgameEnthusiast2357
SmyslovFan wrote:

Yes, @EndgameStudier, your confusion lies in your lack of understanding of chess. Chess isn't just a draw, it has a very wide draw margin. A player can be up two knights and still not have enough to force the win. 

Take a look at the chess games of the best players. They all have individual games that are close to perfect, and that's with opponents trying to take them out of their preparation and into unknown territory. A 2800 will draw at least 1 in 50 games against a perfect opponent, especially if half of those games are with White.

I was talking a PERFECTLY PLAYED game, where both players make the best move every move until the game ends. Most assume chess is probably a draw, but we don't know this for sure. Although having an engine play another engine with alternating colors each time would solve this problem.

SmyslovFan

@Endgamestudier, I strongly suggest you study more endgames. You will find that there are more ways to draw a game than are dreamed of in your philosophy. 

EndgameEnthusiast2357
SmyslovFan wrote:

@Endgamestudier, I strongly suggest you study more endgames. You will find that there are more ways to draw a game than are dreamed of in your philosophy. 

LoL I do study endgames, but NO ONE knows if chess is a theoretically drawn game. Checkers was proved to be a draw using 11 supercomputers over an 18 year period! In chess, there are more possible games than their are atoms in the universe. If you assigned one atom per chess game, you would need over 10^50 UNIVERSES! Chess has not yet been proven to be draw, but maybe when they come out with quantum computers!

JustOneUSer
#181

@endgamestudier.

Simple.

I don't think that means what you think it means.
EndgameEnthusiast2357
VicountVonJames wrote:
#181

@endgamestudier.

Simple.

I don't think that means what you think it means.

The logic behind it is simple. Keep triangulating the king around until black runs out of pawn moves and black is forced to move a knight and get mated. It's really only a 5 move puzzle. Think of it this way, if the king was a thousand squares away instead of only a few, would the puzzle be harder?

JustOneUSer
#185

@endgameStudier

1,000,000 or higher?!?!??

I disagree. Chess engines can solve something like 90% of chess positions at rating 3500. Maybe more.

The puzzle you posted is known about simply because it cannot be solved by an engine. That is why it is special. If engines were as bad as you seem to think they are a puzzle would not be noteworthy for being unsolvable.

I also ask when was the last time an engine tried that puzzle? What rating did that engine have? Has that alphachesszero engine tried it? Could it solve it given enough time? Are you sure this puzzle was tested in every engine?

You seem to think that puzzle would require an engine 30 times stronger then 3500 to solve it...

I mean if these engines can solve the very very very vast majority of all chess games and chess positions and are still learning and Improving, rated 3500, I highly doubt it will take an engine neatly 300 times stronger then the current (1,000,000 divided by 3500) ones to crack the rest of chess puzzles.
JustOneUSer
#192

True endgame, true. My mistake.
EndgameEnthusiast2357
VicountVonJames wrote:
#185

@endgameStudier

1,000,000 or higher?!?!??

I disagree. Chess engines can solve something like 90% of chess positions at rating 3500. Maybe more.

The puzzle you posted is known about simply because it cannot be solved by an engine. That is why it is special. If engines were as bad as you seem to think they are a puzzle would not be noteworthy for being unsolvable.

I also ask when was the last time an engine tried that puzzle? What rating did that engine have? Has that alphachesszero engine tried it? Could it solve it given enough time? Are you sure this puzzle was tested in every engine?

You seem to think that puzzle would require an engine 30 times stronger then 3500 to solve it...

I mean if these engines can solve the very very very vast majority of all chess games and chess positions and are still learning and Improving, rated 3500, I highly doubt it will take an engine neatly 300 times stronger then the current (1,000,000 divided by 3500) ones to crack the rest of chess puzzles.

If a chess engine couldn't even solve that 15 move one I posted after, how strong does it have to be to solve a 70 move one? I put that into stockfish 9, which is rated 3390, and gave it 5 minutes to analyze, NOTHING. It doesn't even make sense, if it calculates million sof moves/second, even it didn't understand the "logic", it would have came across that 15 move line eventually.

EndgameEnthusiast2357

Another question I have is when engines have multiple moves to checkmate, how does it decide which one? Like this position:

White has exactly 100 ways to checkmate, which move would the engine pick. I'm guessing Qxh8.

DjonniDerevnja
EndgameStudier wrote:
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
Brixed wrote:
EndgameStudier wrote:

A 3000 could easily beat a 2000, but could a 4000 easily beat a 3000?

It'd be the same result.

Statistically speaking, in a long match between a 3000 and a 4000, the 4000 would win hundreds of games in a row before the 3000 won a single game (1 win for every 315 losses, to be precise).

The 3000 would certainly put up a stronger fight (and the games would last longer) than a 2000 vs. 3000, but the 4000 would still dominate all the same.

  1. A 4000 or even 4 00000000000 rated engine can not beat a 3000 315 out of 316 times.  I think the 3000 is strong enough to save more than 100 draws out of 316 against unlimited power. Anish Giri can save 100 draws against whatever you put him up against in a 316 game match.

That's the point I was trying to make. There's a certain level, where the players are so good, that the game will be equal, regardless of the "difference". There's a finite number of moves in chess, but an infinite number of possible ratings. If one player can see a billion moves ahead, and the other can see a trillion moves ahead, the game will still probably be only 200 ish move anyway, so it doesn't really matter.

I agree, and we have the 50 move rule, and also threefold repetition that will make it hard to play 200 moves + games with a win.

DjonniDerevnja
drmrboss wrote:

Chess is so drawish that experts engine testers predict perfects engine elo would be between 3800-4500. It is so easy  to draw  beyond 3500+ level. There is around 95% draw among top engines in long time control in fair opening book + endgame Table base.

Perfect engines ratings will never beyond 4500 , compared to stockfish. ( current stockfish rating in 16 cores at long time control is assumed 3500).

And if the 4500 superengine plays open enginetournaments she will meet new and fresh 3000s giving her a draw now and then, which will cost maybe 4 ratingpoints every time (i donot know how much a draw do cost, 4 points is only a guess).

EndgameEnthusiast2357
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
EndgameStudier wrote:
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
Brixed wrote:
EndgameStudier wrote:

A 3000 could easily beat a 2000, but could a 4000 easily beat a 3000?

It'd be the same result.

Statistically speaking, in a long match between a 3000 and a 4000, the 4000 would win hundreds of games in a row before the 3000 won a single game (1 win for every 315 losses, to be precise).

The 3000 would certainly put up a stronger fight (and the games would last longer) than a 2000 vs. 3000, but the 4000 would still dominate all the same.

  1. A 4000 or even 4 00000000000 rated engine can not beat a 3000 315 out of 316 times.  I think the 3000 is strong enough to save more than 100 draws out of 316 against unlimited power. Anish Giri can save 100 draws against whatever you put him up against in a 316 game match.

That's the point I was trying to make. There's a certain level, where the players are so good, that the game will be equal, regardless of the "difference". There's a finite number of moves in chess, but an infinite number of possible ratings. If one player can see a billion moves ahead, and the other can see a trillion moves ahead, the game will still probably be only 200 ish move anyway, so it doesn't really matter.

I agree, and we have the 50 move rule, and also threefold repetition that will make it hard to play 200 moves + games with a win.

Well engines can calculate hundreds of moves ahead, so the 50 move rule isn't useful here. If players could see a hundred moves ahead, the 50 move rule wouldn't exist, because instead of just random moves, players would actually be winning those hard endgames! Engines can see those mate in 78s...etc, so the 50 move rule isn't necessary anyway.

EndgameEnthusiast2357
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
drmrboss wrote:

Chess is so drawish that experts engine testers predict perfects engine elo would be between 3800-4500. It is so easy  to draw  beyond 3500+ level. There is around 95% draw among top engines in long time control in fair opening book + endgame Table base.

Perfect engines ratings will never beyond 4500 , compared to stockfish. ( current stockfish rating in 16 cores at long time control is assumed 3500).

And if the 4500 superengine plays open enginetournaments she will meet new and fresh 3000s giving her a draw now and then, which will cost maybe 4 ratingpoints every time (i donot know how much a draw do cost, 4 points is only a guess).

Rating is relative. That's what makes this complicated here. If chess turns out to be a theoretical win for white and not a draw, then everytime tow PERFECT engines play, white will winning, costing the other rating points even tho there is no way she could have won anyway.

DjonniDerevnja
macer75 wrote:
EndgameStudier wrote:
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
Brixed wrote:
 

That's the point I was trying to make. There's a certain level, where the players are so good, that the game will be equal, regardless of the "difference". There's a finite number of moves in chess, but an infinite number of possible ratings. If one player can see a billion moves ahead, and the other can see a trillion moves ahead, the game will still probably be only 200 ish move anyway, so it doesn't really matter.

But why is 3000 elo anywhere close to that level of "good"? The Alpha-zero match demonstrated, if nothing else, that there is still a lot of room for improvement for modern engines. They aren't anywhere close to being perfect chess-playing machines, so why would 3000 - or even 4000, for that matter - be the point where someone can force a draw against perfect play?

 I wish Anish Giri, one of the best ever to save a draw, could answer here.  He is only ca 2800 rated, and holds draws against  much, Or lets give Elias Hulleberg Sidali a try, when he was ca 1500 or 1700 he did draw an IM in a longchess tournament game, and also drew seveal other higher rated players. My guess is that a 2800 can save the draw with white at leat in 2 out of ten games regardless of their opponents strenght if they fight for draw from move one and do not overpush.

EndgameEnthusiast2357
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
macer75 wrote:
EndgameStudier wrote:
DjonniDerevnja wrote:
Brixed wrote:
 

That's the point I was trying to make. There's a certain level, where the players are so good, that the game will be equal, regardless of the "difference". There's a finite number of moves in chess, but an infinite number of possible ratings. If one player can see a billion moves ahead, and the other can see a trillion moves ahead, the game will still probably be only 200 ish move anyway, so it doesn't really matter.

But why is 3000 elo anywhere close to that level of "good"? The Alpha-zero match demonstrated, if nothing else, that there is still a lot of room for improvement for modern engines. They aren't anywhere close to being perfect chess-playing machines, so why would 3000 - or even 4000, for that matter - be the point where someone can force a draw against perfect play?

 I wish Anish Giri, one of the best ever to save a draw, could answer here.  He is only ca 2800 rated, and holds draws against  much, Or lets give Elias Hulleberg Sidali a try, when he was ca 1500 or 1700 he did draw an IM in a longchess tournament game, and also drew seveal other higher rated players.

This, and the puzzles I posted that the engines couldn't solve, proves engines could still be greatly improved.

SmyslovFan

If you were talking about Go, which has a winner in almost every game, then the discussion of ever-increasing ratings would make sense. But in the context of chess, the conversation runs into the rules of the game. 

 

If you ignore the nature of chess, it's easy to create a scenario with almost any Elo rating.

EndgameEnthusiast2357
SmyslovFan wrote:

If you were talking about Go, which has a winner in almost every game, then the discussion of ever-increasing ratings would make sense. But in the context of chess, the conversation runs into the rules of the game. 

 

If you ignore the nature of chess, it's easy to create a scenario with almost any Elo rating.

What rule of chess am I ignoring? The 50 move rule doesn't apply when it comes to engines.