Candidates day by day

Each round of the candidates ripples through the tournament. I don't want to analyse the chess just consider its impacts (feel free to join in).

An unambitious Nepo. Nepo went for a quick draw with Abasov. Abasov was the instigator of the trades (which was sensible) but Nepo gave him the option. Nepo started the last two candidates by winning with black, so it's not exactly business as usual. Seems he's not trying to force stuff and respects Abasov more than pre-tournament analysts did.

Hikaru was trying to force something. He struggled to justify his pawn sacrifice and gave Caruana a genuine edge. Due to time trouble, Caruana stayed safe and let Hikaru survive. I think Caruana will be disappointed, you can't let nice positions slip away so easily in such an event. Hikaru did defend well, but the amount of risk he took is worrying, it nearly backfired.

Firouzja went crazy and didn't lose. He even had a great opportunity to pressure Prag (31 Rge2 forces some challenging moves to merely survive) but missed it with time trouble. It's not as bad as Caruana's missed opportunity, because it was a sharp move in a swingy game (while Caruana had a clearly better position for multiple moves). Prag got a draw with black in a sharp game where he did create some chances (his “mistake” that gave up his momentum was minor). Both will be pleased; it does feel like Firouzja overall will take more away because it proves he can play his chess even on the highest stage.

Vidit vs Gukesh was better than a 21 move draw sounds. Vidit started solid but did try some aggressive manoeuvres. Gukesh avoided complications and took the draw. Frankly black would have been slightly better it seems, so it's the right choice. Gukesh playing a solid first game is sensible as a candidate’s newbie. Vidit got a nice position as black and didn’t really waste it.

Firouzja got away with playing his style, and it seems Abasov's tournament might be more comfortable than expected, so overall they'll be happy. Caruana can only be disappointed given that he missed a clear opportunity. 

Caruana vs Abasov is the most likely to be entertaining, Caruana really needs to win with white against the lowest rated player. Nepo vs Firouzja is a worrying game for Firouzja fans, he's facing one of the favourites with black, overpushing could end his candidates (one doesn't come back from the negatives to win in the candidates) and I think Nepo will play into that. I expect the other two games to be rather solid, although Hikaru might try something.

@1

"Seems he's not trying to force stuff"
++ The most important to win the Candidates' is to avoid losses and to win if given the oppportunity. Forcing stuff and losing is far worse than drawing.

Agreed, it's a sensible tactic. It's why I'm worried about Firouzja's and Naka's choices, and didn't list Nepo's draw to the bottom seed as a bad result.

You do have to win eventually, but it's too early to go crazy, especially with black. Although he didn't have to go into such a rapidly drawing line

Goodness me!

At fIrst I thought "Oh yeah Hikaru punted it and lost" turns out he didn't. He was just outplayed by astounding prep. Hikaru didn't play perfectly and was given a handful of opportunities, but it was mostly just Vidit's brilliance that decided the outcome. Vidit is the real deal, Hikaru's in a bad position scorewise but it wasn't due to terrible play so there's some hope for playing well in the rest of the tournament.

Saying FIrouzja self destructed would only be half true. I do think he played some odd moves, but Nepo played ambitious chess from the opening and Firouzja defended well then crumbled (he was even better). All in all I think Nepo should be really proud, but I think FIrouzja's defeat is genuinely worrying.

Prag came to fight, sac after sac after sac. All theoretically justified. But Gukesh defended so well and Prag slipped up. Gukesh has taken a solid draw and won with great play, he's playing a sensible candidates, I don't think he'll win this one but I can't imagine him not winning one with this level of maturity. It makes sense for Prag to go for the win with white against one of the theoretically weaker players of the field but it really backfired.

Caruana Abasov was what you expected. Abasov was outclassed by Caruana, it was due to one poor choice then one move "blunder" but really it was just being incapable of the near perfection expected at the top level. This is what I expected for Abasov games coming in.

With four winners and four losers the lines are drawn, I'd say that Nepo and Caruana stand out, not necessarily for the win quality but for the fact that they were for me the tournament favourites, and the other "favourites" (Hikaru and Firouzja) are now 2 wins behind. I still don't think an India's going to win this cycle (their time will come) but they're certainly proving that they're jaw dropping players even now. Firouzja's candidates might be over. Hikaru's main problem is his ranking, Firouzja's is his play.

Prag played a lovely aggressive game. As the last round has shown it's probably not a winning tactic on the long run, but it is beautiful and Vidit wouldn't hang on. I still think both of the players are none factors in terms of winning, But if Prag keeps being a three results player he could define who wins the candidates.

Gukesh got a nice comfortable positional advantage against Nepo. It slowly fizzled out, but it's a great sign that he can get something nice against a top player. Nepo was just being Nepo, fast and solid enough.

Fabi took a swing at Firouzja that was well countered.

Abasov Hikaru played a dull draw. Abasov practically forced it. It'll be interesting to see if there's anyone Abasov tries to beat while playing white. Hikaru's still in as much trouble and wasn't willing to take a risk.

Fabi and Nepo will be pleased with this stability, it's too early to say if Firouzja is going to spiral. Hikaru now needs to beat a decent player to even reach +0 in the first half.